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Sports MarketWatch
MLB Edition
8/8/2008 4:00 PM EST
By The Team at
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's
edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition, where the Team
at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the
sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening
on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports
Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published weekly on
Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly
with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest
sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are
pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.
Sports Marketplace
– MLB Edition
Well, there’s not much to
say except that our Friday MarketWatch represents a small sample
of what we do during the week. Last week was a loser, with MLB
MarketWatch going 0-3. We’ll keep on plugging and eventually turn
the corner with good, value plays.
2008 MLB Games to
Watch: 11-23, 32.4%, -9.85 units
Sports MarketWatch
– MLB Games to Watch
Chicago White Sox +103 over Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have the “name and reputation” but the
White Sox have home field advantage. The public is betting on the
visiting Red Sox to the tune of almost 75% (including teasers and
parlays) in this match-up of playoff contenders.
Home field is a huge factor in MLB and this
edge has been even more apparent this year. The Red Sox are
playing .574 baseball – but are 7 games below .500 on the road!
Meanwhile, the first place White Sox are playing .558 ball but are a
sparkling 37-17 (better than .667 ball!) at home.
There is a hint of smart money on the White Sox in
this game, with the line moving slightly in the direction of the White
Sox – even with almost three-quarters of the bets landing on the Bosox.
We’ll take the Chisox at home with the “plus” odds at Matchbook.
Chicago White Sox +103(Matchbook)
San Francisco Giants +113 over LA Dodgers
With Manny arriving in Dodger-land, there is talk
that the Dodgers are now one of the elite powerhouses in MLB. Talk like
this often creates value on the other side – especially when the
opponent is a basement dweller like the SF Giants.
Barry Zito has been pitching better of late and
we’ll grab the Giants at home against a potentially over-valued Dodger
team. The Dodgers are polling a huge 85% of the votes – I mean “bets” –
so we’ll “bet against the public” and take the home team Giants.
San Francisco Giants +113
Oakland A’s +144 over Detroit Tigers
When you lose ten games in a row, you won’t have
much fan – or betting – support. The Oakland A’s have lost ten in a row
and have fallen out of the wild card race. On the other hand, Detroit
is still on the cusp of the wild card hunt.
Many bettors probably see this game as a dispirited
Oakland team that is giving up on the season – against a Detroit team
that still has an outside chance of making the playoffs. More than 80%
of the bets are on the home team Tigers. However, SportsInsights’
betting statistics indicate the existence of “smart money” taking the
Oakland A’s.
With most of the bets coming in on Detroit, the
line actually decreased from Detroit -165 at the open (CRIS) to the
current -158 at Cris. We like “betting against the public” and joining
the “smart money” on Oakland. The 10-game losing streak adds contrarian
value to this play.
Oakland A’s +144
Games to Watch
(11-23, -9.85 units)
Chicago White Sox +103(Matchbook)
San Francisco Giants +113
Oakland A’s +144
It should be another
exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch
picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday
with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at
SportsInsights.com
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