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Sports Marketwatch -
College Football Edition
NCAA Football Week 3
9/12/2008 11:01
by Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the inaugural edition of the
NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at
Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football
point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports
betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing
and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week in
College Football.
Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 3
Recapping Week 2
This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch,
and we are off to a great start. We went 3-0 in our first week, with Bowling
Green (+13), Utah (+3.5), and UCLA (+7.5) all winning their games out right. In
week 2, we went 2-1 behind Washington (+9.5) and Mississippi (+7.5) beating
their respective spreads and coming close to outright wins (even Duke mentioned
at the end of the column beat the spread without moving to +7.) Only New Mexico
(+2.5) against Texas A&M kept us from another 3-0 week. All-in-all, it's been a
good way to start the NCAA Football season.
If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit
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Free 7-Day membership. We are the leader in sports
betting information and statistics.
Overall = 5-1 = 83.3%
NCAA WEEK 3
Week 2 didn't look like it had a lot of interesting match ups when schedules
came out, but there were quite a few great games, including two of our Games To
Watch. There is no such shortage of interesting match ups heading into this
weekend. The biggest game of the week sees perennial powerhouses Ohio State and
Southern California face off in the Los Angeles Coliseum. Other intriguing match
ups are Kansas at South Florida, Georgia at South Carolina, Wisconsin at Fresno
State, and UCLA at Brigham Young. We're glad
to have the college teams back battling
on the way to the BCS Championship Game in Miami.
Warning to all new readers of the
NCAA
Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow
our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take
up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column
is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too
go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line
value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We
typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
We're expecting heavy action on the big match ups this week, especially the
Buckeyes-Trojans showdown. Visit
SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple
online sportsbooks. Here are a trio of line value games we are keying on.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 3 – Games to Watch
Kansas vs South Florida (9/12 8PM)
Kansas is coming off a dream 2007 season in which they went 12-1 and won the
Orange Bowl. They’re off to a good start in 2008 with blowout wins over a pair
of cupcakes. The Jayhawks have averaged 34.5 points per game in those two wins,
down from the 42.8 they averaged last season. Kansas lost some key players along
their offensive and defensive line, and this match up between two top 25 teams
will be the first real test for the new starters. Kansas has a lot to prove if
they want a return trip to the BCS.
South Florida was another surprise success in 2007. Head Coach Jim Leavitt built
the Bulls into a top-25 program in a matter of 11 years, and looks to have a
team capable of winning the Big East in 2008. South Florida returns 20 starters
from last season including dual-threat and Mohawk-wearing QB Matt Grothe. The
Bulls’ spread offense can give defenses fits and put up big numbers in the
process. South Florida has started the season 2-0, including a big overtime win
on the road last weekend against Central Florida.
Almost 705 of bettors are taking Kansas and the points, but the line at Pinnacle
hasn’t moved from opening of South Florida -3.5 points. Its unusual to see the
public backing an underdog like this, but the appeal of a top-25 team receiving
points is drawing them in. We’ll take South Florida at home giving up the
points.
South Florida –3.5
Rice vs Vanderbilt (9/13 12:30PM)
Rice puts up a ton of points, as they return the majority of players on that
side of the ball from last season. The Owls return players that produced 371 of
the 377 points the team scored last season. Leading the charge is wide receiver
Jarett Dillard, who recorded back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. He has a chance to
break the NCAA career TD record for wide receivers; he only needs seven more to
reach the mark. Rice also has the guy throwing Dillard the ball back in QB Chase
Clement, who set 18 school records last season.
Vanderbilt is coming off a huge upset win on national television over South
Carolina. Vandy is inexperienced as the only return 11 starters from a team that
went 5-7 in 2007. The Commodores had to rebuild their entire offensive line, but
the running game has looked effective so far this season. Don’t look for much of
an air attack from Vanderbilt. Starting QB Chris Nickson has thrown for only 181
yards in the Commodores two wins, and their leading receiver has only 4 catches.
Both teams are looking to surprise people and start the season 3-0. The public
exposure of a win over a then-top-25 team has the public backing Vandy, as they
are receiving almost 80% of the public wagers. The line has barely moved at most
books tracked by Sports Insights,if it’s moved at all. Not surprisingly, there
have been some Smart Money plays triggered for Rice. We’ll take the high-flying
offense of Rice with the points and Smart Money.
Rice +8.5 (Sports Interaction)
UCLA vs BYU
UCLA was triumphant over a top-25 Tennessee team in Head Coach Rick Neuheisel’s
debut. QB Kevin Craft looked horrendous in the first half of that game, but came
out and had a strong second half to lead the Bruins to an overtime victory.
Which Craft will show up in Provo? That is the key question to this match up. If
he looks shaky early, watch for the Cougars to pull away. The Bruins have also
lost 10 of their last 13 on the road
BYU escaped with a controversial win at Washington last week, but they know how
to put up points. Junior QB Max Hall was impressive in the close call against
the Huskies, throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns. Hall and tight end
Dennis Pitta have been a strong connection for the Cougars early in the season.
Pitta has caught 21 passes for 361 yards in BYU’s two wins. The Cougars have won
14-straight games in LaVell Edwards Stadium.
These are two teams previously featured in NCAA Football Marketwatch, albeit on
opposite sides of the pick. This is one of those cases of selling on good news
and buying on bad. UCLA is coming off the big upset win over Tennessee, and BYU
is coming off the almost upset by Washington. Those results have the public
placing almost 70% of bets on the Bruins, and the line has moved in favor of the
home team. We’ll take the top 25 team laying the points at home.
BYU -7.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to
Watch for NCAA Football Week 1.
Games to Watch (5-1)
South Florida –3.5
Rice +8.5 (Sports Interaction)
BYU -7.5
It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to
Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the
latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check
out our new feature
Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won't find anywhere else.
We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the
NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com
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