NFL Week 13 Betting Recap

NFL Week 13 Betting Recap

-In Week 13 underdogs went 9-7 pushing their season record to 96-91 ATS. Home teams went 11-5 ATS in Week 13 and are now 97-87 ATS on the season. Contrarian betting was once again profitable with teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets going 9-7 ATS.

– On October 10th, Bovada posted a prop bet asking whether Johnny Manziel would start a game during the 2014 NFL season. The odds were essentially a coin flip with “Yes” listed at -130 and “No” listed at -110. Last week Johnny Manziel replaced a struggling Brian Hoyer, but the Browns Week 14 starting QB is currently undecided.

Most bet NFL games: 1. Packers-Patriots 2. Redskins-Colts 3. Broncos-Chiefs

— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) November 30, 2014

– This season the Indianapolis Colts (9-3), Kansas City Chiefs (8-4), Arizona Cardinals (8-4) and Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) have been the best teams against the spread. However, the Cardinals are 5-1 ATS with Carson Palmer starting and just 3-3 ATS with Drew Stanton behind center.

In the 6 games with Carson Palmer at QB, the #Cardinals have outscored their opponents 155-101. In 6 games with Drew Stanton; 103-123. — SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) December 1, 2014

– After losing to the Green Bay Packers, the New England Patriots have fallen behind the Denver Broncos for the best Super Bowl Futures of any AFC team.

Updated NFL Futures via 5Dimes #Packers +410 #Broncos +450 #Patriots +490 #Seahawks +700 #Eagles +1200 #Colts +2200 #Cardinals +2400

— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) December 2, 2014

– Teasers and pleasers have become increasingly popular among NFL bettors, but buyer beware. Teasing 6.5-point favorites down to (essentially) a pick ’em has not been a profitable strategy.

Teasing 6.5-point NFL Favorites down to -0.5 is 87-53, 62.1%. The breakeven point for 2-team 6-point teasers is 72.4% — Bet Labs Software (@Bet_Labs) December 1, 2014

– Although this weekend’s Packers/Patriots game went under its closing total of 57 (final score 26-21), Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady remain two of the most profitable “Over” quarterbacks.

In the last 5 seasons, NFL games with Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers have gone over the total 63.1% of the time including 17-5 this season.

— Bet Labs Software (@Bet_Labs) November 30, 2014

– Most lopsided bet Week 12 games:

1. Giants -3 at Jaguars (82% of spread bets)
2. Colts -7.5 vs. Redskins (76% of spread bets)
3. Bengals -5.5 at Buccaneers (76% of spread bets)
4. Broncos +1 vs. Chiefs (73% of spread bets)
5. Rams -6.5 vs. Raiders (73% of spread bets)

– Most popular Week 12 teasers/pleasers

1. Giants 89%
2. Colts 85%
3. Bengals 84%
4. Rams 82%
5. Texans 79%

– NFL Week 14 current lines at BetOnline versus preseason lines:

1. Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (+3.5 | -4.5)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9.5 | -6)
3. Houston Texans (-5 | -4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Indianapolis Colts (-3.5 | -1) at Cleveland Browns
5. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5 | -3)
6. Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3 | pick ‘em)
7. St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (+2.5 | -2.5)
8. New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5 | -2)
9. Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5 | -3.5)
10. New York Giants (pick ’em | -1) at Tennessee Titans
11. Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5 | -2)
12. Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-10 | -11.5)
13. San Francisco 49ers (-8 | -7) at Oakland Raiders
14. Seattle Seahawks (+1.5 | -1) at Philadelphia Eagles
15. New England Patriots (-3.5 | -1) at San Diego Chargers
16. Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-11.5 | -6.5)

– Largest discrepancies between current Pinnacle lines and preseason lines from CG Technologies:

1. Cowboys: 8 points
2. Saints: 6 points
3. Rams: 5 points
4. Packers: 5 points
5. Buccaneers: 3.5 points

– Since 2003, teams coming off a loss have gone 325-275 ATS (+31.94 units) including a 25-18 ATS record this season. Last week there were 4 teams who lost by at least 20 points (Dallas, Tennessee, Washington and Oakland) and may be undervalued by bettors this week.

– Wondering whether the Seahawks 12th man is legit? According to our Bet Labs software Seattle has gone 61-38 ATS at home but just 42-55 ATS on the road.

– Most likely Super Bowl matchups (via 5Dimes)

1. Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers +628
2. New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers +683
3. Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks +1145
4. New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks +1240
5. Denver Broncos vs Philadelphia Eagles +1865
6. New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles +2010
7. Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers +2950
8. Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals +3150
9. New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals +3400
10. Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints +3600
11. Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers +3800
12. New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints +3875

– Updated MVP Odds from Sportsbook.com (Last Week’s Odds)

1. Aaron Rodgers -500 (-110)
2. Peyton Manning +450 (+300)
3. JJ Watt +1000 (+2000)
4. Tom Brady +1200 (+1200)
5. Andrew Luck +1500 (+1200)
6. DeMarco Murray +2500 (+1000)
7. Rob Gronkowski +5000 (unchanged)

– You can view the latest odds and public betting trends on our free NFL odds page, but here are some key Week 13 injuries to monitor:

– For the latest news and injury updates, make sure to visit our free NFL injury page.

– NFL Divisional Odds via 5Dimes

1. AFC East: Patriots -5000 | Field +2500
2. AFC North: Bengals -165 | Steelers +480 | Ravens +500 | Browns +800
3. AFC South: Colts -7000 | Field +3000
4. AFC West: Broncos -1000 | Chargers +975 | Chiefs +2000
5. NFC East: Eagles -280 | Field +240
6. NFC North: Packers -650 | +475
7. NFC South: Saints -230 | Falcons +225 | Panthers +2000 | Buccaneers +50000
8. NFC West: Seahawks -120 | Cardinals +150 | 49ers +775

–  Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

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