Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition
5/30/2008 5:30 PM EST
By The Team at
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of
the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights
gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever
wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an
all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will
be published weekly on Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the
line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about
which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a
look at what’s in store for upcoming games.
Sports Marketplace – MLB
Edition
Last weekend, the MLB MarketWatch was down just a
bit. The underdog selections we made competitive, but only the SF Giants
grabbed the win. Happily, the Giants were a +150 underdog, so we almost broke
even, going 1-2 (+1.5 units minus 2 units for 2 losses). The “plus odds” is one
of the reasons that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time.
Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams.
Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50% -- but
the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2008 MLB Games to Watch: 1-4,
20%, -2.5 units
*Source: SportsInsights.com
Sports MarketWatch – MLB
Games to Watch
Baltimore Orioles +135 over Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox remain overvalued this season, while the
Orioles are undervalued. SportsInsights’ exclusive betting percentages show
that the public continues this trend, with about 25% of the bets (including
teasers and parlays) on the visiting Red Sox in tonight’s game.
We note that the Red Sox, even while playing solid ball
(hovering at a winning percentage of just below .600 for most of the season),
are down few units for the season, “against the spread (ATS).” The Orioles,
playing .500 ball for the season, are up a few units ATS. That shows you the
“power of the moneyline.” We’ll take the undervalued Orioles as a live home
dog.
Baltimore Orioles +136 (Matchbook, after commission)
Minnesota Twins +100 over New York Yankees
The visiting NY Yankees are collecting almost 65% of the
bets over the Twins. The Yankees have been on a hot streak lately, but remain
surprisingly below .500!! The Twins, on the other hand, are playing .528 ball
and are two games out of first place.
We love getting “plus moneyline odds” on an underrated team
that is playing at home. The Yankees’ old warhorse – Mike Mussina – isn’t as
consistent as he once was… We’ll “sell” the Yankees at a recent high and take
another home dog in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins +100
Pittsburgh Pirates +155 over St. Louis Cardinals
Our contacts at a large offshore sportsbook circled this
game. “Smart money” is taking the Pirates and “Z. Duke.” St. Louis has been
playing well this year, but look over-valued a bit – with about 80% of the bets
(including teasers and parlays).
Even with an overwhelming percentage of bets on the
Cardinals, the line has moved from St. Louis -180 (Cris opener) to -155 at most
sportsbooks. That means that 20% of the bets has moved the line opposite of the
way 80% of the bets have been going. Big bucks – and smart money – are taking
the Pirates tonight.
We’ll take the visiting Pirates and the nice +155 odds
still available at SIA. Sell the Cards at a recent “high” and grab some
contrarian value in the sports marketplace.
Pittsburgh Pirates +155 (SIA)
Games to Watch (1-4, -2.5
units)
Baltimore Orioles +136
Minnesota Twins +100
Pittsburgh Pirates +155
It should be another exciting
weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy
and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday with
the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com