2015 AL and NL MVP Odds
The 2015 MLB season is well underway and we’ve been updating the blog with a number of articles including Win Totals, Futures, Divisional Odds, Season Props and most recently Cy Young Odds
Last season Angels OF Mike Trout finally broke through and ended Miguel Cabrera’s bid for three consecutive AL MVP awards while Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw became the first pitcher to win the award since Justin Verlander in 2011.
The table below, which utilized archived futures from SportsOddsHistory.com, displays the past five MVP winners in each league along with their preseason odds.
| Year | AL Winner | Odds | NL Winner | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Mike Trout | +500 | Clayton Kershaw | +2000 |
| 2013 | Miguel Cabrera | +700 | Andrew McCutchen | +1500 |
| 2012 | Miguel Cabrera | +900 | Buster Posey | +2500 |
| 2011 | Justin Verlander | +7500 | Ryan Braun | +800 |
| 2010 | Josh Hamilton | +10000 | Joey Votto | +5000 |
This season Mike Trout is considered a strong favorite to repeat in the American League and it’s easy to see why. Still only 23-years old, Trout’s projected WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is roughly 75% higher than his closest competitor (Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera) according to the ZiPS projections available on FanGraphs.
Although most of the top competitors come as no surprise, there is one notable surprise listed within the top 15: Red Sox OF Mookie Betts. The 22-year old batted .291 with 5 home runs and 7 stolen bases in just 213 at bats this season and is expected to be in an outfield platoon along with Shane Victorino and Rusney Castillo.
Despite this small sample size and potential obstacles to playing time, BetOnline lists Betts’ odds of winning the AL MVP at +3300. These odds are better than proven teammates like David Ortiz (+6600) and Pablo Sandoval (+8000) but just behind the newly acquired Hanley Ramirez (+1600).
The table below compares the full list of MVP candidates at square books BetOnline, Bovada and TopBet.
AL MVP
NL MVP
While Trout is the obvious favorite in the American League, there are a number of quality candidates in the National League. Although Andrew McCutchen is the favorite (+400), players like Giancarlo Stanton (+450), Paul Goldschmidt (+800) and Yasiel Puig (+1000) are right on his heels.
BetOnline also allows you to bet “Any Pitcher” to win the NL MVP at +550. The most likely pitcher to win this award is reining MVP Clayton Kershaw, but would also include the likes of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Madison Bumgarner.
If you’re looking for a sleeper, Brewers OF Carlos Gomez appears to be offering solid value at +3300. Milwaukee is a fringe playoff team at best, but if they sneak into the postseason it will likely be based in large part on the play of their 29-year old. Over the past two seasons Gomez has been extremely productive with a combined .284 average along with 47 home runs, 146 RBI and 74 stolen bases.
Admittedly it’s unlikely that the Brewers will reach the playoffs, especially as they attempt to come out of a loaded NL Central. However, the fact other players at +3300 include rookies Mookie Betts and Kris Bryant indicates that Gomez is being undervalued.
It’s also fascinating to see that TopBet is offering the option to take “the field” at +200. This bet would encompass a number of impact players including Gomez, Starling Marte, Ryan Braun, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and many others.
7/7/15 Update:
Bovada recently updated their MVP odds and, although Mike Trout remains the favorite in the American League, there has been a lot of shakeup. Nationals OF Bryce Harper, who is currently batting .344 with 25 home runs and 60 RBI, is a massive favorite in the National League at -125. Before the start of the season, Harper had the eighth-best odds at +1600.
On the American League side, Indians 2B Jason Kipnis has clearly been the year’s most surprising breakthrough player. Although the Indians are currently in 4th place in the AL West, the 28-year old lefty is batting .340 with 6 home runs and 10 stolen bases and is listed at -400 to win the AL MVP. Based on the teams subpar performance, this price seems significantly over-inflated.
