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Sports Marketwatch -
College Football Edition
NCAA Football Week 5
9/26/2008
by Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the inaugural edition of the
NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at
Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football
point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports
betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing
and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week in
College Football.
Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 5
Recapping Week 4
This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch,
and we are following an undesirable downward trend. After a hot start to the
season, last week's 0-3 record dropped us to an even 6-6 for 2008. Tennessee
looked like they never had a chance against Florida, and Mississippi couldn't
hang with Vanderbilt in the second half. Auburn was looking good against LSU,
but faltered down the stretch and lost by five. We're hoping for a reversal of
trends this week, after all the season is a roller coaster with ups and downs.
If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit
SportsInsights.com and sign up for a
Free 7-Day membership. We are the leader in sports
betting information and statistics.
Overall = 6-6 = 50.0%
NCAA WEEK 5
For the second consecutive week the top match up takes place in an SEC battle between top-10
teams, as Alabama travels to play Georgia between the hedges. Both teams have a
plethora of playmakers on offense and know how to stop their opponents on
defense. Two other top-25 match ups take place this weekend. The first sees
No. 2 Oklahoma host No.24 Texas Christian. The second features two teams hoping
to win the Big Ten with No.12 Penn State hosting No. 22 Illinois.
Warning to all new readers of the
NCAA
Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow
our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take
up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column
is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too
go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line
value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We
typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
We're expecting heavy action on two of the top-25 match ups, with the TCU-Oklahoma
point spread possibly scaring some bettors. Other games that should draw lots of
action include Wisconsin at Michigan, Maryland at Clemson, and North Carolina at
Miami (FL). Visit
SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple
online sportsbooks. Here are a trio of line value games we are keying on.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 5 – Games to Watch
Pittsburgh vs Syracuse (9/27 12P)
Pittsburgh opened the season as a top-25 team before a very disappointing home
loss at the hands of Bowling Green. Since then the Panthers have won consecutive
home games, but they didn't look great against either Buffalo or Iowa while
giving up 709 yards combinded. Pittsburgh's best player on offense is Sophomore
RB LeSean McCoy. He has 242 yards and five touchdowns on the ground with another
102 yards receiving. Panthers QB Bill Stull has only one touchdown pass on the
season to go with three interceptions. This will be Pittsburgh's Big East opener
as well as their first road game of the young season. In 2007, the Panthers
finished with only one win away from home.
Syracuse opened the season with three consecutive losses, and they weren't
able to stay close in any of them. Last week they notched their first win
against Northeastern. The Orange keep pace with other teams on offense with
three strong running backs. Senior Curtis Brinkley leads the team with 358 yards
and three touchdowns on the ground. Quarterback Cameron Dantley has been been
solid behind center, throwing for five touchdowns against two picks. Syracuse's
weakness is its defense, which has allowed a total of 148 points in four
contests.
Neither team has looked very good so far this season, and Pittsburgh may be
the better team. The Panthers are giving up more than two touchdowns on the
road, and they are receiving 68% of the public's bets. The line has moved from
Pitt -16.5 to -15, and that indicates some Smart Money behind Syracuse. Sure
enough, there was a Smart Money play triggered by Cris, which has a positive
record on NCAA Football Smart Money plays. We'll follow the Sharps and take the
Orange with the points.
Syracuse +15
North Carolina vs Miami (FL) (9/27 12P)
Last week North Carolina looked poised to take a huge step towards importance in
the ACC before a heartbreaking home loss to Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels had a
two-touchdown lead late in the third quarter before giving up 17 unanswered
points to the Hokies. Carolina lost starting QB T.J. Yates to a broken ankle
during last week's loss. Backup Mike Paulus struggled against the Hokies, but he
did come out of high school as a highly-regarded prospect. The Tar Heels boast
one of the best receiving corps in the NCAA, including do-it-all receiver/return
specialist Brandon Tate. So far in 2008 Tate has 297 receiving yards, 359 return
yards, and 141 rushing yards. North Carolina's defense has forced eight
turnovers through three games.
Miami came off an embarrassing late collapse two weeks ago against Florida
with a huge win 41-23 win over Texas A&M. They were led by RB Graig Cooper, who
finished the day with 128 yards on 16 carries, including two TDs. Freshman QB
Robert Marve looked more comfortable in his second start, completing 16 of 22
pass for 212 yards with a pair of touchdowns. The Hurricanes defense did allow
362 yards to the Aggies, but they forced a pair of turnovers including a fumble
returned for a score.
The media sees Miami as a team back on the rise in the ACC, much like they
were saying about UNC before last week. The teams come in with very similar
numbers through three games. Each sits at 2-1 and has scored 96 points, while
North Carolina has allowed 59 points to Miami's 56. The Tar Heels surprised the
Canes last season in a 33-27 win in Chapel Hill, and Butch Davis knows how to
win in Miami. The line at Pinnacle opened at Miami -7 before climbing to -8, but
has since dropped back to Miami -7.5 even though the Canes are receiving
two-thirds of public bets. This movement has triggered multiple Smart Money
plays on North Carolina, and we're going to buy low on Carolina and sell high on
Miami.
North Carolina +7.5 (Sports Interaction)
Alabama vs Georgia (9/27 7:45PM)
Alabama has steadily climbed into the top 10 after its impressive opening win
against Clemson. The Crimson Tide won its previous two games over Western
Kentucky and Arkansas in routs. Alabama has put up 144 points while allowing
only 37 to open the season 4-0. The Tide has three running backs averaging more
than 6 yards per carry, led by Glen Coffee, who has 404 yards on 47 carries (8.6
ypc). Senior QB John Parker Wilson has performed well, and freshman WR Julio
Jones has showed he can contribute immediately. Alabama's defense has forced 8
turnovers, with 4 coming in last week's blowout win over Arkansas.
Georgia came is as the pre-season No. 1 team, but have fallen behind USC and
Oklahoma in the standings. Other than a close road win over South Carolina, the
Dawgs have shown they can absolutely dominate. They traveled to a rowdy Sun
Devil Stadium last weekend, and easily handled Arizona State in a 27-10 win.
Junior QB Matthew Stafford has looked great while compiling a 152.64 rating, and
Heismen candidate Knowshon Moreno already has 9 rushing TDs while averaging 6.6
yards per carry. Freshman WR A.J. Green had a breakout performance against ASU
with 8 catches for 159 yards and a TD. The Georgia defense hasn't forced many
turnovers on the season, but they do keep opponents from putting up lots of
points, allowing only 55 so far.
This should be a great game as both teams are strong on both sides of the
ball. Alabama will be looking to prove it belongs this high in the standings,
and it will be a tough test between the hedges. The public is taking the Tide
and the points in this top-10 battle at a 65% rate, and the line has moved from
an opening at Pinnacle of Georgia -7.5 to -6.5. The movement has triggered Steam
Moves on Georgia from multiple books with positive results. We like going
against the public and Georgia giving up less than a TD on their home turf. Go
Dawgs!
.
Georgia -6.5 So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to
Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.
Games to Watch (6-3)
Syracuse +15
North Carolina +7.5 (Sports Interaction)
Georgia -6.5
It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to
Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the
latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check
out our new feature
Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won't find anywhere else.
We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the
NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com
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