2017 NFL: Week 7 Opening Line Report
This past week, there were six favorites of a touchdown or more. Only two covered, while two lost straight up.
We haven’t seen an outright win from a 13+ point underdog in the NFL since 2012. We saw two yesterday. pic.twitter.com/igXr2Wwa1z
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 16, 2017
This week, there are zero 7+ point favorites. Whadya know. I guess there won’t be any massive upsets.
| Matchup | Bookmaker Current | Bookmaker Open | Westgate (10/10) |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ OAK | KC -3 | KC -3 | KC -2.5 |
| TEN @ CLE | TEN -5.5 | TEN -5 | N/A |
| JAX @ IND | JAX -3 | JAX -3 | JAX -3 |
| CIN @ PIT | PIT -6 | PIT -5.5 | PIT -7 |
| BAL @ MIN | MIN -5.5 | MIN -4.5 | MIN -3 |
| NYJ @ MIA | MIA -3 | MIA -3.5 | MIA -4.5 |
| TB @ BUF | N/A | N/A | BUF -2 |
| CAR @ CHI | CAR -3 | CAR -4 | CAR -4.5 |
| NO @ GB | NO -6 | NO -5.5 | GB -6.5 |
| ARI vs. LAR | LAR -3.5 | LAR -3 | LAR -3 |
| DAL @ SF | DAL -6 | DAL -6 | DAL -4.5 |
| SEA @ NYG | SEA -5 | SEA -7 | SEA -7.5 |
| DEN @ LAC | LAC -1.5 | DEN -1 | DEN -2.5 |
| ATL @ NE | NE -3 | NE -4.5 | NE -4 |
| WAS @ PHI | PHI -4.5 | PHI -5 | PHI -6.5 |
- Coming off a bye: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, Seattle
- Bye Week: Houston, Detroit
Saints @ Packers
Brees vs. Rodgers. Two heavyweight QBs going at it…oh wait, no. Brees vs. Brett Hundley, nevermind.
Without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are screwed. However, that doesn’t mean that they can’t cover plus six points at home. According to Bet Labs Sports, dogs in the game after their QB has been injured have gone 15-14 ATS, while favorites have gone just 4-12 ATS.
The Packers are getting a bit more love than I expected them to, with close to 40% of bets early in the week. That will likely be higher by the end of the week, too. Though Rodgers is generally viewed as worth 6-7 points to the spread, this line has moved about twice as much as that compared to last week’s early line from Westgate. I believe there will be some buyback and the Packers line will close below +6.
Falcons @ Patriots
Super. Bowl. Rematch. Let’s goooooo.
The Patriots haven’t looked good by any means this season, but the Falcons are coming off of two very disappointing upsets of their own. In fact, their loss to the Dolphins was the biggest upset this season and the biggest since 2011.
Oh boy…Cutler and the #Dolphins come back and WIN!
They closed at +638, easily the biggest upset of the season (KC +385 at NE) pic.twitter.com/RHjwfZ9YEv
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) October 15, 2017
This is just the third Super Bowl rematch to take place in the following season this century, with the victor (and home team) winning and covering the previous two (Broncos vs. Panthers 2016, Seahawks vs. Broncos 2014).
This game opened at Bookmaker with the Patriots a 4.5 point favorite, but quickly moved to -3. Though bets are fairly split, money is heavily favoring the Falcons, whose offense could really have their way with this Pats defense who struggled to even contain Josh McCown.
Since 2003, the Patriots have been a three point favorite or less just 12 times at home with Tom Brady starting and have gone 8-2-2 ATS over that small sample size.
Seahawks @ Giants
Well, how about that. The Giants roll out the JV squad on offense and put up the 2nd most points they’ve scored all season against a great defense and more importantly, get their first win.
The Seahawks are coming off a bye week, which has historically been a strong spot for favorites (138-112, 57.5% ATS), while teams coming off a huge (20+) point cover as a dog have gone just 94-111 (45.9% ATS.)
Though there are a couple of strong trends pointing towards the Seahawks, the line is swinging towards the G-Men in the early going.
Bets are almost split 50/50 on the button, but the Giants are getting close to 75% of spread dollars. They gradually moved from +7 to +5 after opening yesterday morning, but have remained at +5 for almost 24 hours.
Follow the lines and percentages throughout the week by checking in on our free NFL odds page.
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