Sports Marketwatch - College Football Edition
NCAA Football Week 6
10/3/2008  
by Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the inaugural edition of the NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 6

Recapping Week 5

This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, and we bounced back with a winning week after a pair of disappointing efforts. Saturday's noon games got us off to a 2-0 start with Syracuse holding on late to finish within 15 points of Pittsburgh and North Carolina winning outright over Miami. Things were looking good before Georgia was absolutely dominated by Alabama in Athens. We definitely didn't see that one coming. The winning record puts us back above .500, and we're looking to extend that a bit further this week.

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Overall = 8-7 = 53.3%

NCAA WEEK 6

We have a trio of top-25 match ups this week. No. 9 USC gets a home bout against No.23 Oregon to recover from last week's upset loss at Oregon State. No. 18 Wisconsin also comes off an upset loss on the road, and the Badgers will play host to No. 14 Ohio State as they look to bounce back. Another week and another top-25 face-off in the SEC, but this one wasn't expected coming into the season. No. 19 Vanderbilt is a surprise at 4-0, and they look to prove they're for real with a home game against No. 13 Auburn.

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

We're expecting heavy action on the top-25 match ups. Other games that should draw lots of action include No. 24 UConn at North Carolina, No. 4 Missouri at Nebraska, and Kentucky at No. 2 Alabama. Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 6 – Games to Watch

Texas Tech vs Kansas State (10/4 3:30P)

Coming into the season, everyone knew about Texas Tech's high-powered offense led by Senior QB Graham Harrell and Sophomore WR Michael Crabtree. The Red Raiders haven't disappointed by putting up over 45 points and 570 yards a game while climbing to No. 7 in the rankings with a 4-0 record. Texas Tech improved their running game behind a pair of talented backs, Baron Batch and Shannon Woods, that each average over 6 yards per carry and are receiving threats out of the backfield. The Red Raiders are backing up all that offense with an improved defense that is giving up an average of 16 points per game.

Kansas State also knows how to put up a lot of points, as they average 47 points a contest. The Wildcats are led by Junoir QB Josh Freeman, who broke KSU's career record for passing yards last week and needs only two passing TDs to tie the school mark. KSU finally found a running game during their last contest as converted WR Lamark Brown rushed for 137 yards and a TD to give the offense a balance.

We're expecting there to be plenty of points with these two offenses facing off. Texas Tech opened as -6 favorites at Pinnacle before the line quickly moved to -7 with the Red Raiders receiving the majority of the public's wagers. The line fluctuated and triggered multiple Smart Money Plays on KSU before dropping down to Texas Tech -7.5. We like to follow the Smart Money and home teams getting more than a TD. We're backing the Wildcats in Manhattan.

Kansas State +7.5 (SIA) 

Ohio State vs Wisconsin (10/4 8P)

Ohio State heads into Wisconsin coming off a pair of home wins to wash the bitter taste of the USC game out of their mouth. The Buckeyes haven't looked dominating since their opening win against Youngstown State, as they've been dealing with a nagging injury to starting tailback Beanie Wells and inconsistent play at quarterback. Wells finally returned and looked healthy last week against Minnesota as he rushed for 106 yards on 14 carries. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor finally brought some playmaking ability to the QB spot while splitting time with Todd Boeckman. Pryor was steady throwing the ball while rushing for 97 yards and two scores on eight carries. The Buckeyes' defense also looked better last week as they allowed only two field goals before Minnesota scored two late TDs when the game was out of reach.

Wisconsin will look to bounce back from last week's devastating second half against Michigan. The Badgers led 19-0 at halftime but allowed the Wolverines to score 27 points in the final 18 minutes to pull the upset. A big part of that loss was the four turnovers committed by Senior QB Allan Evridge. The Badgers defense allows only 17 points per game and has forced 11 turnovers. Wisconsin historically plays well at home, and they have won 27 of their previous 28 games at Camp Randall Stadium.

This will be the Buckeyes first test since USC, and playing at Wisconsin is a tall task with a freshman QB. Wisconsin may have blown it last week, but they have already defeated a top-25 team this season, and they know their season could be on the line with No. 6 Penn State visiting next week. Ohio State opened as -2.5 favorites at Pinnacle, but the line has dropped to Ohio State -1 despite the Buckeyes receiving 72% of public wagers. This has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on Wisconsin, so we'll take the Badgers at home with a point or so.

Wisconsin +1.5 (SIA)


Missouri vs Nebraska (10/4 9PM)

Missouri has looked excellent so far this season behind Heisman hopeful QB Chase Daniel. The Tigers offense is ranked second nationally in scoring and total yards as they've racked up four non-conference wins to open the season. The only close contest was in their opening game against then-No. 20 Illinois, which they won 52-42. Daniel has completed over 75% of his passes while throwing for 12 touchdowns against one interception. The offense is balanced with RB Derrick Washington, who averages 6.8 yards a carry and has scored 8 TDs on the ground.

Nebraska is coming off a tough 35-30 home loss to Virginia Tech, and has to face one of the nation's most powerful offenses. First-year Cornhuskers coach Bo Pelini has his team off to a good start, but knows the Huskers have a tough task this week. Nebraska has put up 37.5 points per game, and they will look to take advantage of a porous Missouri pass defense with Senior QB Joe Ganz.

This will be Missouri's first road contest as they open their Big 12 schedule. They opened as -10 favorites at Pinnacle and the line has moved up and down between 10 and 11 across the marketplace throughout the week. With the Tigers receiving 77% of the public's backing, Nebraska is receiving a plethora of Smart Money plays, mostly from books with positive records, due to the betting percentage and line fluctuation. We'll follow the Smart Money and take the Huskers with the points.

Nebraska +10.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.

Games to Watch (8-7)
Kansas State +7.5 (SIA)   
Wisconsin +1.5 (SIA)
Nebraska +10.5

It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won't find anywhere else. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com