27
September
NCAA Football Opening Line Report- Week 5
09/27/2011
Every Tuesday, we take a look at the early line movement and college football betting trends for the 15 most heavily bet games, in terms of the number of total bets.
| Team | Betting % | Current | Open | Notes |
| Alabama | 76% | -3.5 | -4.5 | Game of the week right here, with both teams undefeated in the SEC. Even with the reverse-line movement, the public is still heavy on #3 Bama beating the 12th ranked Gators by at least a field goal on the road. |
| Florida | 24% | 3.5 | 4.5 | |
| South Florida | 82% | -1.5 | -2.0 | Most heavily bet game of the week so far, with the public continuing to hammer #16 South Florida, especially after their 52-24 dismantling of UTEP last week. Despite the reverse-line movement the miniscule spread is a virtual pick-em scenario for the public. |
| Pittsburgh | 18% | 1.5 | 2.0 | |
| Nebraska | 44% | 9.0 | 9.5 | Epic matchup right here between bitter Big Ten rivals, with the line remaining relatively static and the public slightly in favor of the #7 Badgers taking down the #8 CornHuskers by nearly double-digits. |
| Wisconsin | 56% | -9.0 | -9.5 | |
| Georgia Tech | 89% | -11.5 | -11.0 | One of the most lopsided games of the week, with nearly 9 out of 10 bets expecting the #21 Yellow Jackets to beat the unranked Wolfpack by double-digits. |
| NC State | 11% | 11.5 | 11.0 | |
| Auburn | 67% | 9.5 | 11.5 | After opening as big favorites, the public appears less and less confident in the #10 Gamecocks winning big at home. As a result, the sportsbooks adjusted their projections in yet another case of reverse-line movement, taking two points away from the visiting Tigers. |
| South Carolina | 33% | -9.5 | -11.5 | |
| Baylor | 82% | -3.5 | -3.5 | Despite more than 8 out of 10 bets taking #15 Baylor to win by at least a field goal, the line has not shifted whatsoever to reflect the public’s hammering of the undefeated Bears on the road. |
| Kansas State | 18% | 3.5 | 3.5 | |
| UCLA | 24% | 20.5 | 21.5 | The public fascination with #6 Stanford and Heisman favorite Andrew Luck appears to be growing stronger ever week, with three out of four bets expecting the Cardinals to blow out the unranked Bruins by just under three scores. |
| Stanford | 76% | -20.5 | -21.5 | |
| Minnesota | 17% | 19.0 | 20.5 | With the public overwhelmingly in favor of the undefeated, 19th ranked Wolverines, the sportsbooks have adjusted their predictions and taken away 1.5 points from the Golden Gophers in yet another case of reverse-line movement. |
| Michigan | 83% | -19.0 | -20.5 | |
| Utah State | 51% | 7.5 | 9.0 | Even with the reverse-line movement taking 1.5 points away from the underdog Aggies, the public appears undecided as to who to take. If you have a coin, think about flipping it. |
| BYU | 49% | -7.5 | -9.0 | |
| Air Force | 41% | 2.5 | 3.0 | Despite blowing out Tenn. St. 63-24 last week, Air Force invades Navy territory as slight underdogs against the well-rested Midshipmen (they didn’t play last week). Nearly 6 out of 10 bets expect Navy to win by at least a field goal, especially after playing #10 South Carolina tough their last game (only lost 24-21 on the road). |
| Navy | 59% | -2.5 | -3.0 | |
| Toledo | 31% | 7.5 | 6.5 | After crushing Maryland 38-7 on the road last week, the public is heavy on Temple to do the same to 1-3 Toledo, even after the adjusted line gave another point to the Rockets. |
| Temple | 69% | -7.5 | -6.5 | |
| Texas Tech | 73% | -6.0 | -7.5 | Even with the sportsbooks taking 1.5 points away from the Jayhawks, the betting public appears confident in the visiting Red Raiders to win by at least one score. |
| Kansas | 27% | 6.0 | 7.5 | |
| Michigan State | 50% | 3.0 | 3.0 | Great value here, with the relatively small points spread remaining static. The public seems to be on the fence, with 50% of spread bets on either side, resulting in a virtual pick-em scenario. |
| Ohio State | 50% | -3.0 | -3.0 | |
| Bowling Green | 25% | 20.5 | 18.5 | Despite being blown out last week 47-21 by then #2 LSU, the public continues to pound the #22 Mountaineer bandwagon, even with the line giving an additional 2 points to the visiting Falcons. |
| West Virginia | 75% | -20.5 | -18.5 | |
| Texas A&M | 44% | -2.5 | -3.0 | Great matchup here as both teams are coming off tough losses last week (Aggies lost 30-29 to OK. St., Razorbacks lost 38-14 to the Crimson Tide) and playing at a neutral location. With reverse line movement taking it under the magic number of 3, the public appears slightly more confident in the Razorbacks winning either straight up or by a couple points as opposed to the Aggies winning by at least a field goal. |
| Arkansas | 56% | 2.5 | 3.0 |
* Betting Percentages reflect Sports Insights’ Spread Betting Trends Data
** Opening and Current Lines from Pinnacle
Luke marthaler
09/28/2011 at 11:40 amnebraska vs wisconsin– bitter big ten rivals??????????????????? 1st game nebraska has ever played in the big ten
PJ
09/28/2011 at 11:44 amHi Luke, that comment was intended to be sarcastic since this is Nebraska’s first game in the Big 10, but it should be a good one.