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NFL Marketwatch Week 12 2010-11

Wednesday, 11/24/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of SportsInsights.com, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

SportsInsights takes an academic view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in our popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books and our recent article comparing the sports marketplace to the financial markets.

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 12                                      

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (11-9-1 = 55.0%) 

The Public has a lot to be thankful for, after posting a huge 6-0 record last weekend in lopsided-bet games, having 65% or more bets on one team.  The Public rode big names like Baltimore and Green Bay and hot teams like Philadelphia and Dallas to wins “against the spread” (ATS).  It was a difficult week for many sportsbooks, but they gave just some of their winnings for the season.  It has been a very good season for the sportsbooks because in addition to the regular “vig” they collect on each side of the bets, the Public has had a bad season ATS.  The Public’s 6-0 week leaves the Public with a much more respectable, but still sub-par record of 37-39 = 48.7% for the season in lopsided-bet games.  Historically, this lopsided-bet “trend” has been an important part of the handicapping process for SportsInsights’ members.

SportsInsights’ contrarian methods reflected the poor week for fading the public.  Even so, SportsInsights’ Betting Against the Public methods in the NFL, including Square Plays,Best Bets, and Marketwatch are having a generally good season, with Square Plays and NFL MarketWatch producing a combined winning percentage of about 55%.  Check out the SportsInsights.com Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

SportsInsights stresses that sports investors should research profitable methods and then stick with their approach.  After both hot or cold streaks, we want to emphasize that bettors should stay the course and bet the same amounts.  View Last Week’s Column

What’s the Best Sportsbook to Bet Against the Public?
I get this question all the time from readers.  If you’re planning on “Betting Against the Public” this football season, BetUS is a must-have sportsbook.  BetUS is a “public” book in the sense they get a lot of smaller, public bettors who love the bonuses, freebies, and marketing.  With so many public bettors, BetUS leans their lines and as a result, they consistently offer the best underdog lines and the most generous depositing bonuses. You’ll get an extra 0.5 point to 1.0 point every time you make a bet.  Visit BetUS today, it’s where I bet!

NFL Week 12 Sports Marketwatch – Game of the Week

SportsInsights.com takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.  SportsInsights.com collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots

With the holiday-shortened week, one of our offshore buddies called us Monday and already had this game circled.  He said that a few of his sharper players jumped on Detroit and that his sharps liked the Lions as a “live dog” this coming week.  Two of SportsInsights’ marketplace indicators confirm this market activity.  In addition to being one of the most lopsided-bet games of the week, this Thanksgiving match-up is attracting the heaviest betting activity of the week so far.

The 2-8 Lions and 8-2 Patriots are two teams seemingly headed in opposite directions.  The Patriots are coming off of two impressive wins against Pittsburgh and then the Colts.  Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off of a 35-19 thumping at the hands of a sub-par Dallas Cowboy team and are currently riding a three-game losing streak.  As a result, the Detroit Lions are receiving just 13% of the bets.  In addition, this game exhibits “reverse line movement” — with the opening line of Detroit +7 getting pushed down to Detroit +6.5, even with the vast majority of bets taking New England.  This is a sure sign of “big money” on Detroit — countering the smaller public bets on New England and forcing the line lower.

Let’s “bet against the public” and ride the coattails of the “big money” on Detroit.  What other factors do we like about this selection?

  • With New England coming off of the impressive wins, let’s “sell” the Patriots at a recent high.
  • Fans have memories and feelings that the Patriots are as strong as the monster teams they have had just a few years ago.  This gives added value to the Detroit play.
  • Similarly, we’ll “buy” the Lions at a recent low.
  • Interestingly, the books with the “sharper” players have the game listed at Detroit +6.5, while the “Public” books are at Detroit +7.
  • New England has the NFL’s highest-scoring offense, but their defense is ranked just #23 in points scored.  New England is also ranked #31 in passing yards against.  Number 31 out of 32 teams.
  • Although Detroit lost to Dallas 35-19, last week, the score made Detroit look worse than the actual game.  Detroit actually led the game at half-time, and trailed by just 20-19 late in the fourth quarter.
  • Although Detroit is just 2-8, they have scored about as many points as they have given up for the season.

Remember to shop around for the best line, monitor the latest line and make sure you at least grab the key number of seven.

Detroit Lions +7 (Bet at Bodog +7)  

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time odds,betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com