How Has the First Day of Free Agency Affected NFL Win Totals?
Several weeks ago, GC Technology became the first major sportsbook to post NFL win totals for the upcoming 2016 season. Their numbers had the Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Steelers and Seahawks leading the way with 10.5 projected wins, while the Browns were viewed as the league’s weakest team with an over/under of 4.5 wins.
Yesterday marked the first day of free agency, and there were several moves that send shock waves around the league. On the defensive side, former Dolphins DE Olivier Vernon signed a five-year, $85 million contract with the Giants, former Broncos DE Malik Jackson signed a six-year, $90 million deal with the Jaguars and former Seahawks LB Bruce Irvin signed a four-year, $40 million deal with the Raiders.
On the offensive side of the football, the biggest surprise came from the Houston Texans who managed to snag a potential franchise quarterback (Brock Osweiler) and running back (Lamar Miller). This development was devastating for the Denver Broncos following Peyton Manning’s retirement announcement earlier this week.
These moves caused major movement to the win totals at CG Technology as you can see from the table below.
| TEAM | CG Technology (3/10) | CG TECHNOLOGY (2/25) |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 9.5 (o-120) | 9.5 (o-120) |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 (o-120) | 7 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7.5 (o-155) | 7.5 (u-125) |
| Buffalo Bills | 8 | 8 |
| Carolina Panthers | 10.5 (u-125) | 10.5 (u-130) |
| Chicago Bears | 6.5 (o-125) | 6.5 (o-120) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 4.5 (o-145) | 4.5 (o-130) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9 (u-135) | 9 (u-125) |
| Denver Broncos | 9.5 (u-150) | 9.5 (u-120) |
| Detroit Lions | 7 (o-130) | 7 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o-155) | 10.5 |
| Houston Texans | 8 (o-125) | 8 (u-130) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (o-180) | 8.5 (o-130) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 (o-125) | 6 (o-130) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9 (o-160) | 9 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 (u-130) | 7 (o-130) |
| Miami Dolphins | 7 (o-120) | 7 (u-125)` |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 (o-150) | 9 (o-120) |
| New England Patriots | 10.5 (u-125) | 10.5 (o-120) |
| New Orleans Saints | 6.5 (u-120) | 7 (u-130) |
| New York Giants | 7.5 (o-130) | 7.5 (o-130) |
| New York Jets | 8 (o-125) | 8 (o-125) |
| Oakland Raiders | 8 (u-130) | 7.5 (o-135) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u-135) | 7.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10.5 (u-135) | 10.5 (u-125) |
| San Diego Chargers | 7 (u-145) | 7 (u-120) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5 (o-145) | 5 (o-120) |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o-125) | 10.5 (o-125) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.5 (o-130) | 6.5 (u-125) |
| Tennessee Titans | 5.5 (o-130) | 5.5 (o-130) |
| Washington Redskins | 7.5 (o-120) | 7.5 (o-120) |
Although the Broncos win total did not move following Wednesday’s activity, there was a significant adjustment to the juice on the under which moved from -120 to -150. Similarly, the Texans win total remained unchanged but the juice on the over moved from +100 to -125.
It was interesting to see that the actual win total only changed for three teams: Jacksonville (6 to 6.5), New Orleans (7 to 6.5) and Oakland (7.5 to 8). The Raiders made two major additions to their defense with the high-profile signings of LB Bruce Irvin and CB Sean Smith while the Jaguars also improved their defense by adding DE Malik Jackson and S Tashaun Gipson. Jacksonville also added some much-needed toughness by adding former Jets running back Chris Ivory.
New Orleans did make a major acquisition by signing former Colts TE Coby Fleener to a five-year, $36 million deal but clearly bettors are skeptical about the Saints prospects next season.
Looking at the movement on the juice, some of the most notable teams include: Baltimore 7.5 (u-125 to o-155), Green Bay 10.5 (o-115 to o-155), Indianapolis 8.5 (o-130 to o-180), Kansas City 9 (o-115 to o-160), New England 10.5 (o-120 to u-125), San Diego 7 (u-120 to u-145), San Francisco 5 (o-120 to o-145) and Tampa Bay 6.5 (u-125 to o-130).
It will be interesting to monitor Tom Brady’s on-going court case since the Patriots’ win total could decrease by roughly 0.73 games if Brady were to be suspended for four games. There are also many unsigned free agents that could impact win totals including S Eric Weddle, T Russell Okung, CB Prince Amukamara and several others.
Which teams do you think are offering value? Will you be taking any of these win totals? Can the Broncos overcome these two key losses? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.
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David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@SportsInsights.com
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