Which NFL Head Coaches Are on the Hot Seat?
Sports fans can be a fickle and reactionary bunch — and quite prone to hyperbole. One day a player is your cities savior, the next day they’re a clubhouse cancer that needs to be removed. I think it would be fair to say that the average football fan changes their opinion almost as often as my girlfriend…almost. For that reason sports talk radio is usually inundated with calls about how their head coach should be fired, and that conversation can quickly turn into a mainstream media narrative.
The NFL head coaching circuit is a carousel where coaches are often hired, fired and re-hired quicker than you can say Wade Phillips. Just within the last year we have seen coaching changes in Tennessee, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Washington, Minnesota, Cleveland and Houston. That’s nearly a quarter of all NFL teams!
In 2013 Texans head coach Gary Kubiak was the first on the chopping block as he was let go after losing a franchise-record 11th straight game in Week 14 against the woeful Jaguars. This year, there are a number of coaches who will be under the microscope led by Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett.
In early August, Sportsbook.com posted the odds for which coach will be the first to be fired and listed Garrett (+400) is at the front of the line. Just over a week later, Bovada posted this same prop and listed Garrett as the favorite at +200 with 5Dimes posting their odds shortly thereafter.
Since taking over in the middle of the 2010 season, Garrett has posted a 29-27 record (including an 8-8 mark last season) and perhaps more importantly the Cowboys have not made a playoff appearance during his tenure.
The table below compares the current odds to be the first head coach fired at 5Dimes, Bovada and Sportsbook.com (SB) with the implied probability for each. We will continue to update this table as the odds are adjusted and more sportsbooks begin posting odds.
| Coach (Team) | 5Dimes (8/30) | Bovada (8/12) | Sportsbook.com (8/1) | 2013-14 Record | Implied Odds via SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Garrett (Cowboys) | +200 | +200 | +400 | 8-8 | 20% |
| Dennis Allen (Raiders) | +450 | +400 | +600 | 4-12 | 14.29% |
| Joe Philbin (Dolphins) | +750 | +700 | +1000 | 8-8 | 9.09% |
| Doug Marrone (Bills) | +800 | +800 | +550 | 6-10 | 15.38% |
| Mike Smith (Falcons) | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 | 4-12 | 9.09% |
| Gus Bradley (Jaguars) | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 | 4-12 | 9.09% |
| Rex Ryan (Jets) | +1800 | +1000 | +2500 | 8-8 | 3.85% |
| Marvin Lewis (Bengals) | +1800 | +2000 | +1800 | 11-5 | 5.26% |
| Tom Coughlin (Giants) | +2000 | +2500 | +1200 | 7-9 | 7.69% |
| Mike Pettine (Browns) | +2000 | N/A | +2000 | N/A | 4.76% |
| Ron Rivera (Panthers) | +2000 | +2000 | +1500 | 12-4 | 6.25% |
| Jeff Fisher (Rams) | +2500 | +2500 | +2000 | 7-9 | 4.76% |
| Mike Tomlin (Steelers) | +4000 | +3300 | +2500 | 8-8 | 3.85% |
| Marc Trestman (Bears) | +5000 | +3300 | +5000 | 8-8 | 1.96% |
| Mike Zimmer (Vikings) | +5000 | N/A | +5000 | N/A | 1.96% |
| Jim Caldwell (Lions) | +6000 | N/A | +5000 | N/A | 1.96% |
| Jay Gruden (Redskins) | +6000 | N/A | +6000 | N/A | 1.64% |
| Ken Whisenhunt (Titans) | +7500 | N/A | +6000 | N/A | 1.64% |
| Bill O'Brien (Texans) | +7500 | N/A | +6000 | N/A | 1.64% |
| Lovie Smith (Buccaneers) | +7500 | N/A | +6000 | N/A | 1.64% |
Note: The sum of these implied probabilities is 125.8 which means there is a roughly 25 cent vig on this prop bet.
Who do you think will be the first head coach to say sayonara? Is it possible that any first year head coach gets canned? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.
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