MLB Marketwatch Edition 3 2012

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2012 edition of MLB Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the MLB betting market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record: 1-1 (+0.22 units)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Edition 2

In our last edition of Marketwatch, Vance Worley threw a gem for Philadelphia, striking out 11 batters in seven scoreless innings against San Diego. With the stellar performance from their starter, the Phillies’ only needed two runs to get the win over the Padres and Marketwatch.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians

In Friday night’s series opener, the Los Angeles Angels and Jered Weaver (3-0, 2.43 ERA, 28 K, 2 BB) will travel to Cleveland to take on the Indians with Justin Masterson on the mound (0-2, 6.65 ERA, 15 K, 12 BB).  The Angels have endured a difficult start to the season, sitting at 6-13 and losers of four straight games.

With the addition of Albert Pujols, the Angels were among the popular offseason picks to win the World Series; however, betting $100 on each of their first 19 games would net bettors a loss of $1,246.

The Indians come into the contest at a respectable 9-8, but are reeling from two straight home losses to the struggling Royals.

Los Angeles opened as a -140 favorite at Pinnacle and, with their ace Weaver on the mound, it’s no surprise that public bettors have been hammering the Angels.  According to Sports Insights’ MLB Betting Trends, 87% of moneyline bets and 77% of runline (spread) wagers have taken the road favorite Angels.

The public betting chart below is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page to all Live Odds and All-Pro members and shows a breakdown of betting percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks.

With so many moneyline bets coming in on the Angels, we’d expect the line to increase.  But despite the lopsided betting data, the moneyline on the Angels at Pinnacle is currently hovering just above the opening number of -140, at -143.  This indicates to us that even though there are much fewer bets coming in on Cleveland than Los Angeles, big money wagers have been placed on Cleveland to keep the line where it is.  At books such as CRIS and Carib, the line has actually dropped from the opening number.

This reverse-line movement is usually a clear indicator that sharp money has come in on Cleveland and our MLB Betting Systems agree, triggering a Smart Money Move at Olympic (55%, +0.98 units).

The line history graph below, which is available to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting percentages and MLB Betting Systems have affected the line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Pinnacle is currently offering the best price on Cleveland at +135, at the time of publication, but be sure shop for the best line and grab the best number available before getting down on this game.

After going 1-1 while fading Philadelphia and Vance Worley in our first two editions of MLB Marketwatch, we’re switching gears to the American League while betting against a huge public favorite, following the sharp money and grabbing the Indians as a home underdog.

Game to Watch (1-1, +0.22 units)
Cleveland Indians +135 (Pinnacle)

Enjoy the games!