What Should Bettors Know for the SEC Finals between Kentucky and Arkansas?
Despite failing to cover both SEC Tournament games, Kentucky is in the Finals and favored against a solid Arkansas team. On Saturday night, 5Dimes and CRIS opened Kentucky -7.5 while Pinnacle opened Kentucky -8, but where has the line been moving?
Within an hour of opening, 5Dimes moved Kentucky to -8 and -8.5 while CRIS and Pinnacle also moved Kentucky from -8 to -8.5. Once the line hit -8.5, we saw the line ping-pong all Sunday morning, dropping to -8 and increasing back to -8.5 at least 3 different times. Less than an hour to tipoff, the market actually dropped to Kentucky -7.5. Spread tickets had favored Arkansas in the early going, but now 60% of bets are taking Kentucky. This line seems to be right on, but the total has seen considerable one-sided movement.
As we’ve stressed throughout the postseason, Unders are very profitable as we hit the later rounds in conference tournaments. This is critical in Conference Finals, and totals quickly move when they open.
Unders have hit at a 56.2% rate in NCAAB Conference Tournament Finals since 2005, including a 64% rate this year.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) March 12, 2017
Kentucky/Arkansas opened 162.5 at CRIS but has already dropped 6 full points to 156.5.
This movement appears to be both public and sharp (60% of bets on Under), and at this point bettors are far too late to capitalize on the line movement. However, Premium and Pro members have access to features like Line Watcher, Line Predictors, Money Percentages and more in order to get ahead of the line moves.
No Comments