Are Kentucky’s National Title Odds Being Overstated?

Are Kentucky’s National Title Odds Being Overstated?

In the next few weeks, we will be re-releasing our March Madness Bracket Simulator which will be located on our free College Basketball odds page. In the past year we have made a number of alterations to the simulator, which should lead to more accurate predictions come tournament time. However, before that time we wanted to determine which teams were being overrated by the national media and which teams were offering value to bettors.

One of our primary questions concerned the title aspirations of the Kentucky Wildcats. Perhaps one of the deepest teams in recent history, the Wildcats currently boast 10 players rated among Chad Ford’s top 100 NBA draft prospects. This depth has lead Kentucky to an undefeated record and many offshore sportsbooks have taken advantage by posting a number of interesting prop bets.

Sportsbook.com, a prominent (and very square) offshore sportsbook, currently lists Kentucky at -140 to win the National Championship and +250 to accomplish this feat with their undefeated record still intact. To determine whether coach Calipari’s team was being over-hyped, we consulted our bracket simulator which has been enhanced by adding more data sources, improving the accuracy of our ratings and tweaking the volatility of our bracket simulations.

Because each simulation includes a level of randomness to account for upsets and the inevitable emergence of Cinderella teams, single simulations aren’t necessarily the best predictor of future results. However, by running one million simulations we begin to see patterns as certain teams consistently advance deep into the tournament and are eventually crowned the champions.

The table below uses the current NCAAB Championship Futures from 5Dimes to produce an implied probability of winning the title. We then compared those implied probabilities with our own simulation results to determine which teams were offering value in the futures market, and which should be avoided like the plague.

It’s interesting to see that Virginia (+750) has an 11.76% implied probability of winning the National Championship; however, they were crowned the champs in 18.10% of our simulations. This 6.34% gap was by far the largest and indicates that bettors should consider shopping for the best line and betting the Cavaliers to win it all.

Other undervalued teams include:

1. Villanova (+4,000)
2. Arizona (+1,600)
3. Oklahoma (+7,500)
4. Butler (+75,000)
5. Northern Iowa (+17,500)
6. Xavier (+125,000)
7. Wichita State (+10,000)
8. Georgetown (+30,000)

While Virginia emerged as the most undervalued team in the nation, readers may be surprised to find out that our analysis pinpointed Kentucky as the most overvalued team. The Wildcats remain the only undefeated team in the country and are actually listed at -115 to win the National Title. Some sportsbooks have gone so far to offer odds on Kentucky versus the field — a practically unprecedented move. Our suggestion? Take the field.

Despite a 53.49% implied probability of winning the Big Dance, Kentucky was crowned victorious in just 27.20% of our bracket simulations — a figure that is only 9.1% higher than Virginia. Considering the lack of depth in the SEC this season, it seems safe to say that coach Calipari’s team hasn’t faced the type of adversity as many ACC, Big Ten or Big 12 schools.

This isn’t to say that Kentucky isn’t the best team in the nation — our bracket simulator clearly agrees with that opinion. The issue is that their competition is a lot closer than the mainstream media would have you believe.

We will continue to update this piece as the tournament draws near, but we want to know what you think. Can anybody knock off Kentucky? Will you be taking any College Basketball futures? Do you agree that Virginia is being overlooked nationally? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com.