NFL 2017: Week 6 Opening Line Report

NFL 2017: Week 6 Opening Line Report

Not gonna lie…this week looks ugly. There are only two or three games that look good on paper and there are currently six favorites of a touchdown or more with potentially more depending on whether Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota play.

Don’t expect another Packers-Cowboys thriller.

Bye week: Buffalo, Dallas, Cincinnati, Seattle

Coming off bye: Atlanta, Denver, New Orleans, Washington

Eagles at Panthers

The Thursday night game honestly might be the best of the week, which is both bogus and sad.

These two 4-1 division leaders will clash in Carolina, with Cam Newton and Carson Wentz both looking to improve upon great starts to the season. This line opened with Carolina -3, meaning that oddsmakers essentially see these teams as equals if you take away home-field advantage.

Though many bettors are jumping at the chance to get Philly at +3, money on Carolina has moved the line from -3 to -3.5 since opening. We saw a prime example last night of how important timing can be when betting on a team with the line around a field goal when Minnesota (opened -2, closed -3.5) won by 3.

With this game taking place on Color Rush night, the line doesn’t have as much time to “mature”. Some books around the market still have the line at 3, so choose your spot wisely and don’t get porked by a half point loss like Vikings bettors did last night.

Patriots at Jets

Before the season began, I don’t think anyone would expect these two teams to be tied atop the division with a 3-2 record through five games. I also doubt anyone would expect the spread to be single digits, but it is just holding on at 9.5. How long will it stay that way, though?

Last season, the Jets handed the Patriots just one of their three losses against the spread when they were +9 at home and lost by only five. Only 18% of bettors took them in that game. In their Christmas Eve rematch, the Pats were whopping 17 point favorites and won 41-3. A lofty 38% of bettors risked their money on the Jets plus two TDs and a field goal, but came up a few touchdowns short.

With the Pats scuffling and the Jets shocking the world with three straight wins, close to 30% of bettors are braving the Jets. They can be found at +10 at square books like Bovada, BetUS, and Sportsbook. I expect this level of one sided betting to continue throughout the week, with the potential for buyback taking place if the line reaches double digits at sharper books.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

This matchup features the two teams with the most volatile Super Bowl stocks after this past week. The Chiefs’ implied odds rose the most of anyone in the league following their win in Houston, while the Steelers’ implied odds fell the most after their dismal performance against the Jaguars.

This game could, and I emphasize could, be great and we could see Pittsburgh dethrone the final undefeated team, but Big Ben can’t be a bottom of the barrel QB. Right now, his quarterback rating places him between Mike Glennon, Brian Hoyer, and Jay Cutler. He hasn’t been sensational the past couple of years, but he needs to be at least an average QB for Pittsburgh to stand a chance.

His most recent performance has really turned away public bettors, as the Steelers are only getting 21% of bets so far.

If we look at our book by book breakdown, the sharper books like 5Dimes and Bookmaker are seeing more action on the Steelers than the “squarer” books. This may explain why the line has yet to move to 4.5. This could be a great opportunity to take Pittsburgh in a contrarian spot in what should be one of the most heavily bet games of the week.

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