Examining NFL Key Numbers for Over/Unders
Most sports bettors are familiar with the importance of shopping for the best line and ensuring that you get the best number available. This is particularly true with key numbers — typically multiples of 3 or 7. A disproportionate number of games land on these numbers which increased the significance of getting the hook.
While key numbers are commonplace when applied to the spread, far fewer bettors are familiar with key numbers when pertaining to totals. Using the historical data archive utilized by our Bet Labs software, we examined the most common combined scoring output for every NFL game dating back to 2003. The table below illustrates the most common point totals.
Note: Since there has never been a total under 30 we left it off our graph, however, 16.3% of all games we examined have finished with fewer than 30 combined point scored. Conversely, 12.2% of all games we examined finished with more than 58 combined points scored.
| Points Scored | % of Games |
|---|---|
| 30 | 3.73 |
| 31 | 1.73 |
| 32 | 1.08 |
| 33 | 3.08 |
| 34 | 2.73 |
| 35 | 1.60 |
| 36 | 2.04 |
| 37 | 4.25 |
| 38 | 2.25 |
| 39 | 1.69 |
| 40 | 3.34 |
| 41 | 4.07 |
| 42 | 1.26 |
| 43 | 3.81 |
| 44 | 4.12 |
| 45 | 2.64 |
| 46 | 1.73 |
| 47 | 2.99 |
| 48 | 3.47 |
| 49 | 1.73 |
| 50 | 2.34 |
| 51 | 3.47 |
| 52 | 2.25 |
| 53 | 1.52 |
| 54 | 1.56 |
| 55 | 2.3 |
| 56 | 0.56 |
| 57 | 1.73 |
| 58 | 2.34 |
As you can see from the graph, the most common data points (in order) are 37, 44, 41, 43 and 30. This should not be surprising to NFL fans who are accustomed to seeing final scores like 20-17, 24-20 or 21-20.
We recommend that all NFL bettors keep this information on hand to ensure that they take advantage of key numbers for the remainder of the season.
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