NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 3 2011
9/16/2011
Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record = 1-0-1 (100%)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Recapping Week 2
Thanks to the playmaking ability of quarterback Steele Jantz, Marketwatch rode Iowa State to a triple-overtime victory in Week 2. Jantz, who threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns, capped off the 3-point win over Iowa with a 4-yard touchdown run, earning the straight up victory as 7-point underdogs.
Wisconsin vs. Northern Illinois (Game Being Played at Soldier Field)
With NC State transfer Russell Wilson behind center, Wisconsin has cruised through its first two games, outscoring UNLV and Oregon State, 86-17, combined. Wilson has been nothing short of stellar for the Badgers, completing nearly 80% of his passes for 444 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
After pounding Army in its season opener, Northern Illinois lost a shootout to Kansas last week, 45-42. Senior quarterback Chandler Harnish was outstanding, completing 27 of 33 passes for 315 yards and two touchdowns. Harnish also did damage with his legs, rushing for 89 yards and three touchdowns.
Unfortunately for the Huskies, Harnish couldn’t do anything about the porous Northern Illinois defense, which allowed Kansas to rack up 534 yards of total offense.
Wisconsin opened as a 16-point favorite at Olympic and is currently receiving 79% of spread bets and 91% of parlay wagers.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:
The lopsided College Football Betting Trends have pushed the Badgers to -17 at Olympic and -16.5 at the market-setting sportsbooks.
Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Systems triggered a Steam Move at CRIS (+8.57 units) on Northern Illinois, indicating that sharp money sees value with the big underdog.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
Since opening, the majority of spread bets (white line) have come down on Wisconsin. Even though the betting percentages have stayed very stable, the line bounced between -16 and -17 early in the week before settling at -16.5 on Wednesday.
Sports Interaction and Bodog are currently offering this game at +17.5, so make sure to shop for the best line, Bet Against the Public and take Northern Illinois at the best possible number.
Have Questions Regarding This Week’s Marketwatch Selection?
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Game to Watch (1-0-1)
Northern Illinois +17.5
Enjoy the games!
The Team at Sports Insights