Which MLB Divisional Futures Are Offering Value?

Which MLB Divisional Futures Are Offering Value?

Earlier this month, the offshore sportsbook BetOnline posted odds for all six division winners. The Chicago Cubs opened as the odds-on favorite (-500) to win the NL Central, while the Cleveland Indians opened as massive chalk (-350) to win the AL Central.

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These are obviously two of the best teams in baseball, but Cleveland’s short odds also speak to the lack of competition in their division. For comparison, the Red Sox have shorter odds of winning the World Series than the Indians, but Boston’s only listed at -145 to win their division. In fact, the odds of either the Twins (+2000) or White Sox (+4000) winning the AL Central are extremely low.

Several weeks ago, FanGraphs released their projected standings for the entire league. This contained the expected win-loss record, playoff probabilities and divisional probabilities for all 30 teams. These forecasts utilize several different systems such as Steamer, ZiPS, and staff playing time estimates to project the 2017 MLB season. By comparing these projections with the divisional odds from BetOnline, we’re able to see which teams are being overvalued and which are being undervalued according to the FanGraphs projections.

The table below compares the latest divisional odds from BetOnline and the divisional probabilities from FanGraphs.

AL East

Team	Odds	Implied	FanGraphs
Boston Red Sox	-145	59.2%	59.7%
Toronto Blue Jays	+350	22.2%	21.9%
New York Yankees	+650	13.3%	5.0%
Baltimore Orioles	+800	11.1%	5.6%
Tampa Bay Rays	+1000	9.1%	8.1%

AL Central

Team	Odds	Implied	FanGraphs
Cleveland Indians	-350	77.8%	86.0%
Detroit Tigers	+450	18.2%	10.2%
Kansas City Royals	+900	10.0%	2.0%
Minnesota Twins	+2000	4.8%	1.6%
Chicago White Sox	+4000	2.4%	0.1%

AL West

Team	Odds	Implied	FanGraphs
Houston Astros	+105	48.8%	61.0%
Seattle Mariners	+300	25.0%	11.3%
Texas Rangers	+325	23.5%	11.5%
Los Angeles Angels	+900	10.0%	13.2%
Oakland Athletics	+2500	3.8%	3.0%

NL East

Team	Odds	Implied	FanGraphs
Washington Nationals	-150	60.0%	67.9%
New York Mets	+170	37.0%	27.8%
Miami Marlins	+1600	5.9%	3.7%
Atlanta Braves	+2000	4.8%	0.4%
Philadelphia Phillies	+3300	2.9%	0.3%

NL Central

Team	Odds	Implied	FanGraphs
Chicago Cubs	-500	83.3%	85.3%
St. Louis Cardinals	+700	12.5%	11.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates	+850	10.5%	3.1%
Milwaukee Brewers	+8000	1.2%	0.1%
Cincinnati Reds	+10000	1.0%	0.0%

NL West

Team	Odds	Implied	FanGraphs
Los Angeles Dodgers	-185	64.9%	79.0%
San Francisco Giants	+225	30.8%	19.3%
Colorado Rockies	+1000	9.1%	0.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks	+1800	5.3%	0.8%
San Diego Padres	+15000	0.7%	0.0%

Interestingly, there are two favorites that are still being undervalued by oddsmakers; the Houston Astros (+105) and Los Angeles Dodgers (-185). Based on the latest odds, there’s a 48.8% implied probability that the Astros will win the AL West and a 64.9% implied probability that the Dodgers will win the NL West. Based on FanGraphs projections, those odds should be -156 and -376, respectively.

It’s also important to note that these props take fairly low limits, and bettors would need to wait nearly six months to get paid out. For that reason, I would not recommend placing a wager on this prop bet — especially given the small payout on these divisional favorites.

Looking for real-time odds, public betting trends, futures and injury updates throughout the upcoming season? Make sure to bookmark our free MLB odds page.

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