Since the start of the season, other key line moves include:
- Todd Frazier: N/A to +600
- Manny Machado: N/A to +800
- Prince Fielder: +10000 to +1600
- Nelson Cruz: +6600 to +1600
- Andrew McCutchen: +550 to +3300
8/11/15 Update:
Although Bovada does not currently have MVP odds posted, BetOnline recently updated their odds with Mike Trout (-175) and Bryce Harper (-200) increasing their lead over the competition. It’s also interesting to see that Josh Donaldson has skyrocketed from +900 to +200 following the Blue Jays acquisitions of David Price and Troy Tulowitzki along with the teams subsequent winning streak.
In the National League, it’s interesting to see the pitching trio of Max Scherzer (+2500), Clayton Kershaw (+2500) and Zack Greinke (+3300) listed as MVP candidates. It’s especially interesting so see Greinke with the longest odds when his ERA is tops in the National League by nearly half of a run.
8/29/15 Update
In the past three weeks, Bryce Harper (.334 BA, 31 HR, 76 RBI) has continued to swing a hot bat and has seen his odds of winning the NL MVP improve from -200 to -500. This is also interesting because during this time, the Nationals have lost their spot atop the NL East and now trail the Mets by 6.5-games.
If the playoffs started today, the Pirates and Cubs would be the two wild card teams and Washington would be on the outside looking in. Harper clearly has the best statistics of any National League player, but it will be interesting to see if he’s adversely affected by the Nats late season collapse.
In the American League, Josh Donaldson (.296, 35 HR, 105 RBI) has moved from +200 to -190 and has surpassed Mike Trout (.294, 33 HR, 73 RBI) as the MVP favorite. The Blue Jays have gone 19-4 over their past 23 games and now hold a 1.5-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. Meanwhile, the Angels have struggled recently and are currently just 2-games over .500.
Based on Donaldson’s insane statline and Toronto’s impressive winning streak, it would appear that the Blue Jays slugger should be an even larger favorite than -190. Donaldson’s WAR of 7.1 trails only Bryce Harper (7.5) and his defensive rating of 8.4 trails only Adrian Beltre among AL third basemen.
Baseball season is in full swing, so make sure to bookmark our free MLB odds page for the latest odds, trends, injuries, lineups and more.
Tom
08/24/2015 at 2:16 pmjosh Donaldson and Anthony rizzo
Zach grenkie and Felix Hernandez
Mike
09/06/2015 at 10:13 amJosh Donaldson & Paul Goldschmidt
Zach Greinke & Dallas Keuchel.
Xhris
09/06/2015 at 8:47 pmDonaldson should be a lock. No one else has been nearly as consistent and productive in the AL. You also have to factor in his stellar defensive ability and the way he creates runs and hits by pushing out 100% every play and challenging defenders.
The NL is trickier as a lot depends on who makes it to the playoffs, which, unfortunately, is the main reason Goldy most likely will not take it. In my opinion, he deserves it, but has no support around him in the lineup, which is also scary because imagine what he could do if he did, and unless the DBacks win the rest of their games, he has no chance.
I think if the Nats continue their hot streak at the end here with a healthy Zimmerman and push for playoffs, then Harper is a lock. He has great numbers but was cold for a chucks of the year because, like Goldschmidt, had no support in the lineup and was walked…a lot, and still is to some extent. Hell, he was walked 4 times without swinging once and scored every time a few days ago.
My only other contender would be either Rizzo or Arrieta. Both of these guys have given the Cubs a huge chance to win it all and they have great numbers and both have been very consistent in being near the top in their respective positions. If the Giants hadnt suffered from such major injuries and an average pitching staff this year, I am sure I would be talking about Posey and Crawford too, but that is out of the question.
So if I had to pick it would be Donaldson & Harper for MVP and Keuchel & Arrieta for CY
Vincent
09/09/2015 at 12:04 amIs it time yet to include Yoenis Cespedes in the NL MVP conversation? The difference he’s made to the Mets in the brief time since the trade cannot be discounted! He’d be my vote…
David Solar
09/09/2015 at 8:41 amBased on his full season statistics, Cespedes has absolutely been one of the best players in baseball and has clearly been the catalyst in New York’s recent hot streak. That said, he has only played 35 games for the Mets (.307 BA, 13 HR, 34 RBI). Players who are traded to a different league at the trade deadline simply don’t have much opportunity to win the MVP.