2015 Women’s World Cup Odds vs. FiveThirtyEight
On Tuesday morning fivethirtyeight.com, a website focusing on statistical analysis, released their predictions for the 2015 Women’s World Cup. You can learn more about how their model works by visiting their site, but I wanted to interpret that data into the betting terms that we are familiar with.
Below is a table that displays FiveThirtyEight’s predictions along with a converted moneyline. We then added the Women’s World Cup Odds from both a sharp sportsbook (Pinnacle) and a square book (Bovada).
| Team | 538 Win % | Implied Odds | Pinnacle Odds | Bovada Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 28% | +257 | +264 | +225 |
| Germany | 27% | +270 | +318 | +333 |
| Japan | 10% | +900 | +760 | +700 |
| France | 8% | +1150 | +638 | +750 |
| Canada | 7% | +1329 | +1050 | +1000 |
| Brazil | 6% | +1567 | +850 | +700 |
| Sweden | 5% | +1900 | +1600 | +1000 |
| England | 2% | +4900 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Norway | 2% | +4900 | +3000 | +2500 |
| Australia | 2% | +4900 | +5000 | +4000 |
FiveThirtyEight and Bovada have listed predictions and odds for group play as well. You can see the predicted percentage, implied odds, and given odds at Bovada in the individual tables below.
Group A
| Team | 538 Win % | Implied Odds | Bovada Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 59.2% | -145 | -275 |
| Netherlands | 18.1% | +452 | +550 |
| China | 14.5% | +590 | +550 |
| New Zealand | 8.2% | +1120 | +1200 |
Group B
| Team | 538 Win % | Implied Odds | Bovada Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 83.4% | -502 | -1000 |
| Norway | 15.9% | +529 | +600 |
| Ivory Coast | 0.6% | +16567 | +3300 |
| Thailand | 0.1% | +99900 | +6600 |
Group C
| Team | 538 Win % | Implied Odds | Bovada Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 79.3% | -383 | -800 |
| Switzerland | 14.5% | +590 | +500 |
| Cameroon | 6.1% | +1539 | +5000 |
| Ecuador | 0.1% | +99900 | +3300 |
Group D
| Team | 538 Win % | Implied Odds | Bovada Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 64.7% | -183 | -300 |
| Sweden | 21.2% | +372 | +300 |
| Australia | 9.7% | +931 | +1000 |
| Nigeria | 4.4% | +2173 | +2800 |
Group E
| Team | 538 Win % | Implied Odds | Bovada Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 70.0% | -233 | -400 |
| Spain | 15.0% | +567 | +450 |
| South Korea | 13.8% | +625 | +750 |
| Costa Rica | 1.2% | +8233 | +3300 |
Group F
| Team | 538 Win % | Implied Odds | Bovada Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 60.2% | -151 | -150 |
| England | 31.6% | +216 | +150 |
| Mexico | 5.5% | +1718 | +1200 |
| Colombia | 2.8% | +3471 | +1600 |
Based on the discrepancies between FiveThirtyEight’s implied odds and the current odds at Bovada, these were the four best group winner bets based on value:
- Group C: Cameroon (+5,000)
- Group A: Netherlands (+550)
- Group E: South Korea (+750)
- Group B: Norway (+600)
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