2016 NFL Mock Draft: An Oddsmakers Take (Part 1)

2016 NFL Mock Draft: An Oddsmakers Take (Part 1)

The first round of the 2016 NFL draft commences Thursday, April 28th at 8 p.m. ET as teams search for the best young talent from the college ranks. Although fans from across the country will be scouring the internet looking for mock draft predictions for their favorite team, there is a large segment of the population who believe that these mock drafts are typically inaccurate and offer limited insight.

This year’s draft has already provided fireworks with the Los Angeles Rams acquiring the first overall pick from the Tennessee Titans in a blockbuster trade. The consensus opinion was that the Rams wanted to make a splash by drafting a franchise quarterback as they settle into their new home in Los Angeles.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, early indications were the Rams were leaning towards selecting California’s Jared Goff over North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz. That opinion seemed to be confirmed when Sportsbook.com posted odds for the number one pick on Saturday afternoon.

Which QB will be drafted sooner in the 2016 NFL Draft? (via Sportsbk)

Jared Goff -200
Carson Wentz +165

— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) April 16, 2016

Since these odds were posted we have seen some contradicting information regarding the Rams’ selection. Later on Saturday afternoon, Paddy Power listed Wentz (-150) as the favorite to be selected with the first overall pick with Goff listed at +120. That actually created an interesting arbitrage opportunity, albeit with very low limits.

Two days after Sportsbook.com had initially posted this prop bet, they dropped the odds of Goff being selected with the first pick from -200 to -160. At the time of publication, those odds had dropped again to -145. Similarly, Paddy Power has adjusted the odds of Wentz being selected with the top pick from -150 to -120.

Although there’s some contradictory information, bettors should place more stock into the odds being offered by Sportsbook.com than those at Paddy Power. They can both be categorized as square books, but Paddy Power is based in Ireland and they have an inferior understanding of American sports.

Based on most reports, it seems likely that whichever player is not selected by the Rams with the top pick will be snatched up by the Browns with the second pick. Although they added Robert Griffin III in free agency, the team doesn’t appear to believe he’s the long-term answer at quarterback.

Most football analysts seem fairly certain about those top two picks, but there’s lots of uncertainty after that. Luckily, Sportsbook.com posted dozens of prop bets for the 2016 NFL Draft including draft pick over/unders and head-to-head matchups. Using these odds, we were able to project the top sixteen picks according to the oddsmakers.

The table below compares the most recent 2016 NFL mock draft picks from Mel Kiper and Walter Football to these oddsmaker projections to see if there are any discrepancies.

Team	Mel Kiper (4/19)	Walter Football (4/15)	Oddsmakers (4/19)
1. Los Angeles Rams	Jared Goff	Carson Wentz	Jared Goff
2. Cleveland Browns	Carson Wentz	Jared Goff	Carson Wentz
3. San Diego Chargers	Laremy Tunsil	Laremy Tunsil	Jalen Ramsey
4. Dallas Cowboys	Jalen Ramsey	Jalen Ramsey	Laremy Tunsil
5. Jacksonville Jaguars	Myles Jack	Myles Jack	Joey Bosa
6. Baltimore Ravens	Joey Bosa	DeForest Buckner	Myles Jack
7. San Francisco 49ers	Ronnie Stanley	Joey Bosa	DeForest Buckner
8. Philadelphia Eagles	DeForest Buckner	Ezekiel Elliott	Ezekiel Elliott
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jack Conklin	Leonard Floyd	Jack Conklin
10. New York Giants	Laquon Treadwell	Vernon Hargreaves	Ronnie Stanley
11. Chicago Bears	Sheldon Rankins	William Jackson III	Laquon Treadwell
12. New Orleans Saints	William Jackson III	Jack Conklin	Darron Lee
13. Miami Dolphins	Darron Lee	Eli Apple	Taylor Decker
14. Oakland Raiders	Vernon Hargreaves III	Sheldon Rankins	Shaq Lawson
15. Tennessee Titans	Josh Doctson	Ronnie Stanley	Sheldon Rankins
16. Detroit Lions	Shaq Lawson	Jarran Reed	Jarran Reed

One of the largest discrepancies in our mock draft involves Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott. Sportsbook.com has set the over/under for his draft position at 8.5 with -245 juice on the under. He seems like a natural fit for the Philadelphia Eagles (who own the 8th pick) since they traded DeMarco Murray to the Titans back in March, yet Mel Kiper doesn’t have him being selected until the second round.

