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SportsInsights.com Article -- Betting Against
the Public and the NFL (2003-2007)
Over the years,
the NFL point-spread market seems to have gotten more
efficient. Years ago, the "smart money" would
"take the points" and play underdogs. In this article, we’ll take a look at how NFL underdogs
have done over the years. In
addition, we’ll study how SportsInsights.com’s strategy of
“Betting Against the Public” has added value over the years.
Our research is now based on over 2,500 games going back to
the 2001 NFL season. Our
database includes SIs' exclusive betting percentages going back
to the 2003 season.
The
information on this site is for entertainment and educational
purposes only. Use
of this information in violation of any federal, state, or local
laws is prohibited.
Take the Underdog?
Years ago, there
seemed to be an edge if a bettor took the underdog. We have seen academic
studies that verify the bias towards underdogs in
the NFL (as
well as in other major sports).
The past few seasons have seen some extremes in the NFL.
2005 saw underdogs perform poorly (favorites
covered at more than a 57% rate!).
And then 2006 saw the underdogs come back with a
vengeance, covering the point spread almost 56% of the time.
Over the past five years, dogs have covered the point spread at
a 51.2% rate -- a far cry from the low-to-mid 53% to 55%
win-rate we saw in the early 2000's.
Here is a table of NFL underdog performance over the past few years.
Table 1: NFL Underdogs vs. Point Spread
| Year |
NFL Underdogs |
| 2001 |
53.0% |
| 2002 |
55.8% |
| 2003 |
53.2% |
| 2004 |
50.0% |
| 2005 |
42.8% |
| 2006 |
55.9% |
| 2007 |
49.8% |
| 2003 - 2007 |
51.2% |
Betting Against the Public in the NFL
Above, we saw that betting on dogs would have resulted in a 51.2%
winning percentage over the past few years. If
you Bet
Against the Public (in the NFL, most of these plays would be
on the dog, at the 75% level), you would have hit 55.3% over the
same period (see Table 2, below).
Results are fairly consistent each year,
with Betting
Against the Public adding about 4% value per year.
This shows that Betting Against the Public can be beneficial to
your handicapping. As
you can see, the results can jump around from season to season.
This is partly due to the relatively low number of games
during the NFL Season. It’s
also the nature of any investment:
there is both risk
AND
return. We hope that our
readers and Members will use SportsInsights' tools and betting
percentages to help "put the wind in their handicapping
sails."
Table 2: Benefit of Betting Against Public (vs. Spread) at
75% Level
| Year |
All Dogs |
Dogs, Bet Against Public |
| 2003 |
53.2% |
61.8% |
| 2004 |
50.0% |
50.0% |
| 2005 |
42.8% |
48.1% |
| 2006 |
55.9% |
69.8% |
| 2007 |
49.8% |
53.7% |
| 2003 - 2007 |
51.2% |
55.3% |
Disclaimer
We do not guarantee that the trends and biases we’ve found will
continue to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any
serious academic research in the field of “market efficiencies”
recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear over time. Once
inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time
before the market corrects itself. We do not guarantee our data
is error-free. However, we’ve tried our best to make sure every
score and percentage is correct.
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