2014 NFL Win Totals from LVH
On Saturday CG Technologies, formerly known as Cantor, released lines for every single NFL game for weeks 1 through 16. Then on Sunday, the LVH posted their NFL win totals for the upcoming 2014 season. With access to all of these point spreads we are easily able to project our own NFL season win totals for the entire league right now.
To do this, we first convert the point spread into a winning percentage for every game on the schedule. For example, a 3-point favorite has an expected winning percentage of 59.37%. Therefore, every time a team is favored by 3 points, we can credit them with .5937 wins. Conversely, a 3-point underdog would receive .4063 wins (1-.5937). For week 17 games, we projected the spread by using the previous game between the two teams and adjusting for home field advantage.
By extrapolating these decimals over the course of an entire season, we have developed the following Over/Under projections:
| Team | LVH Win Total | Over | Under | Games Favored | Projected Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 11 | -140 | +120 | 13 | 10.788 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11 | -120 | +100 | 14 | 10.518 |
| New England Patriots | 10.5 | -135 | +115 | 12 | 9.828 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | -120 | +100 | 11 | 10.128 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10 | -145 | +125 | 12 | 9.746 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 | -150 | +130 | 9 | 8.984 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9.5 | +130 | -150 | 10 | 9.027 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | -135 | +115 | 7 | 8.568 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9 | +115 | -135 | 8 | 8.57 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 | -120 | +100 | 7 | 8.507 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | -120 | even | 10 | 8.707 |
| Detroit Lions | 8 | -150 | +130 | 10 | 8.406 |
| Chicago Bears | 8 | -140 | +120 | 8 | 8.39 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8 | -130 | +110 | 7 | 8.019 |
| Carolina Panthers | 8 | -130 | +110 | 9 | 8.657 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8 | -120 | +100 | 7 | 8.366 |
| San Diego Chargers | 8 | -120 | +100 | 6 | 7.798 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8 | -110 | -110 | 8 | 8.302 |
| Miami Dolphins | 8 | +110 | -130 | 5 | 7.672 |
| Houston Texans | 7.5 | -145 | +125 | 7 | 8.467 |
| New York Giants | 7.5 | -135 | +115 | 8 | 7.873 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 7.5 | -120 | +100 | 7 | 7.293 |
| St. Louis Rams | 7.5 | -110 | -110 | 3 | 6.521 |
| Washington Redskins | 7.5 | +125 | -145 | 5 | 7.346 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7 | -130 | +110 | 4 | 6.934 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | -120 | +100 | 3 | 6.84 |
| New York Jets | 7 | -125 | +105 | 3 | 6.717 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 | -150 | +130 | 4 | 7.035 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6.5 | -130 | +110 | 6 | 6.637 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6 | +105 | -125 | 2 | 6.214 |
| Oakland Raiders | 5 | +130 | -150 | 0 | 4.826 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4.5 | -150 | +130 | 0 | 4.398 |
Comparing the projected wins to the given total and factoring in the juice on both sides, here are the five bets offering the most value:
Rams – Under 7.5 wins (-110)
Saints – Under 9.5 wins (+130)
Patriots – Under 10.5 wins (+115)
Bengals – Under 9 wins (+115)
Packers – Under 10 wins (+125)
Which teams do you think are offering value? Who are your sleepers for next season? Make sure to leave your thoughts and comments in the section below.
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Suchir Saraf
05/20/2014 at 4:05 pmQuestion: tell me if I am crazy but couldn’t you take jacksonville under 4.5 at +130 with 16 units and bet 1 unit jacksonville ml every game and lock in profits?
Thanks,
Suchir
Dave S
05/22/2014 at 12:50 pmSuchir,
To answer your question, let me give you a hypothetical example of how that might play out. The following list shows the spread for each Jacksonville game along with the correlating moneyline:
1. +11=+640
2. +9=+395
3. +6=+225
4. +10=+480
5. +6.5=+245
6. +7=+285
7. +2.5=+110
8. +4=+180
9. +11=+640
10. +10=+480
11. +12=+725
12. +5.5=+205
13. +4=+180
14. +10.5=+580
15. +3=+135
16. +10=+480
Let’s say that you bet $1600 on the under and then placed $100 on Jacksonville for each game. If Jacksonville goes 5-11 and wins the five games in which they are favored by less than 6, you would have the following moneylines: +110, +180, +205, +180, +135. Those five wins would lead to profits of $810. However, you would have to subtract one unit for each of the 11 losses so $810-$1100=-$290.
In that case you would actually lose the $1600 from betting the under AND the $290 from betting each game, resulting in a total loss of $1890. Of course, Jacksonville could also win some of the games in which they are larger moneyline dogs which would certainly change these results, but the bottom line is that this would not be an advisable strategy and you would certainly not be locking in any profits.