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NFL Marketwatch Week 15 2010-11

12/17/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of SportsInsights.com, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try SportsInsights.com’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

SportsInsights takes an academic view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in our popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books and our recent articles on (1) comparing the sports marketplace to the financial markets and (2) Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 15

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (13-10-1 = 56.5%) 

After several weeks of decent performance, the Public had a slightly down week, going 5-6 (with one push) in “lopsided-bet games,” which are defined as games having 65% or more bets on one team.  Going into Monday Night’s doubleheader of games, the public was just 3-6 in lopsided-bet games.  On Sunday, public favorites like the Jets, Green Bay & the Eagles failed to cover.  Last Thursday, Indy failed to cover, surprising many.  However, on Monday, both Baltimore and the NY Giants covered the point spreads — as favorites in their lopsided-bet games — to save the public from a disastrous week.  The Public’s 5-6 week brings the Public’s record to 49-52 = 48.5% in lopsided-bet games this season.  This lopsided-bet “trend” has historically been an edge for contrarian sports investors.

SportsInsights’ contrarian methods had another good week, with NFL Squares, Best Bets, and Marketwatch going 5-3 in total.  SportsInsights’ Betting Against the Publicmethods in the NFL, including Square Plays, Best Bets, and Marketwatch are having a solid season, with Square Plays and NFL MarketWatch producing a combined winning percentage of about 55%.  Check out the SportsInsights.com Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

SportsInsights stresses that sports investors should research profitable methods and then stick with their approach.  After both hot or cold streaks, we want to emphasize that bettors should stay the course and bet the same amounts.  View Last Week’s Column

What’s the Best Sportsbook to Bet Against the Public?
I get this question all the time from readers.  If you are planning on “Betting Against the Public,” BetUS is a must-have sportsbook.  BetUS is a “public” book in the sense they get a lot of smaller, public, bettors who love the bonuses, freebies, and marketing.  With so many public bettors, BetUS leans their lines and as a result, they consistently offer the best underdog lines and the most generous depositing bonuses. You’ll get an extra 0.5 point to 1.0 point every time you make a bet.  Visit BetUS today, it’s where I bet!

NFL Week 15 Sports Marketwatch – Game of the Week

SportsInsights.com takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.  SportsInsights.com collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks

This game was highlighted by SportsInsights.com’s Opening Line Report, as posted on our blog.  This game remains the heaviest-bet game of the week.  It is also, by far, the most lopsided-bet game of the week.  Including teasers and parlays, more than 90% of the bets are taking the red-hot Falcons.  It doesn’t get more one-sided than that!  As usual, our readers will say that “betting against the Public” and taking the Seahawks — is one “ugly-looking” play.

The 11-2 Falcons have the best record in the NFC and have won seven games in a row.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks stand at 6-7.  CRIS opened the line at Atlanta -6.5, but early sharp action on Seattle moved the line down to Atlanta -6.  This indicates the existence of “big, smart, money” on Seattle as a live, home dog.  We’ll “bet against the Public” and tail the “smart money” in this match-up.  Below are some other notes on this match-up that SportsInsights’ analysts studied:

  • Atlanta has won seven games in a row, so we are “selling at a high.”
  • Seven of Atlanta’s eleven victories have been by a TD or less, meaning that they have not blown many teams out.  
  • Although Atlanta is tied with New England for the best record in the NFL, their net points (Points For – Points Against) of +92 is tied with Pittsburgh for fourth best in the NFL.
  • Seattle’s net points of -68 shows that overall, they have been competitive this season.
  • After a 4-2 start, Seattle has gone 2-5 over its past seven games, getting blown out in those five losses.  Let’s “buy them at a low” and try to grab some value.
  • Seattle is a “live home dog,” with a 4-2 record at home — and getting about a touchdown’s worth of points..
  • Note that home dogs have historically been a good bet, especially late in the NFL season, as mentioned in this academic article.

Remember to shop around for the best line, monitor the latest line — and try to grab the key number of seven.  Grab Seattle +7 if you see it.  Currently, several public books such as Bodog and SIA have the game listed at +7.

Seattle Seahawks +7 (Bet at Bodog +7)

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time odds,betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com