2014 Fantasy Football: QB Preview
The NFL is back and that brings the welcome return of fantasy football. Over the past two seasons we’ve begun using oddsmakers projections to shed a new light on fantasy rankings, and the results have been categorically successful.
Last season we recommended taking Drew Brees ahead of the higher ranked Aaron Rodgers, and Brees outscored the Packers young gunslinger by 180 points in a standard Yahoo public league. We also projected a bounce back season for Lions QB Matthew Stafford, who finished last year as the 12th overall ranked fantasy player.
This season we decided to break down our fantasy preview into three parts, where we will separately examine quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers/tight ends. In our first installment, we will be telling you which QB’s to target and which to avoid.
The table below shows the odds for each player to lead the league in passing at Sportsbook.com and compares that to their 2013 passing yards and 2014 Consensus Position Ranking from Yahoo! Sports.
Update: On Wednesday, August 27th, Bovada posted an incredible number of player specific props including an over/under on passing yards for nearly every single starting quarterback in the NFL. While most of the yardage totals matched up with the odds to lead the league in passing, there were a few notable discrepancies including Aaron Rodgers, Nick Foles and Carson Palmer.
| Name | Yardage O/U (8/27) | Odds (7/26) | Yahoo Rankings | 2013 Passing Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 4900 | +300 | 1 | 5,477 |
| Drew Brees | 4900 | +400 | 2 | 5,162 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4700 | +700 | 4 | 4,650 |
| Matt Ryan | 4500 | +1400 | 5 | 4,515 |
| Tom Brady | 4400 | +1000 | 10 | 4,343 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4400 | +600 | 3 | 2,536 |
| Tony Romo | 4400 | +2500 | 11 | 3,828 |
| Nick Foles | 4200 | +6000 | 9 | 2,891 |
| Andrew Luck | 4200 | +1600 | 8 | 3,822 |
| Jay Cutler | 4000 | +2000 | T-12 | 2,621 |
| Carson Palmer | 4000 | +15000 | 21 | 4,274 |
| Eli Manning | 4000 | +2000 | 20 | 3,818 |
| Philip Rivers | 4000 | +2000 | T-14 | 4,478 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3900 | +15000 | 16 | 4,261 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3900 | +10000 | 22 | 3,913 |
| Andy Dalton | 3900 | +15000 | 17 | 4,293 |
| Joe Flacco | 3800 | +10000 | 23 | 3,912 |
| Robert Griffin III | 3700 | +7500 | 6 | 3,203 |
| Josh McCown | 3500 | +10000 | 19 | 1,829 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3500 | +20000 | T-14 | 3,197 |
| Cam Newton | 3500 | +20000 | 7 | 3,379 |
| Alex Smith | 3400 | +25000 | 24 | 3,313 |
| Russell Wilson | 3400 | +10000 | T-12 | 3,357 |
| Geno Smith | 3200 | +50000 | 26 | 3,046 |
| EJ Manuel | 3200 | +10000 | 29 | 1,972 |
| Blake Bortles | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A |
| Chad Henne | N/A | +50000 | N/A | 3,241 |
| Sam Bradford | N/A | +10000 | 25 | 1,687 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | N/A | +20000 | 28 | N/A |
| Jake Locker | N/A | +20000 | N/A | 1,256 |
| Matt Schaub | N/A | +15000 | N/A | 2,310 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | N/A | +10000 | N/A | 2,454 |
| Johnny Manziel | N/A | +20000 | 18 | N/A |
One player that immediately jumps off the page is Giants QB Eli Manning. The 2-time Super Bowl champion is tied for the 8th best odds to lead the league in passing yards (+2,000), has played in all 16 games in every season dating back to his rookie year, and has thrown for at least 3,800 yards in each of his past five seasons. Although he did throw a career-high 27 interceptions last season, a healthy Victor Cruz and the addition of first-round pick Odell Beckham should allow Manning to outperform his #20 ranking.
Another big name being undervalued by the fantasy community is Patriots QB Tom Brady. Although there has been much discussion of whether Brady is still an elite quarterback this off-season, it would seem that his decline is being vastly overstated. Despite playing with a hodgepodge of rookie receivers while star tight end Rob Gronkowski sat with an injury, Brady finished sixth in the league with 4,343 passing yards.
Brady currently has the fifth best odds of leading the league in passing yards (+1,000) but is ranked as just the tenth best fantasy quarterback. That means you can be one of the last teams to select a quarterback and still bring in an elite player.
Now some of the quarterbacks that would immediately appear to be overvalued are Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, however, because of their rushing ability they have additional value that is not considered by these odds. In fact, all four of those players finished last season ranked among the top five rushing QB’s in the NFL.
With that in mind, it would appear that Nick Foles is being vastly overvalued by the fantasy community. Foles has just the 11th best odds of leading the league in passing yards but is currently ranked as the 9th best fantasy QB. Considering that Foles is quite limited as a rusher, we could safely rank the following signal callers ahead of the Eagles young quarterback (In no particular order):
Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, and Robert Griffin III. It would be a toss-up between Eli Manning and Nick Foles, which means Foles should rank as either the 14th or 15th best fantasy quarterback.
Which quarterbacks will you be targeting? Do you agree or disagree with our selections? Make your voice heard in the comment section below.
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mike ks
06/21/2014 at 10:27 amIn a twelve team league how many QBs do you see going in first round?
Dave S
06/21/2014 at 10:49 amQuite frankly quarterback is so deep that I would be surprised to see any QB’s taken in the first round in a standard 12-team league. With Brady ranked as the #10 QB, I would be content being one of the last team’s to draft the position. Peyton Manning would be the only fringe first rounder in my mind.
Lenny Pappano
07/03/2014 at 11:59 pmGood stuff…. not sure Brady will rank as high as predicted here. Gronk’s health is still a question mark, and his receiving corps has no marquee names. Of course, Brady is still Brady! :)
Sportsbooks Reviews Site
07/26/2014 at 11:27 pmI agree. With most leagues being under 14 teams QB in the first round is not the best idea. The QB position is very deep. Of course everyone will probably want Peyton Manning, however, since he seems like he could throw for another 40-50 TD’s if need be. But I think a solid RB like Peterson would be the best overall number one. RB is light this year.
Drew
08/08/2014 at 10:29 amDave good insight. I do see and can see 1 or more of these 3 qb’s going 1st rd or early-early 2nd rd in 12 man leagues with 6pt td’s to answer the above question. Peyton, Brees, Rodgers. They can win you games! I do recommend that our fellow fantasy diehards check out http://www.statchat.com the site provides leagues with a national ranking and the entire league wins prizes. Take it easy.
ffslickpicks
08/22/2014 at 9:47 pmWhy is Foles limited as a rusher? He had 56 rushes last year in basically 11 games avg 4 ypc and had 3 TD’s. If playing all 16 games he should have well over 60 rushing attempts. Definately would not call that limited, and is an additonal 40-50 fantasy points.
Mr. Bensen
06/02/2015 at 3:23 pmHi David, fyi for 2015 fantasy football leagues hosted on espn, cbs, yahoo, and others will get a national ranking from StatChat.com.