It’s also interesting to see that Walter Football’s latest mock draft has the Rams selecting Carson Wentz with the first overall pick. Their prediction echoes the sentiment of Paddy Power, but I still believe that Goff will ultimately be the pick.

We should note that some of these odds will likely move dramatically over the next week. All of these props take very low limits, and it doesn’t take much action to cause a sizable shift. For that reason, we’ll release another mock draft (Part 2) right before the draft.

The list below displays all of the various prop bets currently being offered by Sportsbook.com. We will continue to update these as the odds change and new props become available.

Draft Position Over/Under

1. Joey Bosa 3.5 (O-390)
2. Laremy Tunsil 4.5 (U-285)
3. Myles Jack 5.5 (O-135)
4. DeForest Buckner 6.5 (O-135)
5. Ezekiel Elliott 8.5 (U-245)
6. Ronnie Stanley 10.5 (U-210)
7. Darron Lee 10.5 (O-340)
8. Shaq Lawson 14.5 (U-120)
9. Laquon Treadwell 20.5 (U-145)
10. Corey Coleman 21.5 (O-140)
11. Josh Doctson 22.5 (O-140)
12. Paxton Lynch 28.5 (U-280)
13. Connor Cook 31.5 (U-150)
14. Derrick Henry 36.5 (O-185)
15. Pharoh Cooper 56.5 (U-135)

Drafted First (Head-to-Head)

1. Jared Goff -145 vs. Carson Wentz +115
2. Laremy Tunsil -125 vs. Jalen Ramsey -115
3. Myles Jack -140 vs. Joey Bosa +100
4. Josh Doctson -120 vs. Laquon Treadwell -120
5. Will Fuller -130 vs. Corey Coleman -110
6. Paxton Lynch -275 vs. Connor Cook +190

Drafted First (Group)

Group 1

Player	Odds
Jalen Ramsey	-130
Laremy Tunsil	+150
Joey Bosa	+500
Myles Jack	+700

Group 2

Player	Odds
Joey Bosa	+100
Myles Jack	+200
DeForest Buckner	+250
Ezekiel Elliott	+700

Group 3

Player	Odds
Ronnie Stanley	-180
Shaq Lawson	+250
Jarran Reed	+500
Sheldon Rankins	+500

Group 4

Player	Odds
Jack Conklin	+100
Laquon Treadwell	+200
Darron Lee	+250
Taylor Decker	+500

Group 5

Player	Odds
Corey Coleman	+225
Josh Doctson	+225
Robert Nkemdiche	+225
Will Fuller	+225

Miscellaneous

1. 2.5 Quarterbacks Selected in the 1st Round (O-525)
2. 5.5 Running Backs and Wide Receivers Selected in the 1st Round (U-245)
3. 3.5 Offensive Linemen Selected in the 1st Round (O-450)
4. 7.5 Defensive Linemen Selected in the 1st Round (O-135)
5. 4.5 Linebackers Selected in the 1st Round (O-200)
6. 13.5 Offensive Players Selected in the 1st Round (U-140)
7. 17.5 Defensive Players Selected in the 1st Round (U-150)
8. 5.5 Ohio State Players Selected in the 1st Round (U-130)
9. 13.5 Ohio State Players Selected in the Entire Draft (U-125)
10. 3.5 Alabama Players Players Selected in the 1st Round (U-130)
11. 2.5 Ole Miss Players Selected in the 1st Round (O-130)
12. 1.5 Notre Dame Players Selected in the 1st Round (O-165)
13. 8.5 SEC Players Players Selected in the 1st Round (U-160)

What do you think of our mock draft? Do you disagree with any selections? Are any prop bets offering value? Please leave any thoughts or comments in the section below.