2015 NFL Season: Week 1 Player Props and DFS Value
The NFL season may have kicked off last night in New England, but most bettors and Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) participants are looking forward to Sunday’s slate of games. Although we’ve already released our NFL Best Bets and discussed Week 1 line moves on our blog, we wanted to look at potential value from a player perspective.
On Thursday, Sportsbook.com posted over/under player props for this weekend’s games. We should note that this is not the most trustworthy offshore sportsbook as there have been a number of reports about delayed payouts, but the numbers still give us an indication of oddsmaker expectations for the Week 1 games.
The tables below display the over/under for passing yards, rushing yards and receiving yards along with their rank among listed players. Then, similar to our strategy with season long fantasy leagues, we compared these figures with dollar values at Draft Kings. This allowed us to determine which players were potentially being undervalued.
It’s important to point out that this is obviously a flawed metric as it does not account for the probability each player has of getting into the end zone. That said, even fantasy sports experts like ESPN’s Matthew Berry will admit that touchdown production can often times be fluke-ish. Tall players will definitely receive more targets in the red zone, but total yardage is an excellent indicator of fantasy value.
Quarterbacks
| Player | Rushing Yards | Oddsmaker Rank | DraftKings | DK Rank | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 299.5 | 1 | $8000 | 4 | 3 |
| Peyton Manning | 292.5 | 2 | $8200 | 3 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 290.5 | 3 | $8300 | 2 | -1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 280.5 | 4 | $8600 | 1 | -3 |
| Philip Rivers | 278.5 | 5 | $7100 | 10 | 5 |
| Matthew Stafford | 278.5 | 5 | $7000 | 11 | 6 |
| Tony Romo | 270.5 | 7 | $7300 | 9 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 267.5 | 8 | $7400 | 7 | -1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 266.5 | 9 | $7400 | 7 | -2 |
| Carson Palmer | 262.5 | 10 | $6500 | 14 | 4 |
| Joe Flacco | 256.5 | 11 | $6700 | 13 | 2 |
| Jay Cutler | 255.5 | 12 | $6800 | 12 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 234.5 | 13 | $7800 | 5 | -8 |
| Andy Dalton | 232.5 | 14 | $6100 | 16 | 2 |
| Derek Carr | 224.5 | 15 | $6100 | 16 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 222.5 | 16 | $7600 | 6 | -10 |
| Alex Smith | 218.5 | 17 | $6200 | 15 | -2 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 217.5 | 18 | $5500 | 18 | 0 |
Based on our research, Drew Brees should be the top-ranked fantasy quarterback. His over/under of 299.5 passing yards is 7 yards higher than Peyton Manning and, although Arizona has one of the league’s top defenses, the current game total of 48.5 at Pinnacle is actually higher than the Ravens/Broncos total (48). Brees is the 4th most expensive quarterback at Draft Kings ($8000) but could offer DFS players value.
Another potential sleeper is Detroit’s Matthew Stafford. His over/under of 278.5 ranks fifth among quarterbacks, yet Draft Kings lists him as the 11th most expensive quarterback at $7100. That six-spot gap makes Stafford the best Week 1 value.
As we noted in our fantasy sleepers and busts column, the ranks for Russell Wilson and Cam Newton are both negatively skewed due to additional value that they provide in the run game. There’s no over/under for Wilson, but oddsmakers are expecting 37.5 rushing yards from Newton.
Other Values: Carson Palmer, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco
Players to Avoid: Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith
Running Backs
| Player | Rushing Yards | Oddsmaker Rank | DraftKings | DK Rank | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 85.5 | 1 | $7300 | 3 | 2 |
| Eddie Lacy | 80.5 | 2 | $7500 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 78.5 | 3 | $7100 | 4 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 77.5 | 4 | $7900 | 1 | -3 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 70.5 | 5 | $5800 | 6 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 61.5 | 6 | $5600 | 7 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 60.5 | 7 | $5500 | 8 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 57.5 | 8 | $6200 | 5 | -3 |
| Rashad Jennings | 52.5 | 9 | $5100 | 9 | 0 |
| Player | Rush + Rec Yards | Oddsmaker Rank | DraftKings | DK Rank | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 104.5 | 1 | $7800 | 1 | 0 |
| CJ Anderson | 93.5 | 2 | $7000 | 2 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 88.5 | 3 | $6400 | 3 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 83.5 | 4 | $5500 | 4 | 0 |
The prop betting for running backs has been broken into two different categories, rushing yards and rushing plus receiving yards. Since we have consensus rankings for rushing plus receiving yards, we’re going to focus purely on rushing yards.
Oddsmakers have set the over/under for Marshawn Lynch rushing yards at 85.5 — the highest total among listed Week 1 players. Despite this fact, Lynch is just the third most expensive back at Draft Kings, trailing Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy. Considering their obvious blunder at the end of Super Bowl 49, fans can expect Lynch to receive every goal line carry.
Other Values: Jeremy Hill, Jonathan Stewart
Players to Avoid: Jamaal Charles, Justin Forsett
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
| Player | Receiving Yards | Rank | Draft Kings | DK Rank | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr | 102.5 | 1 | $9200 | 1 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 91.5 | 2 | $8500 | 4 | 2 |
| Dez Bryant | 89.5 | 3 | $8700 | 3 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 88.5 | 4 | $9100 | 2 | -2 |
| AJ Green | 86.5 | 5 | $7800 | 8 | 3 |
| Randall Cobb | 83.5 | 6 | $8000 | 6 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffrey | 77.5 | 7 | $8300 | 5 | -2 |
| TY Hilton | 73.5 | 8 | $7600 | 9 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 70.5 | 9 | $7900 | 7 | -2 |
| DeSean Jackson | 67.5 | 10 | $6800 | 10 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 67.5 | 10 | $6400 | 12 | 2 |
| Golden Tate | 67.5 | 10 | $6300 | 13 | 3 |
| Andre Johnson | 64.5 | 13 | $6100 | 14 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 61.5 | 14 | $6600 | 11 | -3 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 60.5 | 15 | $5500 | 18 | 3 |
| Greg Olsen* | 57.5 | 16 | $5300 | 19 | 3 |
| Jimmy Graham* | 55.5 | 17 | $5600 | 17 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 53.5 | 18 | $6000 | 15 | -3 |
| Malcom Floyd | 52.5 | 19 | $5800 | 16 | -3 |
| Travis Kelce* | 52.5 | 20 | $4800 | 20 | 0 |
| Jason Witten* | 49.5 | 21 | $4000 | 22 | -1 |
| Terrance Williams | 42.5 | 22 | $4000 | 22 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 40.5 | 23 | $4800 | 20 | -3 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 36.5 | 24 | $3700 | 24 | 0 |
The last player prop we examined was receiving yards, and we chose to include the four listed tight ends in the conversation. Odell Beckham Jr. is the consensus number one receiver this week with an over/under of 102.5 receiving yards and a Draft Kings price of $9200. So which players are offering value?
Oddsmakers have set the over/under for AJ Green at 86.5 receiving yards, which ranks fifth. At Draft Kings, Green is priced at just $7800 which makes him the 8th most expensive receiver. This three-spot discrepancy indicates that Green could be a nice value on Sunday.
Other Values: Golden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Olsen*
Players to Avoid: Kenny Britt, Marques Colston, Malcom Floyd
We stress that total yards are only one factor to consider, and having odds for each player to score a touchdown would provide a more accurate indicator of true value. For anybody interested in Daily Fantasy (DFS) make sure to check out Fantasy Labs for access to Pro Models, Lineup Optimizer and other unique data for your Week 1 lineup.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
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