Sometimes a ferocious rejection gets sprinkled in, but for the most part, highlights focus on offense. Do you remember the last time Sportscenter’s Top 10 included a fundamentally sound boxout or some solid help defense? I didn’t think so.

While offense rules the regular season, the perception among fans is that once the playoffs begin, teams turn up the defensive pressure. We’ve all heard it before, defense wins championships, right?

But is that perception a reality? We looked back in our archives to answer the question, Do NBA teams really clamp down defensively once the Larry O’Brien Trophy is within reach?

The table below compares the percentage of NBA games that have gone Under the total since the start of the 2005-06 season.

*Pinnacle’s closing lines were used to determine O/U records, Units Won/Lost and Return on Investment (ROI).

Our data shows that since the 2005-06 season tipped off, playoff games have gone Under the total at a higher rate than regular season games.

With 53.5% of games going Under, the playoffs also provided good value for sports bettors over that span, producing a profit of 22.8 units and a 4.3% Return on Investment (ROI).

We also analyzed the current NBA season to see if these trends have continued through the first round of the playoffs.

The table below compares the percentage of NBA games that have gone Under the total (as of 5/9) since the beginning of the 2011-12 season.

While the percentage of regular season games that went Under this year (51%) is a bit higher than the average since 2005 (49.8%), betting every Under still would have lost just over 6 units.

Conversely, betting the Under for every 2012 playoff game (as of 5/9) would have produced a profit of 4.42 units and a nice ROI of 17.7%.

There are certainly other factors that can contribute to these numbers, but at the very least, sports bettors should be aware of this trend going forward in order to maximize value when wagering on the NBA.

*Pinnacle’s closing lines were used to determine O/U records, Units Won/Lost and Return on Investment.

We’re just over a month into the 2012 MLB Season and there have already been more surprises than an M. Night Shyamalan movie. As a result, bookmakers have reacted by moving one team to a 19/4 favorite to win the World Series.

In the AL East, the standings are topsy turvy with the Baltimore Orioles in first with a 19-9 mark, while the Red Sox are the cellar dwellers at 11-16. The Angels — who were one of the pre-season favorite to win the World Series — have struggled mightily to the tune of a 12-17 record. Albert Pujols, who signed for $254 million in the off-season, did not hit a home run during the first month of the season and currently owns a batting average south of the Mendoza line.

On the flip side, The Machine’s former team has been one of this season’s most pleasant surprises. Terrific performances from Carlos Beltran, Rafael Furcal and David Freese have propelled the Cardinals into first place in the NL Central and boosted their title odds across the board.

So how has all of this early action affected each team’s title chances? The table below examines the movement of Bovada’s MLB futures between April 6th and May 9th.

As you can see there has been a good deal of shake-up in the futures market. The Texas Rangers — behind a 20-10 start — have moved from 10/1 to 19/4 and are now the favorites to win it all. Another interesting observation is that the Detroit Tigers actually moved up to the number two spot in the standings despite seeing their odds drop from 15/2 to 17/2. The explanation for this is the newfound parity around the league. Teams like the Nationals, Dodgers, and the aforementioned Cardinals were not considered to be strong title contenders before the season began. After a month of action, those three teams lead the NL East, West and Central, respectively.

Of course in any game where there are winners, there are inherently losers. These early season duds include the Red Sox, Cubs and Twins who have all performed woefully below expectations. Although the outlook for Minnesota and Chicago wasn’t particularly optimistic this year, each team has managed to underperform their very modest projections. The Cubs opened the season at 40/1 to win the World Series, however a 12-18 start has them seven games back and transformed them into a longshot at 150/1. The Twins were also not expected to set the league ablaze, but many believed that a healthy Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer would allow Minnesota to compete in a top-heavy AL Central. However, after 30 games the Twins have a league-worst 8-21 mark which has sent their future odds plummeting down to 200/1.

While the Red Sox join these teams as early season disappointments, their failures are difficult to compare. After last year’s late season collapse, analysts anticipated the team would quickly bounce back and prove that they belonged amongst the league’s elite. Unfortunately, the Sox bullpen has been woeful, starting pitching has been inconsistent, and the team has dropped to the bottom of the AL East standings with a 12-17 record. Still, oddsmakers know this team still has the talent to compete for the World Series which is why their odds currently sit at 18/1.

As for this season’s most compelling Cinderella story? That would have to be the Baltimore Orioles. Prior to the season, many projected the Yankees, Rays and Sox would all compete for the playoffs. Even the Blue Jays were viewed as an up-and-coming organization — one that was loaded with young talent that could potentially help them compete this season. The Orioles had made no headway via free agency despite rumors that they were looking to make a slash by adding a premier free agent, say…Albert Pujols. They were an afterthought to some, and a non-entity to others. Slightly over a month later and the Orioles sit atop the AL East standings with a 19-11 record. This hot-start has pushed Baltimore from 150/1 to 50/1 at Bovada.

