2016-17 Champions League Final Preview: Juventus vs. Real Madrid
Real Madrid are back in the Champions League Final, ready to defend their title from the 2015-16 season when they beat Atletico Madrid in penalty kicks 5-3 (after drawing 1-1 in regulation and extra time). This time they’ll face Italian Serie A winners Juventus, who have already knocked out Barcelona in this competition this season. The final will take place on June 3rd at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, Wales. Here are each clubs’ Champions League title odds throughout the season:
| Club (Country) | May 11 (5Dimes) | Apr 21 (5Dimes) | Mar 17 (5Dimes) | Jan 29 (5Dimes) | Dec 9 (5Dimes) | Aug 26 (CRIS) | June 27 (CRIS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus (ITA) | +110 | +165 | +1075 | +1275 | +1400 | +1000 | +1400 |
| Real Madrid (SPA) | -130 | +170 | +550 | +475 | +500 | +475 | +475 |
| Atletico Madrid (SPA) | N/A | +400 | +600 | +900 | +1400 | +1400 | +1100 |
| Monaco (FRA) | N/A | +775 | +1450 | +6500 | +8500 | +10000 | N/A |
| Barcelona (SPA) | N/A | N/A | +280 | +330 | +305 | +300 | +275 |
| FC Rostov (RUS) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +15000 | N/A |
| Borussia Dortmund (GER) | N/A | N/A | +900 | +1300 | +1400 | +1700 | +2500 |
| Leicester City (ENG) | N/A | N/A | +3200 | +5500 | +4500 | +5000 | +8000 |
| Sevilla (SPA) | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5300 |
| PSG (FRA) | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3600 | +2800 | +1200 | +1300 |
| Tottenham (ENG) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3300 | +5000 |
| Manchester City (ENG) | N/A | N/A | N/A | +1100 | +1200 | +900 | +1200 |
| Napoli (ITA) | N/A | N/A | N/A | +7000 | +5500 | +6000 | +4000 |
| Porto (POR) | N/A | N/A | N/A | +11000 | +12500 | +6000 | +10000 |
| Benfica (POR) | N/A | N/A | N/A | +13500 | +12500 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Bayer Leverkusen (GER) | N/A | N/A | N/A | +15500 | +10000 | +8000 | +6600 |
| Bayern Munich (GER) | N/A | N/A | +310 | +395 | +350 | +400 | +400 |
| Lyon (FRA) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +15000 | +12500 |
| Borussia Monchengladbach (GER) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +15000 | +10000 |
| Basel (SUI) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +15000 | +25000 |
| CSKA Moscow (RUS) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +15000 | +15000 |
| Ludogrets (BLG) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +15000 | N/A |
| Legia Warsaw (POL) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +50000 | N/A |
| Sporting (POR) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +15000 | +15000 |
| PSV Eindhoven (NED) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +16600 | +15000 |
| Besiktas (TUR) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +20000 | +20000 |
| Dynamo Kiev (UKR) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +20000 | +20000 |
| Copenhagen (DEN) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +20000 | N/A |
| Club Brugge (BEL) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +25000 | +25000 |
| Celtic (SCO) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +35000 | N/A |
| Dinamo Zagreb (CRO) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +50000 | N/A |
| Arsenal (ENG) | N/A | N/A | N/A | +2450 | +2000 | +2500 | +2300 |
Juventus reached a high of +1400 during the tournament, while Real Madrid have been one of of the favorites throughout, reaching a peak of +550. These odds are to lift the trophy, so it includes extra time and penalty kicks.
As for the final matchup, here are the 3-way moneylines at Pinnacle (based on 90 minutes– if game goes to extra time, the DRAW wins):
Open to Current
Juventus +199 to +204
Real Madrid +167 to +166
Draw +221 to +217
Juventus opened +199 and dropped to +185 early on, but are now back up to +204. Real Madrid were available at +174 a couple weeks ago but tickets/money have brought them back down to +166. The draw opened +221, moved up to +235, but is down to +217. Here’s a look at odds at Pinnacle and the betting breakdown around the market on Juventus:
I tend to lean toward the draw for big final matchups, whether it’s the Champions League, World Cup, Euro Championships, etc and it’s been proven to be a profitable strategy. Finals are usually tightly-contested, highly-bet games where the public likes to pick a side to win but 3 of the last 5 finals have gone to extra time.
Right now more than 40% of tickets are on Real Madrid and more than 40% on Juventus. Less than 10% of tickets are on the Draw, yet we’ve still seen some reverse-line movement (+221 to +217) from open to current. If I’m making a bet on this game on the 3-way moneyline, it’s going to be on the Draw.
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