MLB Marketwatch Edition 5 2012

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2012 edition of MLB Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the MLB betting market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record: 3-1 (+2.87 units)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true line value. Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

View Last Week’s Column

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins

This week’s edition of marketwatch focuses on the American League once again, as the Minnesota Twins take on the visiting Toronto Blue Jays. Kyle Drabek (2-3, 3.34 ERA) will be on the mound for Toronto, as he looks to avoid his fourth consecutive defeat for the first time of his young career. Starting for the Twins is Nick Blackburn (0-4, 6.84 ERA), who has struggled mightily this year although he does post decent numbers in his career against Toronto (1-1, 2.33 ERA).

The Twins are an MLB-worst 8-23 on the year, and are just 4-11 at home, while Toronto sports a nice 18-14 record overall and 10-7 on the road.  Minnesota is 2-8 in its last 10 games while Toronto has won 13 of 15 in Minnesota since 2008.  The Blue Jays also took the first game of the four-game set easily, 6-2, behind a solid outing by starter Henderson Alvarez.  We will be buying low on the Twins here and selling high on the Blue Jays.

Toronto opened as a -133 favorite at Pinnacle and is receiving the overwhelming majority of public bets.  According to Sports Insights’ MLB Betting Trends, 85% of moneyline bets, 90% of runline bets and 81% of parlay wagers have taken the visiting Blue Jays.

The public betting chart below is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page to all Live Odds and All-Pro members and shows a breakdown of moneyline Betting Percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks.

While roughly 4 out of 5 bets on this game have been placed on Toronto, the line has not moved off the opening number of -133 at Pinnacle.  This indicates that sharp money has been placed on Minnesota in order to keep the line where it’s at.  At sportsbooks such as Sportsbook.com and BetUS, the line has actually dropped from the opening number, which further exemplifies that sharp money has come in on the Twins across the market.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the public Betting Percentages have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

At the time of publication, Sports Interaction is offering the best price for the Twins at +135, but as always, be sure to shop for the best line before getting down on this game.

Game to Watch (3-1, +2.87 units)
Minnesota Twins +135 (SIA)

Enjoy the games!