We will continue to monitor this movement throughout the season but, for bettors looking for value in the futures market, re-examining these pre-season odds can provide insight as to who oddsmakers viewed as the league’s elite teams before the season began and where there may be potential value.

The Sports Investing Index is based on our Square Play Betting System, which focuses on maximizing contrarian value in the sports betting marketplace by highlighting the day’s most lopsided games, in terms of the Public Betting Trends.

NHL was the index’s best performer in April, earning 13%, while both the NBA and MLB were down slightly.

As you can see in the graph above, the index began in 2003 and has shown steady growth over the past 10 years.

While analysts hand out grades and debate sleepers and busts, which three teams have bookmakers identified as the real winners from last week’s NFL Draft?

We examined Pinnacle’s future odds before and after the draft to determine which teams were on the rise, and which were on the decline, and what we saw was shocking. Only four teams saw their odds increase (Dallas, Denver, Detroit and New England) while every other team saw their odds drop slightly.

The table below compares the change in future odds at Pinnacle to the draft grades given by ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Yahoo! Sports’ Jason Cole:

The Cowboys were the most notable movers, and this is due in large part to their acquisition of Morris Claiborne. Dallas dealt their first round pick (#14) and their second round selection (#45) to St. Louis for the sixth overall pick which they used on the former LSU cornerback. Claiborne is regarded as a shutdown, cover corner with excellent ball skills and should immediately help upgrade a Cowboys secondary that ranked 23rd in the league against the pass.

Detroit was another intriguing team — especially considering most analysts seem lukewarm on the Lions draft. Last week, we projected the top 10 based on future odds at Bovada and OT Riley Reiff was favored to be taken by the Bills at #10. However, the Lions were able to snag the Iowa product with the 23rd overall pick. This selection seems to be an excellent value and, perhaps more importantly, should help QB Matthew Stafford remain upright and under center.

The selection of WR Ryan Broyles also raised many eyebrows amongst commentators. After selecting Titus Young last season to join a receiving core that included Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson, the Lions were not thought to be in the market for another receiver. In addition, Broyles suffered a season ending injury when he tore the ACL in his left knee — making the former Sooner a very high-risk pick. The silver lining? With 349 career catches (including 131 in his last full season) the 5’10 receiver holds the FBS career receptions record.

Going into the draft the Patriots trailed only the Packers as Super Bowl favorites and seemed unlikely to climb any higher regardless of the draft outcome. They owned two first round draft pick but — given New England’s past behavior — seemed unlikely to use both picks. Bucking tradition, the Pats actually traded up twice and were able to address their needs on defense by selecting Syracuse OLB Chandler Jones and Alabama LB Dont’a Hightower. These two versatile players will join a historically bad defense that allowed 411 yards per game — good for 31st in the league. The Pats spent their next four picks on defense, before using a late seventh round selection on offense (Northwestern WR Jeremy Ebert). This includes the selection of Rugby standout Nate Ebner and troubled CB Alfonzo Dennard, who was considered a borderline first round talent before character concerns caused his stock to plummet.

It was surprising to see only four teams had their future prices raised and it is also worth noting that we cannot use solely future odds to analyze the success teams had in this draft. Like any draft, that information will not be clear until years down the line. Many teams selected players based on potential, and will not reap the benefits from their selection until those players begin to develop. Still, with everybody and their mother offering their two cents on the draft it’s interesting to follow the money to determine who was truly a winner this weekend.

• Unfortunately, Derrick Rose of the Chicago Bulls will miss the rest of the season (and the playoffs) — damaging the Bulls’ chances of winning the NBA Title.  Our analysts note, however, that injuries often create an over-reaction on the Vegas lines.
• Please check out this interesting article that shows how both Kobe Bryant’s — and LeBron James’ — teams have done ATS since 2006.  LeBron may not be bringing home the championships, but he has been bringing his playoff betting backers some bacon!
• Today’s NBA games feature the Utah Jazz as a potential contrarian play visiting the San Antonio Spurs.

Please login to your Sports Insights account to see if a play is triggered in the NBA playoffs today.  Let’s also take a look at the NHL games today.

• There are two games in the NHL — and both offer fairly lopsided betting action.
• In Game One of their Round 2 playoff series, the New Jersey Devils are tallying up just 35% of the money line bets, visiting the Philadelphia Flyers.
• In the other game, the Phoenix Coyotes are collecting just 24% of the bets, as home underdogs — hosting the Nashville Predators.  Interestingly, Phoenix leads the series one game to none — and is the higher seed (#3 vs. #4 for Nashville) — but is the home underdog.

We note that Sports Insights’ contrarian methods have had a successful sports betting season in hockey, with NHL Square Plays up about +27 units during the 2011-12 season.