2014 World Cup Group Stage: Odds to Win
The World Cup is approaching the last group stage games and there have been plenty of surprises including England, Italy, and Spain being eliminated, and Costa Rica dominating a tough Group D.
The United States — who were placed in the so called “Group of Death” — were listed at +900 to win the group behind both Germany (-175) and Portugal (+270). Interestingly, the USA was listed ahead of Ghana despite being an underdog in their June 16th matchup which the US won 2-1.
The tables below compare the odds to win each group from before the World Cup to now at Sportsbook.com:
Updated 6/26/14 at 9:30 am
Group A
| Country | Sportsbook.com (Current) | Sportsbook.com (before World Cup) |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | Won group | -400 |
| Mexico | Finished 2nd | +600 |
| Croatia | Eliminated | +800 |
| Cameroon | Eliminated | +2500 |
Group B
| Country | Sportsbook.com (Current) | Sportsbook.com (before World Cup) |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | Won group | +225 |
| Chile | Finished 2nd | +450 |
| Spain | Eliminated | -140 |
| Australia | Eliminated | +3000 |
Group C
| Country | Sportsbook.com (Current) | Sportsbook.com (before World Cup) |
|---|---|---|
| Colombia | Won group | -140 |
| Greece | Finished 2nd | +800 |
| Ivory Coast | Eliminated | +350 |
| Japan | Eliminated | +450 |
Group D
| Country | Sportsbook.com (Current) | Sportsbook.com (before World Cup) |
|---|---|---|
| Costa Rica | Won group | +3000 |
| Uruguay | Finished 2nd | +160 |
| Italy | Eliminated | +160 |
| England | Eliminated | +200 |
Group E
| Country | Sportsbook.com (Current) | Sportsbook.com (before World Cup) |
|---|---|---|
| France | Won group | -145 |
| Switzerland | Finished 2nd | +280 |
| Ecuador | Eliminated | +400 |
| Honduras | Eliminated | +2000 |
Group F
| Country | Sportsbook.com (Current) | Sportsbook.com (before World Cup) |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Won group | -550 |
| Nigeria | Finished 2nd | +900 |
| Iran | Eliminated | +3000 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | Eliminated | +650 |
Group G
| Country | Sportsbook.com (Current) | Sportsbook.com (before World Cup) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Won group | -175 |
| USA | Finished 2nd | +900 |
| Portugal | Eliminated | +270 |
| Ghana | Eliminated | +1000 |
Group H
| Country | Sportsbook.com (Current) | Sportsbook.com (before World Cup) |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium | -5000 | -175 |
| Algeria | +2000 | +3000 |
| Russia | Cannot win group | +200 |
| Korea Republic | Cannot win group | +900 |
FiveThirtyEight.com recently published a great interactive tool calculating the odds of each country’s performance and has been updating their ratings after each game. Using their World Cup forecasting model (which uses ESPN’s Soccer Power Index), we applied the Kelly Criterion to compare their percentages on each team advancing from the group to the actual odds in the betting market. We then found 5 countries presenting >5% line value to win their group prior to the World Cup beginning on June 12:
Brazil -400 (Sportsbook.com)
Chile +600 (CRIS)
Costa Rica +4150 (CRIS)
Ecuador +400 (Sportsbook.com)
Germany -150 (CRIS)
Looking for more information about World Cup betting? We’ve also posted odds on each team to advance from their group, 2014 World Cup Odds and the United States World Cup Betting Odds. You can also check out our free World Cup odds page featuring betting percentages and real-time lines for every game of the tournament.
Have any questions? Please don’t hesitate to call us at 877-838-2853, e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com, or utilize our live chat to speak directly with a customer service representative.
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