NFL Marketwatch Week 10 2011-12
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com
The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of SportsInsights.com, with the goal of providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. The column takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, “A Contrarian’s Guide to Football Betting.“ SportsInsights.com is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books as well as recent articles comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.
The column is normally published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Saturday mornings. Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch
NFL Marketwatch Performance
Recap of Last Week’s “Game to Watch” (5-4 = 55.6%)
Last week’s NFL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Indianapolis Colts, disappointed us last weekend, and were never in the game – getting blown out 31-7 by the Atlanta Falcons. There is decent “parity” in the NFL, and on “any given Sunday” anything can happen. However, this time, the underdog did not cover. This dropped the NFL Marketwatch to 5-4 for the season. Since its inception more than six years ago, Sports Insights’ popular NFL Marketwatch column has produced a winning percentage of about 57%.
Sports Insights’ Square Plays and Best Bets have gotten off to a combined 27-25 record this season. Last season, Sports Insights’ contrarian methods of Betting Against the Public, including Square Plays, Best Bets, and Marketwatch had a solid NFL season, producing a combined winning percentage of about 55% with NFL Squares at 57%. Check out the SportsInsights.com Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.
Tracking Public Performance
After a difficult week in the previous week, the betting Public bounced back with a 6-4 record in lopsided-bet games last weekend. This brings the public’s cumulative record to a surprisingly solid 38-35 (52.1%) in lopsided-bet games this year. Atlanta, San Francisco, New Orleans, Green Bay, and Cincy were all big winners for “public” bettors. If it weren’t for Pittsburgh and Dallas failing to cover, it would have been a bloodbath for the sportsbooks this past week. Over the past six seasons, the public has been correct only about 48% of the time against the spread in “lopsided-bet” games, which are defined as games having 65% or more bets on one team.
Seattle Seahawks +7 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Besides the Green Bay Packers, this year’s NFL season has seen many teams “swing back and forth on the pendulum” between good and bad results. Even the New England Patriots are “mere mortals” at 4-4 “against the spread” this season. This is a sign of the parity that the NFL is historically proud of. We are using this angle for this week’s play, selling the Baltimore Ravens at a “recent high” (after a two-game winning streak) — and especially after their big win over Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football last weekend.
Similarly, we like “buying the Seahawks at a recent low” based on their 3-game losing streak. We spoke with one of our contacts, an offshore oddsmaker, who verified that, “… most of the bets are on the Ravens, but a few early sharps pushed the line down to Seattle +6.5.” Sports Insights’ live betting odds verify this betting action, with just 8% of all bets (including teasers and parlays) taking Seattle as a home underdog. CRIS opened betting at Seattle +7.5 but the early sharp action on Seattle has pushed the line lower. Some of the public books still have the game at Seattle +7.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the NFL Betting Trends, NFL Betting System plays and weather alerts have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
So, once again, we have a game that has very lopsided-betting activity — AND — smart money line movement. We will “bet against the public” and ride the coattails of the sharps – by taking the Seahawks, plus the points. Our NFL Marketwatch selection again falls into the 80/20 betting system highlighted by my article here — as well as a Wall Street Journal article highlighting Sports Insights last season.
Here are other reasons why we like the Seahawks this week:
- The Ravens’ past two wins have each been by just 3 points.
- Seattle played a good Dallas team “well” last week, but were “done in” by turnovers.
- As we mentioned above, this is a good “buy low, sell high” play.
- One of our mantras is that the “point spread is a great equalizer.” Baltimore has been scoring points this season, but historically does not have a high-powered offense.
- As a result, we like Seattle plus the 7 points, as a solid “live, home underdog.”
- As usual, we like NFL underdogs receiving at least 7 points.
If you shop around, you can grab the Seahawks at +7 at some “public books” such as SportsInterAction (SIA) or Bodog. SIA has the better odds corresponding with the +7 at the time this article was written.
If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try Sports Insights’ Premium Pro Membership. It should be another exciting NFL weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest Real Time Odds, NFL Betting Trends and NFL Betting System Picks.
I’ll be back next Saturday with the new edition of NFL Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com