Celtics Win Streak Propelling Title Odds
After the Gordon Hayward injury and a couple of losses to begin the season, the Celtics’ title hopes took a hit. Though nobody besides the Warriors and Cavs really has a decent chance at winning the title, Boston’s implied probability fell from 7.69% to 4.58% within a week after the season began…not good.
NBA Title odds (@5Dimes)#Warriors -165#Cavs +455#Rockets +1500#Spurs +1800#Thunder +2000#Celtics +2085 #Wizards +4500
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) October 23, 2017
Since then, they’ve been picking up the pieces. They’re not quite back to where they were before the season, but their 13 game win streak has proven that they are still legit without Hayward.
NBA Title
Team | November 15 (5Dimes) | October 17 (5Dimes) | July 7 (5Dimes) | July 1 (5Dimes) | June 28 (Westgate) | June 23 (5Dimes) | June 13 (BetOnline) | May 28 (Westgate) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Warriors | -175 | -187 | -168 | -163 | -220 | -168 | -150 | -160 |
Cavs | +540 | +515 | +350 | +350 | +300 | +330 | +450 | +250 |
Celtics | +1390 | +1200 | +750 | +900 | +1500 | +1400 | +1600 | +1500 |
Rockets | +1425 | +2150 | +1050 | +1050 | +1500 | +3300 | +2500 | +3000 |
Spurs | +1625 | +1800 | +1000 | +1000 | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 | +1000 |
Thunder | +2500 | +2150 | +3000 | +3000 | +8000 | +15000 | +5000 | +6000 |
Wizards | +3750 | +9000 | +2800 | +2800 | +4000 | +5000 | +4000 | +3000 |
Timberwolves | +6600 | +5000 | +3500 | +5000 | +6000 | +6600 | +10000 | +10000 |
Bucks | +6600 | +8000 | +4500 | +4500 | +6000 | +6600 | +5000 | +6000 |
Raptors | +6600 | +15000 | +5000 | +5000 | +8000 | +6600 | +5000 | +6000 |
Clippers | +10000 | +19000 | +6600 | +6600 | +10000 | +6600 | +4000 | +3000 |
76ers | +15000 | +19000 | +10000 | +10000 | +8000 | +25000 | +10000 | +10000 |
Heat | +17500 | +24000 | +7000 | +8000 | +8000 | +12500 | +12500 | +10000 |
Nuggets | +20000 | +20000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +25000 | +10000 | +10000 |
Grizzlies | +20000 | +37000 | +10000 | +10000 | +20000 | +12500 | +8000 | +10000 |
Hornets | +24500 | +50000 | +15000 | +15000 | +30000 | +40000 | +12500 | +30000 |
Jazz | +25000 | +25000 | +3300 | +3300 | +10000 | +15000 | +5000 | +10000 |
Blazers | +25000 | +31500 | +12500 | +12500 | +10000 | +15000 | +12500 | +10000 |
Pelicans | +27500 | +22000 | +6000 | +6000 | +8000 | +10000 | +5000 | +8000 |
Pistons | +30000 | +63000 | +15000 | +15000 | +20000 | +30000 | +12500 | +20000 |
Magic | +30000 | +250000 | +50000 | +50000 | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 |
Pacers | +50000 | +125000 | +20000 | +20000 | +30000 | +20000 | +10000 | +10000 |
Lakers | +100000 | +30000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +12500 | +10000 | +10000 |
Mavericks | +100000 | +50000 | +15000 | +15000 | +20000 | +25000 | +12500 | +20000 |
Knicks | +100000 | +100000 | +15000 | +15000 | +50000 | +30000 | +15000 | +30000 |
Nets | +100000 | +250000 | +50000 | +50000 | +100000 | +100000 | +500000 | +100000 |
Kings | +200000 | +125000 | +50000 | +50000 | +100000 | +100000 | +500000 | +100000 |
Hawks | +200000 | +200000 | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 | +30000 | +15000 | +20000 |
Bulls | +200000 | +250000 | +10000 | +10000 | +50000 | +20000 | +10000 | +10000 |
Suns | +999999 | +125000 | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 | +100000 | +50000 | +50000 |
I wish this was like any other sport where you could see some legitimate odds changes, but this is the NBA, where one team has over a 60% chance of winning the title before the season even starts.
While other teams like the Rockets and Wizards have made big jumps on the odds list over the first month, their implied probabilities have only gone up by a couple percentage points.
The Cavs eeked out a win against the Knicks to claw back to the .500 mark, but despite their awful start to the season, their odds have hardly moved. Oddsmakers are likely assuming that once the playoffs come around, they’ll be the same Cavs team that has made it to the finals in three straight seasons. And unfortunately, they’ll probably be right.
Below are updated odds for each conference. At what point do the Cavs cease to be the odds-on favorite in the east?
Eastern Conference
Team | 5Dimes (11/15) | 5Dimes (10/17) | BetOnline (7/6) | Westgate (6/24) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland | -140 | -165 | -140 | -250 |
Boston | +310 | +245 | +275 | +450 |
Washington | +1100 | +2200 | +1000 | +1200 |
Milwaukee | +1725 | +2000 | +1400 | +1500 |
Toronto | +1725 | +3100 | +1400 | +2000 |
Philadelphia | +3900 | +3800 | +2500 | +2000 |
Miami | +4600 | +4000 | +4000 | +2000 |
Charlotte | +6600 | +7500 | +5000 | +10000 |
Orlando | +7500 | +25000 | +3300 | +40000 |
Detroit | +7500 | +9000 | +5000 | +6000 |
Indiana | +11000 | +14000 | +6600 | +10000 |
New York | +20000 | +12000 | +5000 | +20000 |
Brooklyn | +20000 | +25000 | +25000 | +40000 |
Atlanta | +35000 | +21000 | +8000 | +6000 |
Chicago | +35000 | +25000 | +10000 | +20000 |
Western Conference
Team | 5Dimes (11/15) | 5Dimes (10/17) | BetOnline (7/6) | Westgate (6/24) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Golden State | -245 | -355 | -325 | -500 |
Houston | +780 | +1100 | +600 | +1500 |
San Antonio | +915 | +1000 | +600 | +650 |
Oklahoma City | +1350 | +1100 | +2500 | +4000 |
Minnesota | +3000 | +2600 | +2000 | +3000 |
Los Angeles Clippers | +4750 | +8000 | +5000 | +2000 |
Denver | +6600 | +8000 | +6600 | +5000 |
Memphis | +6600 | +12500 | +6600 | +10000 |
Utah | +7500 | +9000 | +4000 | +5000 |
Portland | +7500 | +10500 | +8000 | +5000 |
New Orleans | +8000 | +8300 | +4000 | +5000 |
Los Angeles Lakers | +20000 | +9500 | +5000 | +5000 |
Dallas | +20000 | +13500 | +10000 | +10000 |
Sacramento | +35000 | +32500 | +350000 | +50000 |
Phoenix | +100000 | +32500 | +350000 | +25000 |
Keep in touch with the news by following @SportsInsights and @ActionNetwork as we march onwards into a potentially interesting NBA season.
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