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Sports Marketwatch - College Football Edition
NCAA Football Week 11
11/13/2009
by The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the
2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.
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Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 11
Recapping Week 10
Marketwatch is coming off our best week of the season, hitting all three games
for the first time this year. In game one, home-underdog Colorado came back from
an 11-point halftime deficit to edge Texas A&M 35-34. Ohio State kept it rolling
for Marketwatch, out-rushing Penn State 228-76 en route to a convincing 24-7 win
over the favored Nittany Lions. Our final game of the week,
and closest of the season, certainly wasn't short on offense, as Tulsa and
Houston combined for 1229 total yards. Stud quarterback Case Keenum was up to
his usual shenanigans, throwing for 522 yards and three touchdowns in the come-from-behind, one-point victory over Tulsa. Luckily for Marketwatch, we grabbed Tulsa at +2, beating the spread by one point for our
first 3-0 week of the season.
Overall Record = 17-13 (56.7%)
Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll
occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 11 – Games to Watch
Michigan State vs. Purdue (12 p.m. EST)
Coming off two straight losses, Michigan State got back on track last week,
beating up on Western Michigan 49-14. Quarterback Kirk Cousins carved up the
Broncos' secondary, racking up 353 yards through the air on only 25 attempts.
After starting the season 1-5, Purdue has won three of their last four games,
including a 12-point victory over Ohio State and last week's 38-36 thriller
against Michigan in Ann Arbor.
This game opened as a pick at CRIS and the public is backing Michigan
State, who are currently receiving 63% of spread bets. This public
"Spartan-love" has pushed Michigan State up to a 3-point favorite at
most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights. This line movement
has added value to Purdue and sharp money has not hesitated to jump behind the
Boilermakers. SportsInsights has triggered three positive Smart Money Plays on
Purdue, including one each at Cata/VegasVic (+13.74 units) and CRIS (+12.32
units), two of our top three sportsbooks for NCAA Smart Money plays this season.
In this match-up, we'll go against the public and take the home underdog being
back by Smart Money.
Purdue +3
Missouri vs. Kansas State (12:30 p.m. EST)
Missouri beat up on non-conference opponents early in the season, jumping out to
a 4-0 record. However, the Tigers have struggled
lately, losing four of their first five conference games heading into this
week's showdown with the Big 12 North leader, Kansas State. The Wildcats, who
have been a bit of a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team this season, played well
last week, shutting down in-state rival Kansas and quarterback Todd Reesing in
K-State's 17-10 win. Kansas State opened as a 2.5-point home-favorite at
Pinnacle and and are a huge public favorite, garnering 71% of spread bets, 78%
of moneyline bets and 65% of parlay bets. With these betting percentages, Kansas State should have grown to a
bigger favorite, yet the line has dropped 3.5 points at Pinnacle, making
Missouri a 1-point favorite. This considerable reverse-line movement has triggering
nine, yes nine, positive Smart Money Plays,
including one each at Cata/VegasVic (+13.74 units) and Matchbook (+13.47
units), and two positive Steam Moves on
Missouri. Most sportsbooks currently have Missouri as a 1-point favorite,
but there are still a few out there who have this game as a pick. As we learned
last week in the Tulsa game, one extra point can be huge, so do some
line-shopping and grab the best number possible.
Missouri - pk Arizona vs. California (3:30 p.m.
EST)
In a sport where very few things are certain, there are two things that we know
for sure each and every week. First, someone will make a joke about Charlie
Weis, and second, Washington State will get hammered. Last week's destruction of
Washington State happened to come at the hands of Arizona, who effortlessly ran
through a porous defensive line in a laughable 48-7 beat-down
of the Cougars. As good as Saturday was for Arizona, it was equally as bad for
California, who not only fell to Oregon State by 17 points, but also lost Jahvid
Best indefinitely after the star running back suffered a scary concussion and
had to be carted off the field.
Arizona opened as a 2.5-point favorite at Olympic and are currently receiving
69% of spread bets, 82% of moneyline bets and 80% of parlay bets. Even though the Wildcats are a solid public favorite, the
line has dropped a ridiculous 5.5 points at Olympic. This is the most drastic
reverse-line movement Marketwatch has seen all season, and to no surprise, this
game lit up SportsInsights' Betting Systems like a Christmas tree. Six positive Smart Money
Plays, including one from Matchbook (+13.47 units), and a Steam Move from ThePig (+12.9 units) have been triggered on
California. We like the reverse-line movement and plethora of positive moves on
this game, so we'll give the three and take California at home.
California -3
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights' analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week
11.
Games to Watch (17-13)
Purdue +3
Missouri - pk
California -3
It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports
Marketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com
for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com
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