2015 NFL MVP Odds
Editors Note: This article was originally published on July 23rd
It’s been more than five months since Malcolm Butler’s goal-line interception gave the New England Patriots a narrow victory over the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX, but the long wait for NFL fans is almost over. On August 9th, the Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Minnesota Vikings in the NFL Hall of Fame Game as the preseason officially gets underway.
Although we’ve previously written about Super Bowl Futures, Win Totals, Playoff Odds and many other interesting betting opportunities, it’s only recently that sportsbooks have begun posting player specific prop bets. BetOnline became the first offshore oddsmaker to post props involving the league leaders in passing, rushing and receiving. Then earlier this week, the much sharper 5Dimes sportsbook posted something a little more interesting.
The table below compares the current NFL MVP odds at 5Dimes and BetOnline. It will be updated as more information becomes available.
| Player | Sportsbook (10/6) | BetOnline (7/22) | 5Dimes (7/18) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | -120 | +400 | +300 |
| Tom Brady | +200 | N/A | N/A |
| Adrian Peterson | +2000 | +1000 | +800 |
| Peyton Manning | +2500 | +750 | +500 |
| Carson Palmer | +2500 | N/A | N/A |
| Cam Newton | +2500 | +2000 | +1500 |
| Rob Gronkowski | +3000 | +2500 | N/A |
| Matt Ryan | +3000 | +1600 | +1500 |
| Andy Dalton | +3500 | N/A | +5000 |
| Russell Wilson | +4000 | +1000 | +800 |
| Andrew Luck | +5000 | +300 | +500 |
| Philip Rivers | +5000 | +2500 | +2000 |
| Antonio Brown | +5000 | +1600 | +1500 |
| A.J. Green | +5000 | +3300 | N/A |
| Julio Jones | +5000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| LeVeon Bell | +5000 | +2500 | N/A |
| Marshawn Lynch | +10000 | +1600 | +1000 |
| Marcus Mariota | +10000 | N/A | N/A |
| Odell Beckham Jr | +10000 | +1600 | +2000 |
| LeSean McCoy | N/A | +3300 | N/A |
| Dez Bryant | N/A | +2500 | +1500 |
| Drew Brees | N/A | +1600 | +800 |
| Eli Manning | N/A | +1600 | +2500 |
| Ryan Tannehill | N/A | +2500 | +2500 |
| Demaryius Thomas | N/A | +2500 | +3000 |
| Arian Foster | N/A | +1600 | N/A |
| Matthew Stafford | N/A | +2500 | +1500 |
| Joe Flacco | N/A | +2500 | +1200 |
| Matt Forte | N/A | +3300 | +3000 |
| Tony Romo | N/A | +1600 | +1500 |
| J.J. Watt | N/A | +1600 | +800 |
| Jimmy Graham | N/A | +3300 | N/A |
| Eddie Lacy | N/A | +3300 | +1500 |
| Jordy Nelson | N/A | +3300 | N/A |
| C.J. Anderson | N/A | +4000 | N/A |
| Colin Kaepernick | N/A | +5000 | +2500 |
| Sam Bradford | N/A | +5000 | +2000 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | N/A | +5000 | +2500 |
| Jameis Winston | N/A | +5000 | N/A |
| Calvin Johnson | N/A | +2000 | +1500 |
| DeMarco Murray | N/A | +1600 | +1500 |
| Nick Foles | N/A | N/A | +3000 |
| Jamaal Charles | N/A | +1400 | +1500 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | N/A | +1000 | +1000 |
| Alex Smith | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (+300) is the early favorite to repeat at 5Dimes, but Andrew Luck (+300) is the current front runner at BetOnline. This is one of many discrepancies between the two books including: Drew Brees (+1600 vs. +800), J.J. Watt (+1600 vs. +800), Arian Foster (+1600 vs. N/A) and Eddie Lacy (+3300 vs. +1500). This highlights the importance of shopping for the best line.
There is one glaring omission on this list; Patriots QB Tom Brady. The 2-time MVP and 4-time Super Bowl Champion has been suspended four games by the league, but it remains how many games (if any) the Pats superstar will miss. The fact that his odds have not been posted indicates one of two things:
- Oddsmakers don’t believe Brady can win the MVP award if he’s sidelined for a quarter of the season.
- Oddsmakers don’t know how to properly price Brady without exact knowledge of how many games he will miss.
If you’re debating taking a long shot to win this award, you may want to re-consider. Outside Adrian Peterson’s improbable 2000-year season back in 2012, the MVP winner has almost always been a front running quarterback. That precedent would seem to bode well for Rogers chances to repeat and would also indicate potential value on Andrew Luck (+500 at 5Dimes), Peyton Manning (+750 at BetOnline), Drew Brees (+1600 at BetOnline) and Russell Wilson (+1000 at BetOnline).
The table below, which uses archived futures from SportsOddsHistory, displays the past MVP winners along with their preseason odds.
| Year | Player | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | +600 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | +600 |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | +4000 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | +400 |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | +800 |
| 2009 | Peyton Manning | +500 |
It’s interesting to note that since the award was first handed out in 1957, more quarterbacks have won this award (38) than all other positions combined (21). Included in those other winners are 18 running backs, 1 defensive tackle (Alan Page in 1971), one place kicker (Mark Moseley in 1982) and one linebacker (Lawrence Taylor in 1986).
10/6/15 Update
Sportsbook.com, which has a questionable reputation regarding customer pay outs, became the first prominent oddsmakers to post updated MVP odds for the 2015 NFL season.
In four games this season, Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 995 yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions while guiding Green Bay to a 4-0 record. Prior to the start of the season, Rodgers had the best odds (+300) at 5Dimes and the second best odds (+400) at BetOnline.
Before the season, Andrew Luck was viewed as Rodgers main competition but that is no longer the case. The Stanford alum has thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (5), and missed the Colts Week 4 game due to a shoulder injury. These performance woes coupled with the teams struggles have caused Luck’s MVP odds to drop to 50/1.
The biggest riser? That would be Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. Oddsmakers didn’t even bother posting MVP odds for Brady after it was announced that he would be suspended four games as part of Deflategate. In just three games, Brady has already passed for 1,112 yards with 9 touchdowns and no interceptions.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
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