Why Has Contrarian NHL Betting Been So Historically Profitable?
With the NHL set to begin a 48-game season this weekend, we took advantage of our Bet Labs software to update our NHL betting against the public analysis.
Our database includes closing moneylines from Pinnacle and moneyline NHL Betting Trends data for all regular and postseason games since the start of the 2005 season.
Due to the number of games each NHL season and the plus-money payouts of moneyline underdogs, NHL bettors with an edge (like those betting against the public) enjoy many opportunities to cash in on that edge.
The results below show both units won and ROI (return on investment) when betting against the public at specific betting percentage levels.
Table 1: NHL Betting Against the Public
| Betting Percentage | Number of Games | Units Won | ROI |
| 45% | 7,649 | +83.71 | +1.1% |
| 35% | 4,380 | +109.56 | +2.5% |
| 25% | 1,733 | +57.75 | +3.3% |
As you can see, betting on NHL teams receiving 35% or less of moneyline wagers has resulted in almost +110 units won. Filtering this down and only betting teams at the 25% level drops units won to +57.75, but the decrease in games actually improves the ROI to +3.3%.
While those results are impressive on their own, NHL betting against the public has been even more profitable when focusing strictly on visiting teams.
Table 2: NHL Visitors and Betting Against the Public
| Betting Percentage | Number of Games | Units Won | ROI |
| 45% | 4,369 | +97.33 | +2.2% |
| 35% | 2,555 | +97.25 | +3.8% |
| 25% | 1,017 | +57.19 | +5.6% |
By omitting home teams, there isn’t much of a drop-off in units won at each betting percentage level, but we once again decrease the number of wagers needed to achieve those results, improving our ROI even further.
While these results are already quite profitable, we can continue to increase ROI by using Bet Labs’ Moneyline List filter to analyze specific moneyline levels.
The table below builds on the same filters as Table 2, but only includes teams who closed between +105 and +200 moneyline underdogs.
Table 3: NHL Visitors and Betting Against the Public (+105 to +200 Underdogs)
| Betting Percentage | Number of Games | Units Won | ROI |
| 45% | 3,387 | +46.50 | +1.4% |
| 35% | 1,891 | +96.27 | +5.1% |
| 25% | 660 | +58.10 | +8.8% |
If you’re interested in doing this analysis or creating your own data-driven NHL Betting Systems, we invite you request a free live demo of our Bet Labs software.
evo34
01/18/2013 at 4:08 pmTo answer the question posed in the headline, I don’t think has been profitable in recent history (last 3 seasons). A major red flag IMO when evaluating any system that relies on historical anomalous behavior.
PJ
01/18/2013 at 4:15 pmI went ahead and updated the research to include only the last three NHL seasons.
Since the start of the 2009 season, NHL visitors who received 35% or less of moneyline bets and closed between +105 and +200 underdogs won +42.25 units for a +3.9% ROI.
In fact, 2006-07 (-7.1 units and -4.2% ROI) was the only losing season for the above criteria, dating back to the 2005 season.
Jay Cross
01/18/2013 at 4:54 pmJust to be clear, the data refers to public betting % at OR BELOW those listed? For example does less than 25% theoretically go down to a betting % below 10% public support?
PJ
01/18/2013 at 4:56 pmYou’re 100% correct Jay. The “25% level” refers to all teams that received between 0% and 25% of moneyline bets, according to our NHL Betting Trends data.
Dirk
01/18/2013 at 5:46 pmIt would be interesting to take it one step further to determine if there is a specific + money range that is more profitable as well. Saying +105 to +200 is a huge range. Is there any way to break it down to Visitors at 35% or less between +105 and +125, between +126 and +150, between +151 and +175 and between +176 and +200?
PJ
01/18/2013 at 6:46 pmIf you’re interested in doing further analysis, our Bet Labs software does allow members to break this down all the way to 5-cent intervals. For example, you could look at only +105 to +110 dogs or add a couple more and look at +105 to +120 dogs.
mike
01/18/2013 at 6:17 pmCould you show breakdown by months please? It’s clear on the chart that you have winning streaks (probably each october, the beginning of the season when lines are not sharp) ? Or i could be wrong, the scale of the chart makes it hard to see which months were profitable and which were losing on NHL?
Thanks for great research.
PJ
01/18/2013 at 6:48 pmHi Mike, our Bet Labs members have the ability to add a Month filter to easily see which months have performed the best from 2005 through last season.
If you’d like to do your own analysis, I’d be happy to set you up with a demo of Bet Labs.
mike
01/19/2013 at 8:19 amI am already a member long ago, but not sure how to do such analysis. I would like to see breakdown by month! thank you!
PJ
01/19/2013 at 9:18 amHi Mike, our Bet Labs software is actually a new product that debuted last summer that allows you to add specific filters to our database in order to build your own betting systems.
If you’re interested in building on this NHL analysis, you can learn more about Bet Labs here:
https://www.sportsinsights.com/sports-betting-software/bet-labs/
If you have any questions, feel free to contact me personally at pj@sportsinsights.com
Adam
01/19/2013 at 10:13 amSo, when you bet are you taking the money line or the spread?
PJ
01/19/2013 at 10:34 amThe analysis in this article includes results for betting teams only on the moneyline.
Jason
01/24/2013 at 2:17 pmWhen I Look at the NHL under the free betting tools it show the spread %. Is that the % of money line bets or puck line bets?
PJ
01/24/2013 at 2:29 pmHey Jason, the percentages on our Free NHL Betting Trends page are puckline betting percentages.
If you’re interested in testing out a free 7 day trial that includes moneyline percentages, I’d be happy to help you get setup.
Feel free to email me personally at pj@sportsinsights.com if you have any questions.
Bear
01/27/2013 at 10:11 pmhow is it doing so far this year?
if im understanding correctly it looks like it was a rough weekend
0-3 saturday
0-3 or 0-4 sunday
PJ
01/28/2013 at 8:29 amI haven’t run the actual numbers yet, but just with the eye test it hasn’t gotten off to a great start.
While this system has been very profitable, it has had losing losing streaks and even one losing season since 2005, so we stress long-term strategy with it.
zen
01/30/2013 at 4:37 pmobvious from the graph this system has shown zero profit over the last three years
PJ
01/30/2013 at 4:40 pmI did this research earlier and the last three years have actually been profitable at the 35% level.
Since the start of the 2009 season, NHL visitors who received 35% or less of moneyline bets and closed between +105 and +200 underdogs won +42.25 units for a +3.9% ROI.
In fact, 2006-07 (-7.1 units and -4.2% ROI) was the only losing season for the above criteria, dating back to the 2005 season.