Despite Ranking, Buckeyes Still a Major Title Contender

Despite Ranking, Buckeyes Still a Major Title Contender

Last night we got our first glimpse into the minds of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, and there were certainly some surprises. Neither Notre Dame (+500) nor Clemson (+250) were expected to make the initial top 4 in last week’s Bookmaker odds, and Alabama was a -4000 favorite to be ranked #1.

Week 10 College Football Playoff Rankings:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Clemson
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State pic.twitter.com/ONoeGNq11X

— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) October 31, 2017

Now that the rankings are out, BetOnline has released updated odds to win the National Championship. Let’s take a look.

Following their thrilling win over Penn State, Ohio State has jumped from +600 to +350, making them the second most likely team (22.2% implied probability) to win the title. The rankings, however, suggest that the Buckeyes don’t control their own destiny, though it’s hard to imagine that the committee wouldn’t include them in the playoff if they were to win out, as that would likely include a win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship.

Ranked one spot ahead of Ohio State in the initial CFP rankings is Oklahoma, who got the best of the Buckeyes back in early September. Despite being ranked 5th in the nation, the Sooners are tied as the ninth most likely team to win the title according to their BetOnline odds (+3300). Looking ahead at Oklahoma’s next two opponents, it’s easy to understand why. They’ll play at Oklahoma State this week, followed by a home meeting with TCU.

Notre Dame made the biggest leap of the week, catapulted by an impressive 35-14 win over NC State, as well as their #3 ranking from the selection committee last night. The Irish are now +1400 to win the title, but still have to go on the road to Miami and Stanford before season’s end.

We’ve never seen two teams from the same conference in the College Football Playoff, but if both Georgia and Alabama are undefeated heading into an SEC title game, it’ll be hard for the committee to leave one of them out, regardless of the winner. It should be noted that both teams have a trip to Auburn remaining on their schedule, so it’s no given that they’d meet as undefeated teams. And although it’s a tall task, Auburn could re-enter the title conversation if they can somehow pull out victories in those games. They’re currently +5000 with the #14 ranking, making them the highest ranked two-loss team in the country.