04
October
NCAA Football Opening Line Report- Week 6
10/04/2011
Every Tuesday, we take a look at the early line movement and college football betting trends for the 15 most heavily bet games, in terms of the number of total bets.
| Team | Betting % | Current | Open | Notes |
| California | 28% | 24.0 | 23.5 | Pac-12 battle between 3-1 teams takes spotlight here as it is marquee Thursday night matchup. With public pounding the 9th ranked Ducks at home, the sportsbooks have adjusted their lines to give the underdog Bears another 1/2 point. |
| Oregon | 72% | -24.0 | -23.5 | |
| Boise State | 82% | -20.5 | -21.0 | Lone Friday night matchup has nearly 8/10 bets taking the undefeated, 5th ranked Broncos to win big on the road. However, reverse-line movement has taken a valuable 1/2 point from the Bulldogs, forcing bettors to decide whether or not they think the visiting Broncos can win by at least 3 TDs. |
| Fresno State | 18% | 20.5 | 21.0 | |
| Illinois | 50% | -14.0 | -16.5 | Great value here with the public evenly split on who to take in this Big Ten matchup, despite reverse-line movement taking 2.5 points away from home dog Indiana. On the surface, 19th ranked Illinois would appear to be a massive favorite, however they barely beat unranked Northwestern last week (38-35), while the 1-4 Hoosiers played Penn State tough on the road (lost 16-10). |
| Indiana | 50% | 14.0 | 16.5 | |
| Oklahoma | 75% | -10.0 | -8.5 | Big 12 showdown between two undefeated powerhouses is garnering lots of attention. However, with Longhorns’ starting QB Garrett Gilbert lost for the season with a shoulder injury, #11 Texas is forced to lean on a pair of inexperienced backups- underclassmen David Ash and Case McCoy- against one of the most dominating defenses in the nation, the 3rd ranked Sooners. Gilbert’s injury, coupled with the fact that 3 out of 4 bets are taking Oklahoma has forced the sportsbooks to give an extra 1.5 points to the underdog Longhorns. |
| Texas | 25% | 10.0 | 8.5 | |
| Boston College | 17% | 20.5 | 21.5 | After opening as big favorites, the public continues to hammer the 8th ranked and undefeated Tigers especially after the sportsbooks have adjusted their predictions to take 1.5 points away from the visiting 1-4 Eagles in this ACC showdown. |
| Clemson | 83% | -20.0 | -21.5 | |
| Connecticut | 19% | 19.5 | 20.0 | After crushing Bowling Green 55-10 last week, the 16th ranked Mountaineers have become a public favorite. Heading into their Big East matchup with the visiting 2-3 Huskies, nearly 8 out of 10 bets expect WV to blow out UCONN by nearly 3 TDs. |
| West Virginia | 81% | -19.5 | -20.0 | |
| Iowa | 70% | 4.0 | 2.0 | Expect a close game here, with Big Ten rivals Iowa (3-1) and Penn St. (4-1) taking it down to the wire. The Nittany Lions may very well get the W at home, however 7 of 10 bets don’t expect it to be by more than a field goal. |
| Penn State | 30% | -4.0 | -2.0 | |
| Pittsburgh | 77% | -6.5 | -9.5 | After their convincing win (44-17) over then undefeated, 16th ranked USF, the public is high on the Panthers (3-2) taking down the 3-1 Scarlet Knights on the road by at least one TD, especially after the sportsbooks have taken a big 3 points away from Rutgers, in yet another case of reverse-line movement. |
| Rutgers | 23% | 6.5 | 9.5 | |
| Louisville | 21% | 14.5 | 13.5 | Even with the sportsbooks giving the underdog Cardinals an extra point on the road, the public continues to hammer the 4-1 Tar Heels, with nearly 8 of 10 bets expecting UNC to win by more than a pair of TDs. |
| North Carolina | 79% | -14.5 | -13.5 | |
| Arizona State | 85% | -4.0 | -3.0 | One of the most lopsided games of the week right here, with nearly 9 out of 10 bets expecting the 22nd ranked Sun Devils (4-1) to take down the 2-2 Utes by a TD or more. |
| Utah | 15% | 4.0 | 3.0 | |
| Auburn | 60% | 10.0 | 9.0 | Pivotal SEC matchup between ranked teams makes for an exciting game. With the sportsbooks giving the visiting #15 Tigers an additional point, 6 out of 10 bets are confident in Auburn keeping it close, especially after the Tigers took down the 10th ranked Gamecocks on the road last week (16-10), while Arkansas barely edged Texas A&M (42-38). |
| Arkansas | 40% | -10.0 | -9.0 | |
| Maryland | 17% | 14.0 | 14.5 | The public is pounding the undefeated, 13th ranked Yellow Jackets and expect them to win big at home, even though unranked Maryland looked good crushing little known Towson 28-3 last week. |
| Georgia Tech | 83% | -14.0 | -14.5 | |
| Florida | 14% | 13.5 | 13.5 | Despite boasting a 4-1 record and 17th overall ranking, Florida enters the game as huge underdogs, especially after starting QB John Brantley was ruled out with an ankle injury. The line has remained static, although nearly 9 out of 10 bets rest on the top ranked, undefeated Tigers and their stifling D blowing out the Gators by at least two TDs. |
| LSU | 86% | -13.5 | -13.5 | |
| Ohio State | 24% | 11.0 | 9.5 | Even though the 14th ranked Cornhuskers got trounced by Wisconsin last week (48-17), the public remains confident that they will rebound to take down the Buckeyes, who will be without several starters due to suspension, by multiple scores at home. |
| Nebraska | 76% | -11.0 | -9.5 | |
| Texas A&M | 67% | -8.5 | -6.0 | Big matchup in the state of Texas. With the public pounding the 24th ranked Aggies on the road, the sportsbooks have given an extra 2.5 points to the undefeated Red Raiders. Even so, the public remains confident that the Aggies can defeat Texas Tech by nearly double digits. |
| Texas Tech | 33% | 8.5 | 6.0 |
* Betting Percentages reflect Sports Insights’ Spread Betting Trends Data
** Opening and Current Lines from Pinnacle
No Comments