How to Bet Super Bowl 51 Futures
At Sports Insights, we constantly preach the importance of having accounts at multiple sportsbooks. This allows bettors to shop for the best line, and ensure that you’re getting the best possible number before placing a wager. Bettors should ideally have access to at least three sportsbooks: one sharp (like Bookmaker or Heritage), one square (like Bovada or Sports Interaction) and one reduced juice (like Pinnacle or 5Dimes). That’s true whether you’re betting a single game or placing a future bet.
The table below displays the current Super Bowl 51 futures. As you can see, the odds vary significantly depending on the sportsbook.
| Team | 5Dimes | BetOnline | Bovada | Bookmaker | Heritage | Pinnacle | SIA | Westgate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +126 | +135 | +150 | +131 | +130 | +132 | +130 | +125 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +263 | +250 | +260 | +251 | +265 | +260 | +260 | +250 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +470 | +450 | +450 | +444 | +475 | +470 | +400 | +450 |
| Green Bay Packers | +506 | +400 | +375 | +466 | +500 | +515 | +350 | +400 |
It’s interesting to note that every sportsbook lists the Patriots with the best odds and the Falcons with the second-best odds, however, there’s some disagreement about whether the Packers or Steelers should have the third-best title odds. Sharper books (like CRIS and Pinnacle) have Pittsburgh with shorter odds while square books (like BetOnline, Bovada, and Sports Interaction) have Green Bay with shorter odds.
That’s somewhat peculiar since Pittsburgh (+205 at New England) is a larger underdog than Green Bay (+178 at Atlanta) this weekend. Additionally, the early lookahead line indicates the Steelers would be a small underdog against the Packers.
#SB51 moneylines
GB (-120) vs. PIT (+100)
GB (+150) vs. NE (-170)
ATL (+105) vs. PIT (-125)
ATL (+160) vs. NE (-185)— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) January 19, 2017
These odds are an imperfect measurement, and the actual Super Bowl 51 line will likely be impacted by the outcome of Sunday’s conference championship games. Sportsbooks often shade their lines to account for public perception, so if one team wins in impressive fashion, the line may be shaded to account for an influx of public money. It’s also important to realize that these lookahead lines at 5Dimes have fairly low limits. In general, 5Dimes will wait until market-setting sportsbooks like CRIS and Pinnacle post their lines before opening.
It’s also important to realize that these lookahead lines at 5Dimes have fairly low limits. In general, 5Dimes will wait to increase their limits until market-setting sportsbooks like CRIS and Pinnacle post their lines. For both conference championship games, 5Dimes posted their opening odds well ahead of CRIS and Pinnacle to get a feel for the market.
In these lookahead lines, 5Dimes has been consistently undervaluing the Falcons. Although Atlanta was listed as a 3-point favorite against Seattle on the lookahead line, they ultimately closed as 6.5-point favorites. Similarly, the lookahead line listed Atlanta as 3-point favorites against Green Bay, but they’re currently listed as 5-point favorites. In other words, there’s no way that the Falcons should be listed as an underdog against the Steelers on neutral turf.
The list below displays my hypothetical Super Bowl 51 spreads and moneylines:
- New England Patriots (-1, -120) vs. Atlanta Falcons (+1, +100)
- New England Patriots (-3.5, -175) vs. Green Bay Packers (+3.5, +155)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (PK, -110) vs. Green Bay Packers (PK, -110)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, +120) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, -140)
While many bettors will likely be taking Super Bowl futures this week, I wanted to determine whether it would be advisable to place consecutive moneyline wagers. Rather than placing one bet, bettors could instead roll over the moneyline and take their favorite team to win straight up. But is that a profitable strategy?
Using my own Super Bowl 51 projections, I was able to determine how much money bettors would make by rolling over the moneyline rather than placing a future bet. For the sake of continuity, we have compared the current moneyline and futures at 5Dimes.
1. New England Patriots
Option 1: The Patriots are -245 moneyline favorites against the Steelers, meaning a $100 wager would yield a $40.82 profit if they win. Based on my Super Bowl 51 projections, the Patriots would be -120 moneyline favorites against the Falcons and -175 moneyline favorites against the Packers. Rolling over that initial $140.82 wager would yield $258.17 if they defeat Atlanta and $221.29 in a matchup with Green Bay.
Option 2: Wagering $100 on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl at +126 would yield a profit of $126 and a total return of $226. That means it would be more profitable to roll over the moneyline if they were to play Atlanta, but it would be more profitable to take their future price if they play Green Bay. However, this is not a 50/50 proposition. Based on the current moneyline there’s a 65.1% implied probability that Atlanta will beat Green Bay.
That means there’s a 65.1% probability that moneyline bettors would make $258.17 and a 34.9% probability they would make $221.29. That’s works out to an expected value of $245.30. In other words, it’s smarter to take the New England future price if your sportsbook is offering +146 or better and right now Bovada is the only sportsbook with such long odds.
2. Atlanta Falcons
Option 1: The Falcons are -210 moneyline favorites against the Steelers, meaning a $100 wager would yield a $47.62 profit if they win. Based on my Super Bowl 51 projections, the Falcons would be -140 moneyline favorites against the Steelers and +100 moneyline underdogs against the Patriots. Rolling over that initial $147.62 wager would yield $253.06 if they defeat Pittsburgh and $295.24 in a matchup with New England.
Option 2: Wagering $100 on the Falcons to win the Super Bowl at +263 would yield a profit of $263 and a total return of $363. Therefore, it’s actually smarter to bet Atlanta to win the Super Bowl as opposed to rolling over a moneyline wager.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Option 1: The Steelers are +205 moneyline underdogs against the Patriots, meaning a $100 wager would yield a $205 profit if they win. Based on my Super Bowl 51 projections, the Steelers would be -110 against the Packers and +120 moneyline underdogs against the Falcons. Rolling over that initial $305 wager would yield $582.77 if they defeat Green Bay and $671.00 in a matchup with Atlanta.
Option 2: Wagering $100 on the Steelers to win the Super Bowl at +470 would yield a profit of $470 and a total return of $570. Regardless of their opponent, it would be more profitable to roll over your bet and take Pittsburgh’s moneyline in consecutive games.
4. Green Bay Packers
Option 1: The Packers are +175 moneyline underdogs against the Falcons, meaning a $100 wager would yield a $175 profit if they win. Based on my Super Bowl 51 projections, the Packers would be -110 against the Steelers and +155 moneyline underdogs against the Patriots. Rolling over that initial $275 wager would yield $525 if they defeat Pittsburgh and $701.25 in a matchup with New England.
Option 2: Wagering $100 on the Packers to win the Super Bowl at +506 would yield a profit of $506 and a total return of $606. That means it would be more profitable to roll over the moneyline if they were to play New England, but it would be more profitable to take their future price if they play Pittsburgh. However, this is not a 50/50 proposition. Based on the current moneyline there’s a 68.4% implied probability that New England will beat Pittsburgh.
That means there’s a 68.4% probability that moneyline bettors would make $701.25 and a 31.6% probability they would make $525. That’s works out to an expected value of $645.55. In other words, it’s would only be advisable to take the future price if your sportsbook is offering +546 or better and no sportsbook has the Packers listed at better than +515. Therefore, bettors should roll over the Packers moneyline in consecutive games.
Sportsbook Insider Pro subscribers have access to real-time odds, public betting trends, money percentages, bet signals (including steam moves and reverse line movement alerts), injury alerts, value meter, line watcher, line predictor, and many other unique features. Sign up now for a 4-day trial and start winning today!
Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Make sure to utilize our live chat or call us directly at 877-838-2853.
No Comments