You can now share systems with other Bet Labs members. By clicking on the Think Tank button from the Bet Labs Home page, you will be able to see all shared systems.
You can view an introduction video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gTMohpHVDU
If you have any questions, please let us know.
asked 03 Mar, 13:11
Great idea ! I just shared a few myself . Happy to participate!
answered 03 Mar, 19:59
Awesome, Thanks for putting in place!
answered 04 Mar, 07:56
Thanks for sharing systems. We're also looking for feedback on how to improve the Think Tank. Post your feedback here.
answered 04 Mar, 09:57
Great work, thanks!
answered 04 Mar, 15:33
Can you post this system in the Think Tank?
answered 05 Mar, 04:53
Think Tank is a great idea.
I see many systems that are just plain awful. Lots of back fitting, one good year and many losing years (the good year is this year, as the system is hopelessly back fired).
It is apparent that many don't know how to make a successful system. I would urge those people to look at the systems that are profitable every year or close to it. Does the system make sense?? Cherry picking profitable ML amounts or randomly selecting win/loss streaks is not how a system is made. Finding random spread percentages isn't either, especially when the results are up and down.
You should first start with a premise. Home/Away, dog/fav. From there use various filters. Days between games, win streaks, win/loss last game, previous home/away or previous home/fav. Win percentage, ats percentages.
Totals same thing. Spread ranges, etc...
You need to create a system you would be confident betting on. Finding random filters, with inconsistent results....is that what you want to wager on??
There are several good systems in the think tank, you just have to sift through the lousy ones to find them. Happy Hunting.
answered 06 Mar, 19:21
I'd like to echo the sentiments of the previous poster smartplays1127 -- it's very important to have a theory guiding your betting system and to make sure that you're not custom fitting the data. In fact, I would recommend everybody read the article, "3 Common Characteristics of Winning Betting Systems" which you can find here: http://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/3-characteristics-of-winning-betting-systems
If a system has one highly profitable season from several years ago and stagnant returns since then, it's likely that oddsmakers have already adapted and it would not be advisable to bet that system.
answered 06 Mar, 19:26
I hope I didn't sound too harsh, but I really wanted to drive the point home. I have spent over 100 hours creating systems, refining them, etc.. and it takes a lot of work. This isn't a magic software that can create profits with little work. You need to put in the time, think about your premise, and go from there. There are no short cuts, which by looking at some systems people are doing.
I have shared several systems in Think Tank and other community threads. They have been doing very well and I am proud of the work I have put in. Its a labor of love, and when you love to do something and have a passion for it, its less of a grind.
I may post a few more, but the Think Tank isn't a place to show up and create a successful portfolio while others do the work. Its a place to get some ideas on what truly works, and is a place to help stimulate creativity in those having troubles coming up with systems themselves.
answered 06 Mar, 19:34
Thanks for the comments SmartPlays11 what you have said is true there are some over-fitted cherry picked systems that will probably not be predictive of future success in the think tank. When we came up with the idea of the think tank the goal was to make everyone who uses Bet Labs a better betting analyst. Really that has always been the vision of Sports Insights. The way we thought we could do this is to have a healthy discussion on what is or is not a good system. When people like you provide feedback on a system we want that to help the newer users learn about system creation, back testing, and all the other things necessary to be a long-term successful bettor. We are also providing our feedback on system so people can learn and grow. That is what will lead to long term betting success.
answered 06 Mar, 19:58
Hopefully my previous comment will give people an idea on where to start, and which filters they can use to create winning systems.
Someone named Troutman just posted 20 or so systems, and they have no predictive value whatsoever. This is exactly what I was talking about, how not to build a system. Cherry-picking individual pythagorean numbers, or individual ML prices, bet percentages, etc.. has no predictive value. None. Now, if you can create a range of numbers, that is something entirely different. O/U range, win percentage range, etc... These have a better chance of being predictive.
I have posted 6 systems. Lets take a look at a simple one, MLB. A 51% or better home dog vs a 60% or better opponent. Baseball is a great sport to build underdog systems, even the worst teams beat the best teams, often at inflated odds. So if I can find a good team that wins often, at a price - even good teams are dogs at times, that is my goal. So I filtered opp win % and found a threshold that works. 60%. Last year 2013 the record was 17-10 (ROI 33%) for a +892. Almost 9 units of profit. I'll take that every time. Now the important part...is that an anomaly or does it win every year or close to it??
I like to back test my systems for 5-6 years. 10 years isn't necessary, as systems can run their course. Over the last 6 years, it has won 5 years. The last 6 years profits are: 892, 1236, -277, 1186, 1121, 1201. The 3 years prior (7-9 yrs ago) to that were losses of 2-5 units. I'm fine with that, as the past 6 years have been phenomenal. Each winning year has hit at over 50% wins, if you can find a dog system with these win percentages you have a very good system.
There you have it. Not overly complicated, it makes sense, its rational, and it wins. Year after year. Thats what you are looking for when building a system.
answered 07 Mar, 00:27
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Asked: 03 Mar, 13:11
Seen: 921 times
Last updated: 15 Mar, 13:58