2016 March Madness: NCAAB Futures Offering Value
Last month when we first released our bracket simulator, we identified several teams whose odds of winning the national championship were being undervalued. By combining information from our historical database along with data from well-respected basketball sources including ESPN, Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin, we were able to create our own title probabilities and check for discrepancies in the futures market.
The 68-team field for the 2016 NCAA Tournament was set last night, and we immediately ran one million simulations to determine the probability for each team to win the national championship. Although most sportsbooks still haven’t posted updated college basketball futures, early on Monday morning The Greek became the first prominent offshore book to post title odds.
We should note that the sum of these implied probabilities is 160%, which equates to an extremely jacked up -160 juice. Other sportsbooks should begin posting their own futures shortly, and bettors should be sure to shop for the best line before placing any wagers.
| School | Greek (3/14) | Implied Probability | Bracket Simulator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | +3000 | 3.23% | 5.20% | 1.612 |
| Texas A&M | +4000 | 2.44% | 3.30% | 1.353 |
| Virginia | +1200 | 7.69% | 10.40% | 1.352 |
| Villanova | +1200 | 7.69% | 7.60% | 0.988 |
| Oklahoma | +1500 | 6.25% | 6.00% | 0.96 |
| Xavier | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.00% | 0.78 |
| Kansas | +500 | 16.67% | 12.60% | 0.756 |
| Yale | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.10% | 0.751 |
| Michigan St | +500 | 16.67% | 12.20% | 0.732 |
| Iowa | +6500 | 1.52% | 1.10% | 0.726 |
| Miami FL | +3000 | 3.23% | 2.20% | 0.682 |
| North Carolina | +500 | 16.67% | 11.30% | 0.678 |
| Purdue | +3000 | 3.23% | 2.10% | 0.651 |
| Indiana | +3500 | 2.78% | 1.80% | 0.648 |
| Iowa St | +4000 | 2.44% | 1.50% | 0.615 |
| Oregon | +1500 | 6.25% | 3.80% | 0.608 |
| Gonzaga | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.60% | 0.606 |
| Arizona | +3500 | 2.78% | 1.40% | 0.504 |
| Stephen F Austin | +50000 | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.501 |
| Baylor | +5000 | 1.96% | 0.90% | 0.459 |
| Duke | +1800 | 5.26% | 2.30% | 0.437 |
| Maryland | +3000 | 3.23% | 1.40% | 0.434 |
| Cincinnati | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.40% | 0.404 |
| St Josephs | +20000 | 0.50% | 0.20% | 0.402 |
| UConn | +5000 | 1.96% | 0.60% | 0.306 |
| Butler | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.20% | 0.302 |
| Texas Tech | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.10% | 0.301 |
| Kentucky | +800 | 11.11% | 3.20% | 0.288 |
| Texas | +5000 | 1.96% | 0.50% | 0.255 |
| Seton Hall | +5000 | 1.96% | 0.50% | 0.255 |
| Utah | +3000 | 3.23% | 0.70% | 0.217 |
| Wichita St | +5000 | 1.96% | 0.40% | 0.204 |
| Vanderbilt | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.20% | 0.202 |
| Colorado | +20000 | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.201 |
| Pittsburgh | +20000 | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.201 |
| California | +1500 | 6.25% | 1.00% | 0.16 |
| Wisconsin | +6500 | 1.52% | 0.20% | 0.132 |
| Notre Dame | +5000 | 1.96% | 0.20% | 0.102 |
| Dayton | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.10% | 0.101 |
| Providence | +5000 | 1.96% | 0.10% | 0.051 |
| Field | +5000 | 1.96% | N/A | N/A |
| Oregon St | +15000 | 0.66% | <0.1% | N/A |
| Michigan | +15000 | 0.66% | <0.1% | N/A |
| Syracuse | +20000 | 0.50% | <0.1% | N/A |
| USC | +20000 | 0.50% | <0.1% | N/A |
| VCU | +20000 | 0.50% | <0.1% | N/A |
| Northern Iowa | +35000 | 0.28% | <0.1% | N/A |
| Temple | +50000 | 0.20% | <0.1% | N/A |
| Hawaii | +50000 | 0.20% | <0.1% | N/A |
| Chattanooga | +50000 | 0.20% | <0.1% | N/A |
| Fresno St | +50000 | 0.20% | <0.1% | N/A |
| Tulsa | +50000 | 0.20% | <0.1% | N/A |
| Green Bay | +75000 | 0.13% | <0.1% | N/A |
Kansas, Michigan State and North Carolina (+500) are the co-favorites to win the championship, which seems to validate the public sentiment that Michigan State was more deserving of the final number one seed than Oregon. It’s particularly interesting to see that the Ducks (+1500) are tied for the seventh-best odds of winning the title, while our bracket simulator indicates that they should be even lower at +2500.
Despite landing a four-seed, Kentucky (+800) has the fourth best odds of winning the national championship. Oddsmakers understand that Kentucky is one of the most popular teams among casual bettors, and their lines are artificially inflated to account for the inevitable influx of public money. The bracket simulator indicates that John Calipari’s squad should be listed at closer to +3000.
Our analysis indicates that there are only three teams offering value — Texas A&M (+4000), Virginia (+1200) and West Virginia (+3000). According to our simulations the Aggies should be +2930, the Cavaliers should be +861 and West Virginia should be +1823. In our previous article, we had pinpointed value on Virginia (+1800) and West Virginia (+2300). One month ago Texas A&M was still listed at +4000, but they benefited from a recent hot streak and a relatively weak region.
This season our college basketball Best Bets have gone 167-133 ATS with +20.6 units won. These picks are exclusively available to our Sportsbook Insider Pro subscribers, so make sure to sign up for the extended 7-day trial. Schedule a one-on-one demo and we’ll tack on four additional days for free!
Bettors should also be sure to visit our free college basketball odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@SportsInsights.com
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