2 Teams With Value to Win the College Football Playoff
A couple weeks ago we looked at the most recent college football title odds and compared them to FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Predictions to find teams with potential value. At the time, Ohio State was listed at +6600 and had the best championship value of any team.
Two wins and an Georgia loss later, the Buckeyes are now +1600, and have doubled their chance to win the College Football Playoff according to FiveThirtyEight’s probabilities. Amazingly, even that ridiculous increase in odds didn’t completely kill the value on OSU. They’re one of just two teams with value to win the title this week, the other being their future Big Ten Championship opponent.
| Team | Title Odds (BetOnline 11/20) | Implied Probability | FiveThirtyEight Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | +140 | 41.67% | 27% |
| Clemson | +400 | 20% | 19% |
| Oklahoma | +600 | 14.29% | 12% |
| Auburn | +700 | 12.50 | 6% |
| Miami | +800 | 11.11% | 7% |
| Georgia | +1000 | 9.09% | 8% |
| Wisconsin | +1200 | 7.69% | 10% |
| Ohio State | +1600 | 5.88% | 8% |
| TCU | +10000 | 0.99% | 1% |
| Notre Dame | +10000 | 0.99% | <1% |
| Penn State | +10000 | 0.99% | <1% |
| USC | +12500 | 0.79% | <1% |
| UCF | +25000 | 0.40% | <1% |
Based on FiveThirtyEight’s probabilities, Ohio State is 1.36 times more likely to win the Playoff than their BetOnline odds suggest, making them just a hair more valuable than Wisconsin (1.30 times more likely).
Of course, for either of these teams to make the playoff they’ll need to win out, which would knock the other out of contention. Wisconsin, unlike Ohio State, controls their own destiny because of their undefeated record, but OSU’s value comes from their higher payout, and as most would probably agree, slightly more talented team.
If you’re wondering what it would take for Ohio State to win out and not make it, that’ll likely come down to the SEC. If Alabama were to lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship giving each team one loss, we may get our first ever playoff with two teams from the same conference.
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