NFL Week 3 Line Comparisons
During the past off-season CG Technology (previously known as Cantor Gaming) posted lines for almost every NFL game for the 2014 regular season with the exception of Week 17 (where many starters rest and lines can be difficult to predict). Using these spreads, we were able to uncover which teams were offering the most value for win total bets.
Westgate Hotel (formerly LVH) then released lines for every Week 3 game early on Wednesday (9/10) morning when all Week 1 games were in the books. We thought it would be interesting to compare these early Week 3 lines to the pre-season spreads from CG Technology and how accurate they were to the actual Week 3 opening odds.
| Matchup | WestGate Actual Opening Line on 9/15 | WestGate Look-Ahead Line on 9/10 | CG Technology Pre-Season Line on 5/22 |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB at ATL | ATL -5.5 | ATL -5.5 | ATL -5.5 |
| BAL at CLE | Pick 'Em | Pick 'Em | Pick 'Em |
| GB at DET | Pick 'Em | GB -1 | GB -1 |
| TEN at CIN | CIN -7 | CIN -6.5 | CIN -7 |
| SD at BUF | SD -1 | SD -2.5 | BUF -1 |
| DEN at SEA | SEA -4.5 | SEA -4.5 | SEA -3.5 |
| PIT at CAR | CAR -3 | CAR -3 | CAR -3.5 |
| IND at JAX | IND -6.5 | IND -6.5 | IND -6 |
| OAK at NE | NE -14 | NE -12 | NE -13 |
| MIN at NO | NO -9.5 | NO -8.5 | NO -10 |
| HOU at NYG | HOU -2.5 | NYG -3 | NYG -4 |
| WAS at PHI | PHI -6.5 | PHI -7 | PHI -4.5 |
| DAL at STL | Pick 'Em | DAL -1 | Pick 'Em |
| SF at ARZ | SF -3 | SF -1.5 | SF -2.5 |
| KC at MIA | MIA -5.5 | MIA -6.5 | Pick 'Em |
| CHI at NYJ | Pick 'Em | NYJ -1.5 | Pick 'Em |
On the whole, the lines from 4 months ago turned out to be pretty accurate but there were some games with large discrepancies. The Chiefs/Dolphins game which was originally listed as a pick ’em but after Miami’s impressive win against New England, the Fins saw their stock rise considerably and were -6.5 on the look-ahead line and are now -4.5. The Texans have once again started the year 2-0 after going 2-14 last season and are now favored over the struggling Giants.
It’s also interesting to see the Seahawks listed as a 4.5-point home favorite for their Super Bowl rematch with the Broncos. You may recall that Denver received 68% of spread bets as a 1.5-point favorite but were blown out by a final score of 43-8.
Bettors can view real-time odds, public betting trends, breaking injury news and more at our new free NFL odds page.
Which Week 3 lines do you think are offering value? Are you surprised the Rams only moved 1-point given Sam Bradford’s season ending injury? Who will win the Super Bowl rematch? Feel free to leave any thoughts, comments or questions in the section below.
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Effem
09/10/2014 at 1:51 pmSo Miami is favored by 1 this week vs Buffalo but 6.5 next week vs KC? Feels wrong to me.
David Solar
09/10/2014 at 2:21 pmThe biggest difference is that Miami is on the road this week against Buffalo, but they’re playing at home Week 3 against Kansas City. Clearly oddsmakers have also soured on the Chiefs since they’re +13.5 this week against Denver and were only +7 when CG released their lines over the offseason.
Kerry Nettles
09/14/2014 at 1:19 pmBaltimore over Cleveland. Like really a pick em. IDC if they were playing on the moon. Spread should be at least 7