Historical Super Bowl Trends
Super Bowl XLIX kicks off on Sunday, February 1st at 6:30 PM when the New England Patriots face off against the defending champion Seattle Seahawks. New England opened as a 3-point underdog but, at the time of publication, was receiving 77% of spread bets. This one-sided public betting has pushed the game to a pick ’em and represents many firsts for Super Bowl betting.
Over the past decade, only one team has received more than 55% of spread bets — the Denver Broncos who received 68% of spread bets in last year’s matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. As usual, the public’s perception was entirely wrong and the ‘Hawks won in dominant fashion, dispatching Peyton Manning and company by a final score of 43-8.
The table below, using lines from Pinnacle and public betting percentages from our seven contributing sportsbooks, displays historical Super Bowl trends for the past 11 years. Readers can see all of the data by utilizing the scroll bar at the bottom of the table.
| Super Bowl | Favorite | Underdog | Opening Line | Closing Line | Fav Betting % | Opening Total | Closing Total | Over % | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLIX | Seattle Seahawks | New England Patriots | SEA -2.5 | Pick 'Em | 24% | 49 | 48 | 62% | N/A |
| XLVIII | Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks | SEA -1 | DEN -1.5 | 68% | 47.5 | 47 | 46% | SEA 43, DEN 8 |
| XLVII | San Francisco 49ers | Baltimore Ravens | SF -5 | SF -4.5 | 44% | 48.5 | 47.5 | 56% | BAL 34, SF 31 |
| XLVI | New England Patriots | New York Giants | NE -3.5 | NE -3 | 47% | 54 | 53 | 49% | NY 21, NE 17 |
| XLV | Green Bay Packers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Pick 'Em | GB -3 | 49% | 44 | 44.5 | 66% | GB 31, PIT 25 |
| XLIV | Indianapolis Colts | New Orleans Saints | IND -3.5 | IND -4.5 | 53% | 56 | 56.5 | 65% | NO 31, IND 17 |
| XLIII | Pittsburgh Steelers | Arizona Cardinals | PIT -6.5 | PIT -6.5 | 44% | 47 | 46.5 | 59% | PIT 27, ARI 23 |
| XLII | New England Patriots | New York Giants | NE -14 | NE -12.5 | 40% | 55 | 54.5 | 58% | NY 17, NE 14 |
| XLI | Indianapolis Colts | Chicago Bears | IND -6 | IND -6.5 | 49% | 48.5 | 47 | 59% | IND 29, CHI 17 |
| XL | Pittsburgh Steelers | Seattle Seahawks | PIT -3 | PIT -4 | 49% | 46.5 | 46.5 | 53% | PIT 21, SEA 10 |
| XXXIX | New England Patriots | Philadelphia Eagles | NE -6 | NE -7 | 55% | 44 | 47 | 50% | NE 24, PHI 21 |
| XXXVIII | New England Patriots | Carolina Panthers | NE -6.5 | NE -7 | 44% | 38 | 37.5 | 48% | NE 32, CAR 29 |
Not including this year’s game, on average the favorite has received 49.27% of spread bets which highlights how evenly Super Bowl betting tends to be. Typically bettors tend to prefer pounding favorites and overs, but often times small spreads lead to more evenly bet games.
The Super Bowl point spread has been 3 or less in 4 of the last 5 seasons. In the 26 Super Bowls before that it was 3 or less only twice
— Sports Odds History (@SOHistory) January 20, 2015
Bettors also prefer high-scoring games, and that trend does seem to continue during the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. Ever since Super Bowl XXXVIII, on average 55.36% of bettors take the over.
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David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com.
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