Behind The Betting Lines 10/07/2004
Vol. 6
by T.B
Courtesy of SportsInsights.com
10/07/2004 4:22PM EST
Behind The Lines Vol. 6
Can we just stop taking baseball action altogether? Would anybody have a problem with that? Seriously, if you’re not winning money right now it’s time to get a new habit altogether. Go hunt, go fish, go play pinochle, whatever. But put down the paper, stop checking the ticker, and go buy your wife something nice.
If you are one of the many who is pummeling the sportsbooks right now you might want to check into their financial solvency right about now. Now, I’m not talking about any of the Sports Insights’ partners featured on this site. Books like Oasis Casino, Gameday and WWTS have been around and can take a hit like the one that’s being dealt right now. But make no mistake, it’s a BLOODBATH. Makes the French Revolution look like a walk in the park.
Our recap of the past week will illustrate what I’m talking about. The cream of the NFL crop lived up to all the hype and did a number on the books early. The Eagles, a 9 pt. favorite at Chicago, eked one out 19-9. Great game for the Sports Insight member though. While Pinnacle and Oasis were hanging their nuts out there with a -9 and taking all that action, Sports Interaction was running -10.5. Great spot to get the Eagles -9 and the Bears + 10.5.
And the top teams in the AFC added on to the misery. If there’s any fans in New England that still think the Patriots would have been better off if they kept Bledsoe over Brady (and incredibly there are), they should be forced to become Dolphins fans. Check that, the Bills coaches should be forced to do the same. 4th and 1 on the 20 yard line, chance to tie and they call a BOOTLEG for Lead Foot? A TD there forces overtime and a likely game-winning field goal by either team, which would have been just fine in this corner.
And Indianapolis just get their foot on the gas pedal against Jacksonville. They didn’t set the world on fire and score 50, but they easily made their number of -3.5 by beating the Jags 24-17. The biggest mover of the week was Pittsburgh. The Steelers opened the week -3.5, and by kickoff the number was all the way up to -6. They too, hurt the Man a little more by beating up on Cincy.
And lastly the Sunday night game was a bleepin’ MONSTER. That game could have single-handedly turned the whole day around but it wasn’t meant to be. The Rams raced out to a 24-0 lead and easily held off the hapless 49ers. Add it all up and the books are licking their wounds. Monday night’s game and the baseball playoffs (traditionally a great stretch for the books) haven’t helped either. So congrats if you’re taking part in the money party.
The Previews
This spot’s only letdown of the week came in the Miami-Georgia Tech game. They were ready to string up Brock Berlin in ‘Cane country but for one day he actually played like he knew what he was doing. Miami’s stifling D took care of the rest. Our NFL plays were right on though as the Jets made their number against Miami and the Teaser of the Week with Indy and Chicago was also a winner. Looking at this weekend’s games we’ll start with …
FSU @ Syracuse – Sat. 7:00 PM EST (ESPN2)
Usually I like to go with the ‘dogs in the college ball. However, I also have a simple rule too: when a very good team plays a very bad team, take the very good team. Syracuse has a few wins this year, against the likes of Buffalo, Cincinnati and Rutgers. Since losing that heartbreaker to Miami, the ‘Noles have turned it up a notch.
Looking at our Sports Insights bet graph, the line is -19.5 and the action is split down the middle: 51% on FSU and 49% on the ‘Cuse. Nineteen-and-a-half might seem like a big number here. It’s not. If the game climbs up to 3 touchdowns you may be tempted to come in on the home team. Don’t.
Baltimore @ Washington Sun. 8:30 (ESPN)
This is an interesting game for a number of reasons. First and foremost looking at the graphs, it’s the most lopsided game of the NFL slate. A whopping 80% of the action is coming in on the Ravens. Second, how about the Jamal Lewis situation? Isn’t it great to be a celebrity in this country? First Martha Stewart gets to pick when she starts her country club sentence and now this guy gets to wait until after the season finishes to start serving his. What a message to send to the kids,
Surprisingly there hasn’t been much movement in this game. It opened Baltimore -1 and that’s where it stands. I think the oddsmakers are looking to even the score this week with the players, and they’ll try to invite as much action as they can on the Ravens. Keep an eye if it moves even further in Washington’s favor, then get down on the ‘Skins.
Teaser of the Week
OK, I’m going to violate one of the Golden Rules of sportsbetting. When a line is so obviously wrong, and the game looks too easy then bet the other side. For instance, Tennessee at Georgia this week. Tennessee got spanked in their big showdown against with Auburn last week, AT HOME. Meanwhile Georgia, after looking lackluster in a couple of games, positively embarrassed LSU last week, 45-16.
So the game is at Georgia and the line is only 12.5? Right now, the players don’t know where to go in this game as it’s dead even checking the betting graph. Again, this violates one of the most basic rules that a bookie sees sitting behind the board. That’s why we’ll stick it in a teaser with …. no surprise here: Indianapolis. Now the Sandman can get on me about Indy instead of BYU.
The Raiders looked hapless against the Texans offense last week and now they travel to Indy to face the best offense in the league. This game is tremendously lopsided on the graph, 80% of the bets are on Indy at the NORMAL spread of -9. The extra points are too much to pass up here. As always, enjoy the games this weekend … T.B.