2016 College Football: What Should Bettors Know For Week 8?
In this weekly column, we will summarize key events from the past week, provide bettors with information needed to make smarter college football bets, and help readers determine which teams are offering value.
Quick Hits
Our Week 8 opening line report is a useful resource to see how lines have shifted throughout the week. (Week 8 Opening Line Report)
What are the Week 8 line moves that matter? Here are three games that bettors should know about. (Week 8 Line Moves That Matter)
The Oregon/Cal total for tonight is currently at 88.5, highest total we've ever tracked in our database (regular season + playoffs).
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) October 21, 2016
Christian McCaffrey moved from +6600 to +15000 to win the Heisman, but he wasn’t the only player whose odds dropped significantly. (2016 Heisman Odds)
Michigan (+900) continues to trend upwards in the National Championship conversation. Which teams have separated themselves from the rest? (2016-17 National Championship Odds)
Bama is receiving just 36% of tickets but 80% of the money @WilliamHillUS, moving from -16.5 to -18.5 vs. Texas A&M.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) October 21, 2016
Why is there value on Auburn as a contrarian favorite? (Game of the Week: Auburn vs. Arkansas)
Dan and David talk about NCAAF value plays and futures in this week’s Smarter Bets podcast. (Episode 11 of Smarter Bets)
Key Injuries
Leonard Fournette (Ankle), is upgraded to probable Saturday (10/22) vs. Mississippi
Wes Lunt (Back), is questionable Saturday (10/22) at Michigan
Christian McCaffrey (Leg), is questionable Saturday (10/22) vs. Colorado
Thomas Woodson (Shoulder), is questionable Saturday (10/22) at Ball State
Nick Wilson (Undisclosed), is out indefinitely
Click here for all NCAAF injuries
Key Line Movement
Indiana at Northwestern, 12:00 PM Eastern: The past three games have been far from a cakewalk for the Indiana Hoosiers (3-3). Amidst the toughest part of their schedule, the Hoosiers faced three consecutive ranked conference opponents and almost squeezed out an upset last week over #8 Nebraska.
Kevin Wilson must feel grateful that his team is .500 after this difficult span. However, Indiana cannot become complacent because their Week 8 opponent, Northwestern (3-3), is no slouch. At the market-setting sportsbook Pinnacle, the Wildcats opened as 3-point favorites and are receiving 58% of spread bets at the time of publication.
The screenshot below displays the spread betting breakdown from our seven contributing sportsbooks.
In this mix of sharp and square books, observers will notice an obvious, yet important trend. The sharper books (5Dimes and BetDSI) are receiving more tickets on Indiana, while the square books (Sportsbook.com and Sports Interaction) are getting more tickets on Northwestern. Our money percentages also indicate that 59% of spread dollars are on the Hoosiers, but that doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story.
The graph below illustrates Indiana’s line movement and shifts in public betting trends throughout the week.
Despite opening as underdogs, the Hoosiers have received an overwhelming amount of spread money. This one-sided betting initially dropped the line from +3 to +2.5. Shortly after that initial drop, a steam move triggered at Pinnacle sent the line down to IND +1.5. Since that time, heavy public action on Northwestern has driven the line back up to IND +2.
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