Bettors Rejoice! Profitable Chip Kelly Back in College Football
UCLA hired Chip Kelly on Saturday, giving the former Oregon coach a five-year deal to help resurrect a program that went 17-19 the past three seasons under Jim Mora.
Kelly’s four-year run at Oregon was profitable for the Ducks and bettors alike. Here’s a full rundown:
Against the spread
Kelly went 27-17-3 overall against the number, good for a +14% ROI. His performance versus conference foes was particularly notable, as he compiled the fifth-most money won for bettors ($100 wagers) in these situations from 2009-12:
| Coach | ATS | ROI | Money Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Snyder | 25-8-1 | 46.5% | $1,581 |
| Dabo Swinney | 23-11 | 32.5% | $1,105 |
| Willie Taggart | 17-7 | 38.6% | $926 |
| Mike Gundy | 22-12 | 27% | $917 |
| Chip Kelly | 22-12-3 | 24.5% | $908 |
Bruins fans aren’t used to having a coach who makes a habit of covering the number. UCLA went .417 ATS in Pac-12 games from 2013-17.
Kelly also did work for contrarian bettors, racking up a 8-1 ATS record when getting fewer than 50% of spread tickets.
Over/under
You may have heard: Kelly’s team like to score points. Bookmakers know this, of course, but they often couldn’t make the total high enough to account for Oregon’s high-octane offense.
The over cashed in 70.2% of Oregon regular-season games under Kelly (33-14). (Note: Two games from Kelly’s tenure didn’t feature a total — Portland State in 2010 and Tennessee Tech in 2012.) Only one other college coach from 2009-12 made more money for over bettors than Kelly ($100 wagers):
| Coach | Over/Under | ROI | Money Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bret Bielema | 34-16-1 | 31.6% | $1,614 |
| Chip Kelly | 34-17 | 30.8% | $1,573 |
| Derek Dooley | 29-16-1 | 25.8% | $1,186 |
| Sonny Dykes | 24-11-1 | 32% | $1,152 |
Bielema parlayed his high-scoring ways into a job with Arkansas, while Kelly jumped ship to the NFL. Both experiments ended in failure and firings, with Bielema getting canned this weekend. Kelly now gets a chance to recreate his Oregon magic, in a familiar conference and within familiar recruiting turf.
Bettors will be banking on that breeding some familiar results.
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