25
October
NCAA Football Opening Line Report- Week 9
10/25/2011
Every Tuesday, we take a look at the early line movement and college football betting trends for the 15 most heavily bet games, in terms of the number of total bets.
| Team | Betting % | Current | Open | Notes |
| Troy | 19% | 6.5 | 6.5 | Lone Tuesday night matchup puts little-known Sun Belt Conference in national spotlight on ESPN 2. Despite FIU losing three of their last four games, the public remains heavy on the 4-3 Golden Panthers, with slightly more than 8 out of 10 bets confident that FIU can win by at least 7 points at home against a 2-4 Troy team with one of the worst statistical defenses in the nation. |
| Florida International | 81% | -6.5 | -6.5 | |
| Connecticut | 49% | 10.5 | 9.5 | This Big East showdown between 3-4 teams presents great value for the betting marketplace, with the public seemingly split down the middle as to who to take, even with the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to give road dog UCONN an additional point. Pitt may very will pick up the W at home, however with QB Tino Sunseri struggling as of late, look for the Panthers to lean heavily on star RB Ray Graham. |
| Pittsburgh | 51% | -10.5 | -9.5 | |
| Virginia | 25% | 13.5 | 14.5 | After beginning the year mired by suspensions to several star players, the 4-3 Hurricanes have bounced back to win two in a row and are flying high after a huge 24-7 victory over then #20 Georgia Tech last week. Conversely, the 4-3 Cavaliers are coming off a 28-14 loss at home to unranked NC State. With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a pivotal point away from Virginia, three out of four spread bets are confident that Jacory Harris and the U will continue their dominance and win by at least 14 points in front of their home crowd. |
| Miami (Florida) | 75% | -13.5 | -14.5 | |
| Rice | 12% | 27.5 | 26.5 | This Conference USA showdown is already one of the most lopsided bet games of the week. Led by QB Case Keenum, the Cougars have the #1 passing offense in the nation, a #18 overall ranking and spotless 7-0 record. Even with the sportsbooks taking a point away from public darling Houston, nearly 9 out of 10 bets remain heavy on the Cougars to blow out the 2-5 Owls by at least 28 points at home. |
| Houston | 88% | -27.5 | -26.5 | |
| BYU | 18% | 13.0 | 12.0 | The 5-2 Horned Frogs looked like gangbusters last week in a 69-0 victory, however it’s worth noting that it came against a 0-7 New Mexico team at the bottom of the Mountain West standings. However, even though BYU comes to town with a formidable 6-2 record and the sportsbooks have given an additional point to the road dog Cougars, the betting public remains heavily in favor of TCU, with more than 8 out of 10 bets taking the Horned Frogs to win by at least 14. |
| TCU | 82% | -13.0 | -12.0 | |
| Wisconsin | 88% | -7.0 | -7.5 | The Badgers broke the hearts of many bettors last week when they self-destructed on the road against Michigan State. Even so, nearly nine out of ten bets are sticking with them to bounce back and cover the spread against Ohio State, especially after the sportsbooks took a valuable half point away from the home dog Buckeyes. |
| Ohio State | 12% | 7.0 | 7.5 | |
| Clemson | 89% | -4.0 | -4.5 | The 8-0 Tigers have climbed all the way to #6 in the rankings and are among a dwindling elite of unbeaten teams. On the other side of the coin, the Yellow Jackets have lost two in a row after starting the season 6-0. As a result, the betting public is jumping on the Clemson bandwagon, with nearly 9 out of 10 bets taking Tahj Boyd and the Tigers to win by at least 5 on the road. |
| Georgia Tech | 11% | 4.0 | 4.5 | |
| Baylor | 14% | 14.0 | 15.5 | With a 7-0 record, the #3 Cowboys now control their own destiny and have their sights set on the BCS title game. And while the 4-2 Baylor Bears are no pushover, they are coming off a 55-28 blowout against Texas A&M. With the sportsbooks taking an additional 1.5 points away from Baylor, nearly 9 out of 10 bets are confident that Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon and Co. will upend Baylor by at least 15 points. |
| Oklahoma State | 86% | -14.0 | -15.5 | |
| Michigan State | 75% | -4.0 | -4.5 | The public fascination with Michigan State has grown leaps and bounds thanks to their thrilling upset of then #4 Wisconsin last week on a last second hail mary. And even though the #13 Cornhuskers are undefeated at home this season and possess the 7th ranked rushing game in the country, three out of four spread bets are sticking with the #9 Spartans to escape Nebraska with at least a five point victory. |
| Nebraska | 25% | 4.0 | 4.5 | |
| Oklahoma | 43% | -13.5 | -13.5 | The #11 Sooners saw their national title hopes go up in flames last week when they dropped a 41-38 decision at home to unranked Texas Tech. However, they enter Wildcat country favored by nearly two TDs against a #10 Kansas State club who is undefeated and coming off a 59-21 blowout of in-state rival Kansas. As a result, nearly 6 out of 10 bets are taking the points and banking on 7-0 K. State to keep it close at home. |
| Kansas State | 57% | 13.5 | 13.5 | |
| Stanford | 87% | -7.5 | -8.5 | NFL scouts will surely be watching this matchup closely, as the top two QBs in the nation, Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley, square off in Southern California. And while it is true that the 6-1 Trojans have jumped to #20 in the nation and possess one of the best statistical run defenses in the country, nearly 9 out of 10 bets are sticking with #4 Stanford to cover, especially against one of their smallest spreads of the season. |
| USC | 13% | 7.5 | 8.5 | |
| Kansas | 24% | 28.0 | 28.0 | After being torched 38-26 by Brandon Weeden and then #6 Oklahoma State last week, the Longhorns have fallen out of the top-25. Facing the 2-5 Jayhawks at home could be exactly what Texas needs to get back on track. Despite the large spread, more than three out of four bets are taking Texas to blowout Kansas by at least 29, especially after the Jayhawks were embarrassed 59-21 last week against K. State. |
| Texas | 76% | -28.0 | -28.0 | |
| NC State | 31% | 19.5 | 18.0 | With the public heavily in favor of the 4-3 Seminoles, the sportsbooks have adjusted their lines to give road dog NC State an additional 1.5 points. Even so, nearly 7 out of 10 bets are taking FSU to cover at home, especially after the ‘Noles have hung a pair of 41-16 victories over Maryland and Duke the past two weeks. |
| Florida State | 69% | -19.5 | -18.0 | |
| West Virginia | 78% | -7.0 | -7.0 | After falling to unranked Syracuse on the road 49-23 last week, the Mountaineers plummeted from #11 to #25 in the rankings. However, the betting public seems to view that stunning loss as an aberration, not a trend. Nearly 8 out of 10 bets are confident that Geno Smith and West Virginia will bounce back to take down the 5-2 Scarlet Knights by at least 8 points on the road. |
| Rutgers | 22% | 7.0 | 7.0 | |
| Iowa | 90% | -16.0 | -15.0 | This Big Ten showdown is one of the most lopsided bet games of the week, with 9 out of 10 bets taking the 5-2 Hawkeyes to win big on the road. As a result, the sportsbooks have added an additional point for the home dog Gophers, who have a 1-6 record and are winless in the conference. |
| Minnesota | 10% | 16.0 | 15.0 |
* Betting Percentages reflect Sports Insights’ Spread Betting Trends Data
** Opening and Current Lines from Pinnacle
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