2015 NFL Betting: Who Will Lead the League in Touchdowns?
Earlier this offseason we posted a series of articles which examined the odds for various players to lead the league in passing, rushing, receiving and sacks. The juice on these props is typically astronomical which can make it very difficult to find players offering value; however, it does provide insight into the expectations of oddsmakers. This information can also be very useful for fantasy football managers who looking for players who are being under ranked by the draft experts.
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Back in late July, the prominent offshore sportsbook 5Dimes posted odds for 42 different players to lead the league in total touchdowns. For those who are unfamiliar, this category excludes quarterbacks and focuses primarily on running backs and receivers.
The table below displays the current odds at 5Dimes and will be updated throughout the offseason.
| Player | 5Dimes (8/6) |
|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | +650 |
| Jamaal Charles | +650 |
| Marshawn Lynch | +650 |
| Rob Gronkowski | +900 |
| Adrian Peterson | +900 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | +900 |
| Eddie Lacy | +1000 |
| Demaryius Thomas | +1400 |
| Arian Foster | +1400 |
| DeMarco Murray | +1800 |
| Antonio Brown | +2000 |
| LeVeon Bell | +2500 |
| Jordy Nelson | +2500 |
| C.J. Anderson | +2500 |
| Mark Ingram | +2500 |
| Calvin Johnson | +2500 |
| Jimmy Graham | +2500 |
| Mike Evans | +3300 |
| Julio Jones | +3300 |
| A.J. Green | +3300 |
| LeSean McCoy | +3300 |
| Matt Forte | +3300 |
| Jeremy Hill | +3300 |
| Randall Cobb | +3300 |
| Frank Gore | +4000 |
| Jordan Matthews | +5000 |
| Alshon Jeffery | +5000 |
| Alfred Morris | +6600 |
| T.Y. Hilton | +6600 |
| Joseph Randle | +6600 |
| Melvin Gordon | +6600 |
| Lamar Miller | +8000 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | +8000 |
| LeGarrette Blount | +8000 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | +8000 |
| Justin Forsett | +8000 |
| Carlos Hyde | +8000 |
| Martavius Bryant | +8000 |
| Brandon Marshall | +8000 |
| Isaiah Crowell | +8000 |
| Dwayne Allen | +10000 |
| Amari Cooper | +10000 |
At the time of publication three players are listed as co-favorites with Dez Bryant, Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch all listed at +650. Last season Lynch led the league with 17 total touchdowns (13 rush, 4 rec) but Bryant was right on his heels with 16 TD’s.
One of the most interesting names listed is Antonio Brown whose 14 touchdowns ranked third in football last year. The 27-year old receiver has tallied 239 receptions for 3,197 yards and 21 touchdowns over the past two seasons, but has just the 11th best odds (+2000) to lead the league in scoring. Clearly oddsmakers believe that Brown’s lack of size detracts from his value in the red zone, but an elite first allows Brown to quickly separate from his defender and create passing lanes for his quarterback.
These odds seem to greatly favor running backs over wide receivers, but that philosophy seems outdated. The NFL has become more and more of a passing league and quarterbacks are consistently posting statistics that rank among the best all-time. Last season 24 players recorded at least ten total touchdowns, and 15 of them were either wide receivers or tight ends. Running backs may have led the league in touchdowns in each of the past seven seasons, but the tide is changing.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
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