07
January
NFL Over / Under Betting Trends
01/07/2011
In NFL
We often get a lot of questions about Over/Under picks and why Sports Insights does not offer more of them. The short answer is because the data for totals does not show the profitability that the data for spread wagers does. For our philosophy of betting against the public, it just doesn’t work. Here is the data for unders since the 2003 season in the NFL:
| NFL Under Records | ||
| % of Bets | Record | Units |
| 20 or less | 85-87 (49.4%) | -9.7 |
| 30 or less | 399-411 (49.2%) | -48.3 |
| 40 or less | 763-833 (47.8%) | -139.4 |
| 50 or less | 1048-1081 (49.2%) | -128.4 |
| ANY | 1264-1280 (49.7%) | -131.0 |
The problem is, even if you take all of the Overs on the other side, you still are not going to hit a high enough percentage to cover the vig. The sportsbooks are doing a very good job of setting the right number and taking advantage of the public.
Josh
01/08/2011 at 11:28 amA further analysis would look at public successes when the total is set above/below key numbers. Is the public more likely to over- or underestimate scoring abilities when the total is set above 48? 37?