2016 College Football: Week 7 Opening Line Report
We’re now through Week 6 of the College Football season where Colorado is the only team to cover every single game, while Oregon and FAU have yet to cover a game. Notre Dame (9.5), Marshall (8.5), Oregon (8.5), and Northern Illinois (8.5) have already gone Under their Season Win Totals, while Wyoming (3.5) and North Texas (2.5) have already gone Over.
Jumping ahead to Week 7, below shows lookahead lines over the summer from Golden Nugget, as well as BetOnline openers and current odds. I’ve also included how the sharp books and entire market have reacted in each write-up:
| Matchup | October 10 (BetOnline) | October 9 (BetOnline) | July 8 (Golden Nugget) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St at BYU | BYU -7 | BYU -4 | BYU PK |
| Stanford at Notre Dame | ND -2.5 | ND PK | ND -3 |
| Alabama at Tennessee | Bama -12 | Bama -9 | Tenn -1 |
| USC at Arizona | USC -7.5 | USC -7 | USC -3 |
| Ohio St at Wisconsin | Ohio St -10.5 | Ohio St -9.5 | Ohio St -6 |
| Ole Miss at Arkansas | Ole Miss -7.5 | Ole Miss -6.5 | Ole Miss -1 |
NC State at Clemson (12 pm ET Saturday)
This game has turned into a crucial one after NC State defeated Notre Dame last week, and the opening lines are particularly interesting: CRIS opened Clemson -16, BetOnline opened Clemson -16.5, Pinnacle opened Clemson -17, and 5Dimes opened Clemson -17.5. Right now most of the market sits at Clemson -16.5 and the Tigers are getting more than half the spread tickets, but books feel comfortable keeping them below the key number of -17. Clemson has looked impressive in ACC play and this number will likely tick back up to -17 eventually.
Alabama at Tennessee (3:30 pm ET Saturday)
In the best matchup and most bet game of the weekend, Bama opened -9 at BetOnline but were quickly bet up to double-digits. Bama now sits at -12 at BetOnline and have even reached -12.5 at sharp books like 5Dimes. Unlike last week at Arkansas, bettors are not shying away from the Crimson Tide as they’re getting roughly 3/4 of spread tickets and spread money so far.
Pinnacle even lists Alabama as high as -13 as the Vols could once again be without RB Jalen Hurd. Early bettors definitely got a great number on Bama -9 as I don’t see this coming back down below double-digits again. If you got Bama +1 over the summer, you could potentially take Tennessee if they reach +14 and get a very nice middling opportunity.
Stanford at Notre Dame (7:30 pm ET Saturday)
Two straight blowouts by Stanford, and another loss by Notre Dame to NC State last week has really taken the sting out of this matchup. However, it will still be a widely-bet game based on school recognition and BetOnline opened this game at a pick ’em while 5Dimes opened Stanford -2. However, the market quickly reacted and bet Notre Dame (75% of early tickets) to -2.5 where they’ll currently at. Both teams have been disappointing but if the line reaches ND -3, bettors will likely start taking the underdog.
Ohio St at Wisconsin (8:00 pm ET Saturday)
BetOnline opened Ohio State -9.5 but was bet up to -10.5 within an hour, where the line currently sits around the market. Over the summer Ohio State was listed -6 and they’ve been beyond impressive so far this year, which has caused for further line adjustment. Spread tickets are roughly split so far and books will probably need to keep the line above Ohio State -10 in order to attracted some Wisconsin cash. I could see this line moving up to -11 or -11.5, and would be shocked if it came down below double-digits by close.
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